EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for July, 2013

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 26th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to rise next week into the Tuesday area  and then decline from there.

This last week the turn came early by a day and the market failed to cycle through our key 1664 area (the criteria necessary to trigger a bearish condition).  We did manage to close at the high for the week.  Therefore, the bull run on low volatility continues.

In the last 3 weeks, we have seen the volatility (range) drop from 32 points per day to 12. This is bullish.  We have seen consolidation in recent days (this week) and the cycles are topping.  Testing the 1700 level which is about 24 points away is not unlikely.

Our projections for the coming week are showing 1703 as a target at about the 70% probability level. This rally has been occurring on declining volume which is not particularly healthy.  The low end is showing 1662 as a potential target if downside cycling comes into play.

We are currently testing the May high and due to the range, I see the following scenarios. Cycling below the 1676 area is bearish. Otherwise consolidation to higher is expected and is consistent with the Gline forecasting model.

We have a fairly thin report schedule next week with reports on each day of the week. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Today we closed in bullish territory. Monday, an open below 1680 is a bearish. An open above 1685 is bullish.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

  • Comments Off

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 19th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to decline next week into the Wednesday / Thursday area  and then rise from there.

This last week the Gline forecast failed to identify the turn and the expected rally continued.   I had issued a warning about the rally potentially continuing and the impact of the holiday data on the cycling.  Sometimes the cycle takes a bit of time to get back on when this occurs.  This is the exact reason I suggest, as I did last week that the market would need to cycle below 1613 to become bearish and this never materialized.  I will say the same thing for this coming week. If the market does not cycle below 1664 then I will expect the bullish trend to continue and / or that we will see consolidation in the face of a down cycle.
We are currently in bullish territory. Cycling below 1664 will be bearish.

Volatility continues to decline. This is typically bullish.

We have a busy report schedule next week with reports on every day except Friday. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1719 region above and the 1621 area below.  These levels are designed to operate on about a 70% probability level over time.

Monday, an open below 1667.75 is a bearish sign. Above 1671.75 is bullish.  In between, ranging is more likely.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

  • Comments Off

The Tentative / Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 12th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to decline following Monday for the week.

This last week the Gline forecast failed to identify the turn and the expected rally continued following the holiday into our weekly anticipated high of the 1632 area.

Holidays can make for more difficult forecasting as the missing data from the holiday can have a fairly large impact on cycling. That being said, if we do not begin to see bearins activity starting Monday to Tuesday AM, the marekt may continue higher into the 1648 area. This region from 1632 to 1648 is a likely turn area to test lower for a few days and is consistent with the current forecast. However, as mentioned with missing data, look for the short based on bearish activity first.

We are currently in bullish territory. Cycling below 1613 will be bearish.  Monday will show bearish signs if we open below the 1613 level. If we open above that ranging to more upside is expected. This is, of course fairly likely and so look for some rolling over on Monday to Tuesday AM.

Volatility has continued to be in decline. This is typically bullish.

We have a moderately busy report schedule next week starting Wednesday and have FOMC minutes on Wednesday as well. Look for volatility following and/or leading into this event. Be sure to check the schedule for times: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1649 region above and the 1592 area below.  These levels are designed to operate on about a 70% probability level over time.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

  • Comments Off