EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for August, 2013

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 30th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next week into Thursday and then decline from there.

Last week the forecast was correct overall though the bottoming was confused a bit due to the FOMC report.

We are seeing a decline in volatility following an mild increase over the last 10 trading days or so.  This is bullish.  Often this time of year brings with it volatility. So we will watch increases carefully going forward. This is typically true through about the third week of October.  Higher volatility is typically bearish and lower volatility is bullish.

Our projections for the coming week are showing 1688 above and the low end is showing 1625 as a potential target.  This method operates on about the 70% probability level over time.

Cycling below the 1452 area is bearish, above it is also bullish. We are currently in bullish territory as of today’s close.

Monday, an open below 1655 is bearish. An open above 1658 is bullish. In between these levels is neutral and ranging is more likely.

We have a busy report schedule next week with reports on each day of the week. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

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The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 23rd has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next week into the Tuesday close / Wednesday open area and then rise from there.

Last week the forecast turned a couple hours early and was correct overall.

In the last 7 weeks, we have seen the volatility (range) drop substantially and is currently at about 16.2  points per day (and has been ticking up which is bearish) average range (which is ticking up from last week).

Lower volatility is not seasonally normal and we would expect more and/or increasing volatility during this time of the year and also going forward into the fall months. Higher volatility is typically bearish and lower volatiltiy is bullish.

Our projections for the coming week are showing 1670.50 above and the low end is showing 1641 as a potential target. This projection is quite narrow so this model is expecting the marekt to consolidate somewhat.  This method operates on about the 70% probability level over time.

Using another method of analysis, we see there is a substantial area of support on the chart starting at about the 1620 level.  So, if we break lower early in the week, this level is expected.

Cycling below the 1666 area is bearish, above it is also bullish. We are currently in bearish territory as of today’s close.

Monday, an open below 1653 is bearish. An open above 1660 is bullish. In between these levels is neutral and ranging is more likely.

We have a thin report schedule next week with reports on Wednesday through Friday and FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

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The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 16th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next week into mid week and then decline from there.

Last week the forecast was correct turned as planned.

We are still currently at or near all time highs so some resistance may be expected in the current area which could lead to consolidation and/or profit taking. So, if we go higher as planned, some resistance may be expected.

In the last 6 weeks, we have seen the volatility (range) drop substantially and is currently at about 12 points per day average range. This is fundamentally bullish.  However, this rally has been occurring on substantially declining volume which is not particularly healthy in the longer term.  The current volatility is not seasonally normal and we would expect more and/or increasing volatility during this time of the year and also going forward into the fall months. Higher volatility is typically bearish and lower volatiltiy is bullish.

Our projections for the coming week are showing 1708 as a target at about the 70% probability level.  The low end is showing 1670 as a potential target if downside cycling comes into play.  You may have noted this has not changed much in the last few weeks. This is consistent with the range trading we have been doing in the stock indexes.

Cycling below the 1692 area is bearish, above it is also bullish. We are currently in bearish territory as of Friday’s close.

Monday, an open below 1686.50 is bearish. An open above 1692.25 is bullish. In between these levels is neutral and ranging is more likely.

We have a fairly busy report schedule next week with reports on each day of the week except Monday. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

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The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 9th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to decline next week into the Tuesday PM / Wednesday AM area and then rise from there.

This last week the forecast was right for the first half of the week but the market failed to turn as predicted.  This came following better than expected reports.

We are currently at or near all time highs so some resistance may be expected in the current area which could lead to consolidation and/or profit taking. We are also in a strong upward trend. As a result, a down cycle may be less likley to be of significant magnitude without some negative news to induce it. This can often be connected with early turns in the direction of the trend.

In the last 5 weeks, we have seen the volatility (range) drop substantially and is currently at about 15 points per day average range. This is fundamentally bullish.  However, this rally has been occurring on substantially declining volume which is not particularly healthy in the longer term.

Our projections for the coming week are showing 1712 as a target at about the 70% probability level.  The low end is showing 1689 as a potential target if downside cycling comes into play.

Cycling below the 1697 area is bearish, above it is also bullish. We are currently in bullish territory and had a bullish close on Friday. If we do not see a bearish open Monday more upside would be expected and the Gline forecast will more likely be wrong.

Monday, an open below 1697.25 is bearish. An open above 1702.25 is bullish. In between these levels is neutral and ranging is more likely.

We have a pretty thin report schedule next week with reports on each day of the week but of lesser importance than the current week. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

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The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 2nd has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There is a change to the tentative forecast.  We expect the market to rise next week into the Tuesday close / Wednesday open area and then decline from there.

This last week the turn came right on time following a lackluster up cycle.

We are currently near all time highs and so some resistance may be expected in the area around 1696 to 1700.

In the last 4 weeks, we have seen the volatility (range) drop substantially and is currently at abut 13 points per day average range. This is fundamentally bullish.  However, this rally has been occurring on substantially declining volume which is not particularly healthy.

Our projections for the coming week are showing 1696 as a target at about the 70% probability level.  The low end is showing 1663 as a potential target if downside cycling comes into play.

The size of the daily range recently as a percentage of the cycles has been large and we are trading in a range.  Breakout is likely from the range defined by 1666 on the bottom and 1696 on the top. Cycling outside  this area will fairly likely be associated with trend.  Cycling below the 1684 area is bearish, above it is also bullish.

Monday, an open below 1675.75 is bearish. An open above 1686.50 is bullish. In between these levels is neutral and ranging is more likely.

We have a very busy report schedule next week with reports on each day of the week. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

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