EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for March, 2013

The Tentative / Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 5th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We again expect the market to decline into the Wednesday close / Thursday Open area and then rise from there.

Trading the counter-trend this week was difficult as is often the case when the forecaster generates a counter-trend forecast in a strong trend the other way. This is a topic e have discussed many times in this report.

Volatility has been in a bit of a decline in recent days which is bullish however we are toying with new all time highs in the S&P and market forecasting in range is often different at or above new highs than cycle trading in range.

This forecast is also the official forecast for the coming week due to the market holiday on Friday.

The S&P cash index was tagged today based on reports from Bloomberg.  The market may be inclined to see some selling at this level as previously discussed.

Due to consolidation this last week, we currently (still) see the market as bearish below 1561.25 and bullish above it. We are currently above this slightly and this is bullish for now.

Monday AM, we will want to see an open above 1563.25 to be bullish, If we open below 1559 this is bearish. In between  these levels is neutral and may invite ranging.

We have a very busy report schedule next week with reports on every day of the week. Be sure to check the schedule: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1576 region above and the 1538 area below. These levels operate on about a 70% probability level over time. We have tagged our upper target for last week as of today.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember your billing on your credit card statement will now read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 29th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline into the Wednesday close / Thursday Open area and then rise from there.

We have seen an increase in volatility as expected. The average daily ranges have increased from 9 to 19 points in the last week. This, of course is bearish and is consistent with the forecast.

The market followed the forecast last week and we probed higher and then consolidated with a push higher at the end of the week closing at 1553.75 on the week.

The S&P cash index is still very close to the the 1578 level as the market volatility increases. If we hit this goal, the market may be even more inclined to see some selling at this level as previously discussed. It is important to look at this level on the cash index as the futures data can skew such readings. This corresponds on the June contract to about the 1571 area.  Be aware of sell offs following probes higher.

Due to consolidation this last week, we currently (still) see the market as bearish below 1549.50 and bullish above it. We are currently below and this is bearish.

Monday AM, we will want to see an open above 1550 to be bullish, If we open below 1548.50 this is bearish. In between  these levels is neutral and may invite ranging.

We have a busy report schedule next week with an FOMC members speaking on Monday and reports on every other day. Be aware that the FOMC wants this market higher so they will likely try to influence it this way. We have been in consolidation in recent days overall, with increasing volatility.  As a result, reports will have a significant influence inthe sahping of the coming week. Be sure to check the schedule: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1562 region above and the 1527 area below. These levels operate on about a 70% probability level over time.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember your billing on your credit card statement will now read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 29th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline into the Wednedsay close / Thursday Open area and then rise from there.

We have seen an increase involatility as expected. The average daily ranges have increased from 9 to 15.6 points in the last week. This, of course is bearish and is consistent with the forecast.

The market followed the forecast last week and we probed higher and then consolidated.

The S&P cash index is still very close to the the 1578 level as the market volatility increases. If we hit this goal, the market may be even more inclined to see some selling at this level as previously discussed. It is important to look at this level on the cash index as the futures data can skew such readings. This corresponds on the June contract to about the 1571 area.  Be aware of sell offs following probes higher.

Due to consolidation this last week, we currently (still) see the market as bearish below 1549.50 and bullish above it. We are currently below and this is bearish.

Tomorrow (Friday AM), we will want to see an open above 1546.50 to be bullish, If we open below 1540.75 this is bearish. In between  these levels is neutral and may invite ranging. We have reports tomorrow so some volatility may be expected.

We have a busy report schedule next week with an FOMC members speaking on Monday and reports on every other day.  Be sure to check the schedule: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1564 region above and the 1513 area below. These levels operate on about a 70% probability level over time.

I will update this over the weekend.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember your billing on your credit card statement will now read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 22nd. has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

The forecast is unchanged. We expect the market to continue its ascent next week with consolidation mid week. Be advised that the market has opened down (Sunday night) about 15 points on negative news out of Europe. It is possible this could linger and, as mentioned, this is an FOMC week so expect some (more) volatility.

The market followed the forecast last week and we probed higher as expected. We are experiencing contracted range as is typical of a bull market condition with daily ranges of only about 9 points.

The S&P cash index is very close to the the 1578 level where we would expect to see some selling or consolidation as I have been mentioning in recent weeks. It is important to look at this level on the cash index as the futures data can skew such readings. This corresponds on the June contract to about the 1571 area.

We currently see the market as bearish below 1549.50 and bullish above it. As a result, failure to recover to this key level early in the week will be bearish.

Tomorrow (Monday AM), we will want to see an open above 1555 to be bullish, If we open below 1552 this is bearish. In between  these levels is neutral and may invite ranging. We have reports tomorrow so some volatility may be expected.

We have a fairly quiet report schedule next week with an FOMC meeting on Wednesday so remember that as it could impact forecasting.  We continue to expected that the bulls will look for bargains in market declines.   Be sure to check the schedule:

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1558 region above and the 1522 area below. These levels operate on about a 70% probability level over time.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember your billing on your credit card statement will now read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 22nd. has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to continue its ascent next week with consolidation mid week.

The market followed the forecast this week and we probed higher as expected. We are experiencing contracted range as is typical of a bull market condition with daily ranges of only about 9 points.

The S&P cash index is very close to the the 1578 level where we would expect to see some selling or consolidation as I have been mentioning in recent weeks; about 15 points away. It is important to look at this level on the cash index as the futures data can skew such readings.
So, be aware that area about 15 points above where we are now is resistance. This corresponds on the June contract to about the 1571 area.

We currently see the market as bearish below 1549 and bullish above it.

Tomorrow, we will want to see an open above 1556 to be bullish, If we open below 1553 this is bearish. In between  these levels is neutral and may invite ranging. We have reports tomorrow so some volatility may be expected.

We have a fairly quiet report schedule next week with an FOMC meeting on Wednesday so remember that as it could impact forecasting.  We continue to expected that the bulls will look for bargains in market declines.   Be sure to check the schedule:

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1573 region above and the 1534 area below. These levels operate on about a 70% probability level over time.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember your billing on your credit card statement will now read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 15th. has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There is no change to the forecast. We expect the market to continue its ascent next week, all week.

The market was relatively lackluster this last week follow some upside early in the week. Those who have been with us a long while know that these G-line down cycles in bigger uptrends can be less than one might expect. This is also why I have recently been posting the levels where I am saying the market is bullish above a certain level and bearish below it. It is worth keeping an eye on.

The S&P cash index is nearing the 1578 level where we would expect to see some selling or consolidation; 27 points away. It is important to look at this level on the cash index as the futures data can skew such readings.
So, be aware that area about 27 points above where we are now is resistance. This corresponds on the June contract to about the 1571 area.

We currently see the market as bearish below 1539 and bullish above it.

Tomorrow (Monday), we will want to see an open above 1544.50 to be bullish, If we open below 1539.25 this is bearish. In between  these levels is neutral and may invite ranging. We have reports tomorrow so some volatility may be expected.  This is especially the case following the range consolidation we have seen over the last 3 days.

We again have a fairly busy report schedule next week starting Wednesday through Friday with no reports on Monday and Tuesday. Earnings continue to come in better than expected on the longer time scale but since the beginning of the Month, earnings have started to be a bit more lackluster. Therefore caution is urged if this trend continues.  Otherwise, it is expected that the bulls will look for bargains in market declines.   Be sure to check the schedule:

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1581 region above and the 1502 area below. These levels operate on about a 70% probability level over time.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 15th. has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to continue its ascent next week, all week.

The market was relatively lackluster this week follow some upside early in the week. Those who have been with us a long while know that these G-line down cycles in bigger uptrends can be less than one might expect. This is also why I have recently been posting the levels where I am saying the market is bullish above a certain level and bearish below it. It is worth keeping and eye on.

The S&P cash index is nearing the 1578 level where we would expect to see some selling or consolidation; 34 points away. It is important to look at this level on the cash index as the futures data can skew such readings.
So, be aware that area about 34 points above where we are now is resistance. This corresponds on the June contract to about the 1573 area.

We currently see the market as bearish below 1539 and bullish above it.

Tomorrow, we will want to see an open above 1539 to be bullish, If we open below 1537.50 this is bearish. In between  these levels is neutral and may invite ranging. We have reports tomorrow so some volatility may be expected.  This is especially the case following the range consolidation we have seen over the last 3 days.

It is possible the Official forecast could be different this week. Tomorrow’s price action could influence the forecaster. Keep that in mind.

We again have a fairly busy report schedule next week. Earnings continue to come in better than expected.  The expect that the bulls will look for bargains in market declines under these circumstances.   Be sure to check the schedule:

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1578 region above and the 1495 area below. These levels operate on about a 70% probability level over time.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 8th. has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week into the Tuesday / Wednesday area and then rise from there.

The market followed the forecast well this week. Monday we had a sell off that was difficult to anticipate but then the market recovered to follow as expected. A fairly narrow range was anticipated and we did experience range expansion. This has bearish implications going forward.

We are seeing the market as bearish below 1510 and bullish above it at this time.

In recent weeks we have seen a decline in upward momentum and a turning in the weekly cycle with fairly high volume. This has also occurred with increasing range. This tends to be bearish. However we will want to watch that key 1510 region to see if it holds.  In contrast, the longer term, Monthly cycle is showing declining volatility and some upward momentum. On the daily cycle chart, we are seeing an almost doubling of range since the 18th. This comes with a momentum that is moving upwards in recent days. Caution is urged as many of the indications are in disagreement.  Disagreement is often associated with downward markets but at the same time the larger time frames are up. So, this wee we look to see if the bulls begin to lose some control of this fairly long term bull market.  Earnings continue to come in better than expected however governmental actions are influencing things negatively. This results in volatility and/or uncertainty.  The 1578 level on the SPX index is a key resistance level and we are currently at 1518 in that index. The forecast looks for some selling or consolidation the first couple days of this week followed by more upside.

Tomorrow (Monday), we will want to see an open above 1518.25 to be bullish, If we open below 1509.25 this is bearish. In between  these levels is neutral and may invite ranging. We have reports tomorrow so some volatility may be expected.

We have a fairly quiet report schedule next week. Earnings continue to come in better than expected.  The expect that the bulls will look for bargains in market declines under these circumstances.   Be sure to check the schedule: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1543 region above and the 1476 area below.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 8th. has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week into the Tuesday / Wednesday area and then rise from there.

The market followed the forecast well this week so far. Monday we had a sell off that was difficult to anticipate but then the market recovered to follow as exprected. A fairly narrow range was anticipated and we did experience range expansion. This has bearish implications going forward.

We were seeing the market as bearish below 1516 and bullish above it.

Tomorrow, we will want to see an open above 1520.75 to be bullish, If we open below 1514.00 this is bearish. In between  these levels is neutral and may invite ranging. We have reports tomorrow so some volatility may be expected.

We have a fairly quiet report schedule next week. Earnings continue to come in better than expected.  The expect that the bulls will look for bargains in market declines under these circumstances.   Be sure to check the schedule: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1550 region above and the 1483 area below.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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