The Eminiforecaster tentative forecast for the trading week ending May 8th is now posted. (click next week)

We expect the market to be up next week through Thursday PM / Friday AM and then start up from there.

This week our forecast ran into several days of Fed price action, which I forgot to discuss in the last update.  The Fed meetings can upset the natural cycle. As always, it is good to keep an eye on the major new reports anticipated on the news feed and calendar pages of the members area.

The market is trying to get some catch up going here to meet the natural cycle by being down today. If we are right, then we should see some more downside tomorrow, followed by an up week next week.

Volatility has kicked up a bit since last report.  We have hit multi-month highs.  It is difficult to fathom how the market can continue higher in the midst of such bad news and with the expectation of much more bad news to come.  We expect there will be more banking and real estate issues at some point that will shift the mood.  Of course this is well timed., as previously mentioned for the period following mid June.  The option pricing, which gives us information about the mood a month out or so is looking bearish to neutral.

Key levels to look for at this time are 885 and 900.  To the downside we see 845 and 832 as key.

As always, manage risk and prosper!

Rob, Vadim & Staff