EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for April, 2014

EminiForecaster Tentative / Official Forecast (week ending 4/25/2014)

The Tentative / Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 25th 2014 has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

Due to the holiday today’s forecast will also be the official one for next week.  We expect the market to rise into mid week and then decline from there.  Keep in mind, holidays are reduced data forecasts, and markets can move differently around holidays so tighter risk management may be most prudent during these times.

Our projections for the coming week are showing 1911 above and the low end is showing 1800 as a potential target. This method operates on about the 70% probability level over time.

Cycling below the 1844 area is bearish, above it is bullish. We are currently in bullish territory.

Monday, an open below 1852.00 is bearish. An open above 1859.25 is bullish. In between these levels is neutral and ranging is more likely.

The volatility has been declining in recent days and this is bullish howevery we are also pushing into some potential resistance areas. A close above 1867 will be bullish and the next target area higher would be the 1889 area.

We have a quiet report schedule next week. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

In order to view last week’s history, click here: http://eminiforecaster.com/history.html

Enjoy the Holiday-

EMF Team

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The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 18th 2014 has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise for the first two days and then decline from there.

Our projections for the coming week are showing 1864 above and the low end is showing 1775 as a potential target. This method operates on about the 70% probability level over time.

Cycling below the 1840 area is bearish, above it is bullish. We are currently in bearish territory and view the market as being bearish below this level.

Monday, an open below 1811.00 is bearish. An open above 1822.25 is bullish. In between these levels is neutral and ranging is more likely.

The volatility has been rising substantially in recent days and this is bearish. The market has also been declining on fairly high volume and this is also bearish.  A bullish open on Monday above 1822 will likely shake out some bears however, this would require abotu a 10 point gap upwards Monday AM which is not particularly likely. This goes against the current forecast. However, we are at or near key support and this will likely attract some buying activity early in the week.  Caution is advised as volatility is high and this effectively creates leverage. As a result, scaling down position sizing may also be a prudent strategy.

We have a moderately busy report schedule next week with no reports on Friday. Though significant key reports are out on Monday-Thursday  Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

In order to view last week’s history, click here: http://eminiforecaster.com/history.html

Have a great trading week!

EMF Team

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The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 11th 2014 has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise into mid week and then decline from there.

Our projections for the coming week are showing 1898 above and the low end is showing 1850 as a potential target. The tightness of this range is suggesting consolidation.  This method operates on about the 70% probability level over time.

The volatility has been declining substantially in recent days but rose substantially in the last two days and this is bearish.

Cycling below the 1876 area is bearish, above it is bullish. We are currently in bearish territory and will view the market as being bearish below this level.

Monday, an open below 1856.25 is bearish. An open above 1882.50 is bullish. In between these levels is neutral and ranging is more likely.  Use caution this week especially in the early days of the week to see if we are getting a bullish or bearish open for the week. A bullish open, particularly on Monday will likey increase the probability of a good forecast.

We have a moderately busy report schedule next week with reports each day except Monday and FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The report density increases as the week progresses. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

In order to view last week’s history, click here: http://eminiforecaster.com/history.html

EMF Team

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The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 4th 2014 has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

The forecast has changed this week. We expect the market to rise into mid week and then decline from there.

Our projections for the coming week are showing 1882 above and the low end is showing 1819 as a potential target.  This method operates on about the 70% probability level over time.

The volatility has been declining in recent days and this is bullish. The forecast is now going with this at this time. We typically like to see the forecast going with volatility as it can tend to lead the market a bit.

Cycling below the 1850 area is bearish, above it is bullish. We are currently at this level, so the market is in a neutral state.

Monday, an open below 1849.25 is bearish. An open above 1858.75 is bullish. In between these levels is neutral and ranging is more likely.

We have a busy report schedule next week with reports each day. There may be uncertainty regarding banks meeting the stress test results due out on Wednesday. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

In order to view last week’s history, click here: http://eminiforecaster.com/history.html

EMF Team

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