We have been running this new feature - morning alerts for about two weeks now and the response from our members is great.

First update comes out at 10 am and shows what kind of day it is fixing up to be and then usually at 10:05 or later we alert our members of a long or short entry for the rest of the day or until the satisfactory profits are reached.

Here is an example of today’s alert with a results graph (click to enlarge) -

and here are some more examples from the past 2 weeks -

Of course this tool is not perfect and here are a couple of losers -

Here is how you can use Daily Guidance Alerts to help you trade -

- Do not trade against the alerts

- If the alert corresponds with the G-Line for that day you have a higher probability of a successful trade

- Gives you overall direction of the market and predicts the direction for the rest of the day

- In today’s volatile markets you can pick up 10-30 points a day

- Can be used for people who just want to trade once per day

- Losers are small and stops can be used

- Options traders can benefit greatly from our alerts as well

- We make improvements to the alerts based on your input, so when you join our team you too will have a hand in further development of this feature

If you still wonder exactly how this works here is a corresponding video recorded by Rob 2 weeks ago for our members, since then there have been some changes and improvements to the alerts -

By the way the forecast for this week is working out great, I won’t share the details but let’s just say we are nailing it!

To take advantage of the new feature and our G-Line forecasts sign up today -

Market has plummeted as was forecasted. Today - Tuesday market lapsed down as much as it was supposed to go down today. So the market performed what I call a “snap-back” to the G-Line. This happens often and you can see that in our past forecasts

Here is what I mean -

Depending on what the forecast looks like for the rest of the week a trader can either cover his shorts at the open or move his stop to lock in the profits.

This is a great example of why our forecasts should be used primeraly for weekly swings and not intraday noise.

Here is another example of the snap-back on the entire week -

Let’s look at the last 12 months and pick the best forecast results. But before we do that let’s first talk about the statistics of what we do so we can better under understand the implications of it all in the grand scheme of things.

We use 15 minute bars for our charts. There are about 130 bars in a week, so if you nail the direction for the week and the pivot/turn point to the bar (a perfect forecast for one pivot point) then the math comes out to be  (2*1/135)  a 1 in 270 chance from random (by the way, the 2 is for the direction of the forecast).  Therefore, picking at random, you’d expect to guess this correctly about 3.7 times in about 2 years time, or just under twice a year.

As this is achieved progressively with any accuracy, the odds against achieving this become staggering.  For example, if you were to pick two consecutive weekly market turning points with perfect accuracy, the probability of achieving this would be 2* 1/270 * 1/269, or 1 in 36,315.  That is one time in 36,315, 2 week periods or, once in many lifetimes!  Beyond this, the computations become increasingly complex, but as you can see, the odds against achieving consecutive accurate forecasts defies any reasonable measure very quickly.

Yes you can possibly get dumb (or smart) luck or pick up a tip or just use your experience/intuition but most people do not have those skills yet. I wouldn’t rely on indicators/oscillators for this task either, read Rob’s post where he takes apart this long-living myth.

This is where G-Lines come in. Keeping the 1 in 270 chance in mind let’s look at our Top 5 forecasts in the last 12 months. We will start in descending order -

#5. May 2008. Monday - a holiday, projected low on Tuesday comes in as projected missing by a couple of bars - market takes off for 40 points. Thursday afternoon market makes a projected high to the minute! While reversing on a dime we pick up another 5 points by Friday close for a total of 45 points or $2,250 per contract -

#4. October 2007. Monday low comes in to the bar, Friday high comes in to the bar. Market tried to deviate from the G-Line but it snapped back right to it just as fast. Total for the week - 50 points or $2,500 per contract -

#3. August 2008. Monday high comes in within several bars though going up a bit more than expected, in terms of the forecast it was nearly perfect. Market declines into both of the projected lows of Wednesday and Thursday giving us a nice 35 point drop. market starts taking off a bit early but still within projected lows. In fact if you look closely Friday and Thursday switched around - that happens sometimes. Further, market goes up into projected Friday high for another 25 points. The reason why this forecast is at number 3 spot is because we nailed 3 pivots in 1 week (I won’t even tell you the odds on that one!). Profit total - 60 points or $3,000 per contract -

#2. October 2007. High comes in on Monday open as forecasted and low comes in on Friday close to the bar! Simply put - perfect forecast. Profit total - 60+ points or $3,000 -

#1.

Monday looks pretty good - total match. Up from there into Wednesday high area for a nice 15 point pop. Then here is where all the fun begins. While “trend followers” are jumping head over heals on this market at the end of Wednesday, we know what is coming - instant death! Market plunges over 60 points by Friday projected low completing our forecast. Total profit - 75+ points or $3,750 per contract -

We do our best to have these type of forecasts as often as possible, but we cannot control the market ;-) . We just show what the market SHOULD do, it is up to it to follow our forecasts. When you think in terms of statistics and probabilities you will start to grasp the task at hand, however, we have proven in this post that predicting market perfectly is absolutely possible.

For more of our recent history go here http://eminiforecaster.com/history.html

After having a stellar run in late 2007 and early 2008, for whatever reason, the forecasts did struggle at taking out new equity highs from April through late August when we got back on track and produced some of our best forecasts ever.

EminiForecaster Equity Curve

The equity curve above is computed by following the forecasts long and short based on the date and time of the forecasted turns and exiting on Fridays.

EminiForecaster is a swing trading service based on market cycles that last around a week in length.  The cycles we trade attempt to identify weekly lows and highs in both time and price.  Most forecasting you will find out there is price based, focusing on only one of the two available axes.  Our method is time based.  Plus, we forecast prices in our weekly updates as a separate part of the service.  Therefore, it takes into consideration all dimensions of possible price action.

The service also gives daily updates each morning and as needed throughout the day so you have full support.  Support questions are typically answered by email in a short span of minutes.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss trading futures, stocks mutual funds and other financial instruments.

My mother passed in January of 1991 and left me about $100k.  She had
done well through the 80s investing in blue chip stocks and I knew of
her success.  Actually, noboby  in the family imagined she had amassed
a hidden fortune of about $650k even though we all knew she invested
in stocks while working at the phone company job she couldn’t stand to
be in.

When my grandfather passed in the mid 70s, he left me 500 bucks, which
my mother helped me to invest.  A number of shares of AT&T that began
to grow on her advice. I thought she had taught me something over the
years, so I could not begin to imagine that, when I told her, on her
deathbed, that I would do well with my inheritance, I did not have a
clue what I was talking about ;-).

I proudly opened a brokerage account with my new found fortune and
prepared to make it big!  Trading on full margin, using the infallible
principles of William O’Neil and his recommended 7% stops, I quickly
took that $100k down to around $30k.  Needless to say, I was
demoralized and also felt I had betrayed my own mother in my failure
(all this happened over only a few months time).  I felt bamboozeled!

I had two choices. One, I could fold and go back to my miserable life
licking my wounds, or, I could grab my own bootstraps and figure out
what on earth had just happened to me.  I grabbed my bootstraps, yes,
but I could not have ever imagined the incredible road it would take
me on.  An unforgettable journey of unconventional living…..

The first step in realizing you need to fix something, is in the
realization that you are the problem….

In my next post I will cover some of my background and how different
trading approaches have different statistics that impact your
personality and your ability to trade.

The Thursday posting is a tentative forecast that will assist you to have a bit of a heads-up on the forecast for the week to come.  Then, on Sunday the official forecast is posted.  The official Sunday forecast may have some changes from the tentative one from Thursday.  We send you an email when each of these is posted (usually after 6PM Eastern time).  Inside the email there are other points that can be helpful to your trading. Key levels that can be used for profit taking of other protective measures.  Also inside the email updates, we will give you our best interpretation of the forecast.  This will usually give you a generalized time where the turns are anticipated.  Then, combined with the key levels, you get a complete time and price forecast.

Many members trade the forecasts in different ways that is unique to their own style. For example, some member’s day trade using the forecasts in other ways. Some use the platform to make price projections with the G-lines and use that in a sell high, buy low strategy.  The interactive platform and video gives some good tips on how you might do this.  Because we designed the service to be used in many different ways by different users with different styles, the service can be used hopefully in a way that works well for your personal style of trading.  Here is an example of a Thursday night tentative foreast

And here is a Sunday final forecast-

As you can see - not much difference the high and the low are still on Monday and Friday - respectively.

Most people think that our forecast come out on Sunday, which they do, but most of the time THURSDAY forecast do not change coming into Sunday.