EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for February, 2013

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 1st. has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Click “Next Week”)

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next week into the Wednesday / Thursday area and then decline or consolidate from there.

The market followed the forecast pretty much straight on last week.  We were seeing the market as bullish above 1513. We closed above this level on Friday and this puts us back into bullish territory. We are only a couple points through it however, and we have no reports on Monday so use caution there as we may possibly see some consolidation.

The profile of the market in the last 5 days is not particularly clear and is somewhat “b” shaped. These formations can be retraced sometimes and we will want to see the market showing some upside strength earlier in the week. Monday, we will want to see an open above 1510.75 to be bullish, If we open below 1504.50 this is bearish. In between  these levels is neutral and may invite ranging. This is true particularly in the absence of reports.

We consider 1513 as the inflection point at which we become bullish.

We have a full report schedule next week so look for some volatility. Earnings continue to come in better than expected, but comments from the FOMC minutes sent the market south. The question is, can this be the catalyst for changing sentiment a bit. Tomorrow’s open should give us a clue about this.  Be sure to check the schedule:

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1519.50 region above and the 1498 area below.

The weekly range is as low as it has been in over a year. This is indicative of complacency. Last week the FOMC minutes indicated there may be disagreement as to the continuation of free money for the markets and the market did not like it. This may be an indication of a change in things going forward. So, we have an up cycle for this week, but with a potential for downward bias going forward. If we see lack luster upside movement in the first couple days of the week, do not be surprised if the cycle turns a bit early.  The range in the last 5 days or so has doubled and this is bearish.  Our cycles have begun to turn south a bit on the weekly and daily cycle charts.  So, unless the bulls gain some control early on, as mentioned, use caution this week.

This is what I have for you this week.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 1st. has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week into the Wednesday / Thursday area and then decline or consolidate from there.

The market has declined as expected with the forecast and it occurred with a range expansion that is somewhat bearish; at least on initial analysis. This is a range expansion that was likely way over due as daily ranges in the ES have been quite contracted recently.

We consider 1513 as the inflection point at which we become bullish; about 10 points higher than right now.

We have a full report schedule next week so look for some volatility. Earnings continue to come in better than expected, but comments from the FOMC minutes sent the market south. The question is, can this be the catalyst for changing sentiment a bit. Tomorrow’s open should give us a clue about this.  Be sure to check the schedule: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1519.50 region above and the 1487 area below.

Tomorrow, if we open above 1504 it is bullish. Below 1499 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected. This open and the action tomorrow could possibly influence the forecast for next week, so keep that in mind.

I will update these levels over the weekend.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Tentative / Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 22nd has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week into the Wednesday PM /  Thursday AM area and then rise from there.  We have a holiday on Monday which makes forecasting a bit more difficult, especially in the contracted range we are seeing.

In the last week, the range has been contracted and we did probe up to the 1522 level; a couple points below the proposed minimum target for the week.  The market has followed the G-line this week more-or-less as forecasted.

My focus in the last couple weeks is to trade following the sell offs with the long side. This has been a good strategy but we may be seeing some turning in the last couple days to the downside and an open below value may be fairly bearish for the next coming days. I will look for confirmation of this tomorrow AM and will look to see an open below about 1515.50 or so to initialize more selling. Some traders will take a long weekend here due to the holiday so trading tomorrow may be a bit thinner than usual.  We do have some important reports so check the schedule at http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html.

The market is closed Monday so this report will constitute the official forecast for the coming week.

We are have been toying with new high territory and closed today (Thursday) near multi-year highs.  Earnings continue to come in better than analyst expectations and this is also bullish. I had mentioned this before, but it is worth mentioning again as it is not a mute point.  This is likely the main driving factor behind the rally and the flight to quality resulting from the state of the world economy; the USA may just be perceived as a better risk right now.

The ranges also continue to decline with the weekly range near 20 points. This is low and is a sign of complacency. As a result, unless we have some bearish news, I urge caution about getting too aggressive on shorts. As the bigger cycle is up and this down cycle will likely reflect that. The volume in the last week is quite low and this is a bit bearish.

Overall, we are seeing this pushing into new high territory on low volume but this last week, we saw the highest volume in 7 weeks. This is also bullish. I still expect as we push into that 1550 area previously mentioned in the SPX index, then some selling may be in order. Keep in mind however that futures traders may not be looking at these cash charts and may try to sell early in the week. Watch the levels Monday AM for this. If we open below 1511, that may have bearish implications. Use caution in this case. If we open between 1511 and 1514, then expect some consolidation, and above this bullish.

The report schedule includes FOMC minutes on Wednesday  with the bulk of potentially market moving reports on Wednesday and Thursday.  The FOMC minutes of course have some healthy market moving potential but the last meeting market action was so lackluster I am suspicious this one might be similar. Be sure to check the schedule: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html.

The  www.DayTradingTargets.com is quickly advancing to be ready for the BEAT testing and we have been working around the clock to get this site ready.  We are still going to accept a few more BETA testers for the site before I close out the program. If you’d like to help out, be sure to sign up there. In the meantime, you can get the daily Target Levels on my twitter feed. Join the feed @MarketTraderRob on Twitter for those key intraday price levels. This is offered at no charge to you, so take advantage of it.

We now consider the market to be bullish above the 1513 level. Cycling below this level is bearish.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1538 region above and the 1495 area below.  The rang is quite contracted and the weekly target system is potentially expecting some range expansion.

For tomorrow an open above 1520 is bullish, below 1515.50 bearish and between ranging is expected.

Have a great holiday!

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 15th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next week into the Wednesday / Thursday area and then decline from there.

This last week, the G-line was pretty much on target as I had predicted. We also predicted in the Thursday Update that the market could likely go to the 1515 weekly target level. Humorously it went to this level to the tick and then consolidated. This does not always occur , but I do not mind taking credit for it when it does :-)  Overall, we closed the week up as expected and as was consistent with the forecast.

As mentioned last week, the G-Line forecaster is based purely on cycle analysis. The market cycles in different ways at different times. As a market begins to trend, the cycles expand. This can often be seen in advance of the trend as I have written about in many articles on the www.MarketTradersJournal.com blog. What the forecaster cannot do however is see outside of its range so, as we get to new highs etc. on large expanding cycles, the forecaster can decrease its accuracy. This is why it is very important to read these updates so I can help you to interpret the lines.  The updates since the beginning of the year vs. the G-line forecasts are an excellent example of this.

We are pushing into new high territory and closed today (Friday) at a new multi year high. This, of course is quite bullish. Earnings continue to come in better than analyst expectations and this is also bullish. This is likely the main driving factor behind the rally and the flight to quality resulting from the state of the world economy; the USA may just be perceived as a better risk right now.

This push to new highs is occurring on declining weekly (and Monthly) volatility. This also is bullish and is indicative of a complacent bull market. The weekly and monthly cycle charts are showing a topping of cycle, but as mentioned, due to the low (and declining) volatility, more upside may be expected. Tight trading ranges often make intraday trading difficult during these times and I have addressed this issue before in previous editions of this update. In the last week, in contrast to the weekly and monthly cycles, the daily cycle the volatility is actually increasing. I would normally say this is short term bearish, but with the close at new highs today, it is bullish as long as we see continued buying Monday.

Overall, we are seeing this pushing into new high territory on low volume but this last week, we saw the highest volume in 7 weeks. This is also bullish. I still expect as we push into that 1550 area previously mentioned in the SPX index, then some selling may be in order.  Keep in mind however that futures traders may not be looking at these cash charts and may try to sell early in the week.  Watch the levels Monday AM for this. If we open below 1511, that may have bearish implications. Use caution in this case. If we open between 1511 and 1514, then expect some consolidation, and above this bullish.

There are no reports on Monday so the market should be dominated by technical trading. So unless there are negative world events over the weekend, things should be more-or-less as described above.

For the rest of the week, is much busier than this last week. Retail sales is often a market mover. We have that on Wednesday. Unemployment on Thursday and Consumer sentiment on Friday. Monday and Tuesday are lacking reports so the first couple days should be dominated by trend and or technical trading. Be sure to check the schedule: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html.

I will again repeat: It is important to be aware that central banks around the world are on an unprecedented money printing scheme. There are dangers that lurk and it is possible trouble could be lurking in the shadows. For this reason, if you are exposed in the markets, it is not a bad idea to keep a pulse of the news.  But, as long as earnings beat expectation, things should overall be fairly complacent. Keep some good risk management in place.

If you are inclined to trade intraday, please look at our new sister site that has a daily trading plan each day in addition to other resources: www.MarketTradersJournal.com. These levels and commentary on the daily trading plans are a nice supplement to the EMF forecasts and can help you to keep tabs on the bigger picture that is offered here during the trading week. These methods of forecasting on Market Traders Journal are completely different from EminiForecaster and are looking at a shorter one day time volume analysis frame as opposed to the weekly cycle based forecasting we do here. This is offered at no charge for a limited time. So I urge you to take advantage of it if it fits your style.

I also have a new site in development that may be of benefit to you: www.DayTradingTargets.com  We are looking for BETA testers for the site. If you’d like to help out, be sure to sign up there. In the meantime, you can get the daily Target Levels on my twitter feed. Join the weed @MarketTraderRob on Twitter for those key intraday price levels. This is offered at no charge to you, so take advantage of it.

We now consider the market to be bullish above the 1506 level. Cycling below this level is bearish.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1524 region above and the 1495 area below.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 15th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Members Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week into the Wednesday / Thursday area and then decline or consolidate from there.

The market has been largely in a mode of consolidation this week with an upward bias as expected. We are also seeing some expanding range while in a rally. This can be bearish in some instances.  So, while in this mode, we will look for continued upside but should be vigilant about bad reports. Earnings have continued to come in as largely better than expected and this has also been a big part of us pushing into higher territory. In this environment, it is not unlikely that we will continue to try to push higher with occasional tests lower.  If we see bad news coming in we should use caution however int he face of increasing volatility. Daily ranges are averaging close to 16 points, so this is about 1% each day.

We still consider 1496 as the point at which we become bullish. We tested this level today and traded higher so this is bullish in the near term. Because of this we do not expect any changes to the current forecast over the weekend.

Next week’s report schedule is much busier than this last week. Retail sales is often a market mover. We have that on Wednesday. Unemployment on Thursday and Consumer sentiment on Friday. Monday and Tuesday are lacking reports so the first couple days should be dominated by trend and or technical trading. Be sure to check the schedule: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

We now consider the market to be bullish above the 1496 level as mentioned. Cycling below this level is bearish.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1524 region above and the 1486 area below. We had predicted a minimum target of 1515 this week but have not gotten to this level yet. Look at the Daily Targets for the ES Emini Futures on my Twitter feed. @MarketTraderRob to see if the morning suggests potential for this general level. If we have a bullish open maybe we will make a run for it. The Daily Targets have had a 100% hit rate in the last week so it is worth checking out.

I will update these levels over the weekend.

Tomorrow, if we open above 1504 it is bullish. Below 1495.50 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.

I have mentioned at various times that there are certain times for which intraday trading is better and others when swing trading is better. This time is somewhat of a toss-up, particularly when the market is trending and the range is contracted. But right now we have both of these things. Either way, it is often good to know where you stand in the spectrum of these two approaches.

I will update these levels over the weekend.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

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The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 1st has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Members)

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next week.

This last week, the G-line missed the pivot as the market pushed higher. We did close the week up as expected and as was consistent with the forecast. As mentioned, in the update, we did not fully expect the market to follow the G-line, and instead expected the market to push higher; and this is indeed what happened.

The reason I do this commentary for you each week is because the G-Line forecaster is based purely on cycle analysis. The market cycles in different ways at different times. As a market begins to trend, the cycles expand. This can often be seen in advance of the trend as I have written about in many articles on the www.MarketTradersJournal.com blog. What the forecaster cannot do however is see outside of its range so, as we get to new highs etc. on large expanding cycles, the forecaster can decrease its accuracy. This is why it is very important to read these updates so I can help you to interpret the lines. The updates since the beginning of the year vs. the G-line forecasts are an excellent example of this.

We are pushing into new high territory that goes back quite a few years. In these cases, it is best to not look at back adjusted futures charts, but to cash charts so we can see where we are with respect to old highs. The SPX monthly chart which is showing us a key high are around the 1550 area. This level is associated with highs going back to both 2000 and 2007.

Since the beginning of this year a full 85% of S&P companies reported earnings that met or beat expectations. This has driven the market higher into what may be considered an extreme “overbought” area. This is occurring on low volatility. For example, following the FOMC announcement last week the ES futures barely had any range expansion. This is indicative of a complacent bull market. In addition to this is the fact that the US markets are considered to be a safe haven for investors of many other countries right now. So, as mentioned over the last several weeks in these updates, continued upside is expected overall (at least for now).

The weekly and monthly cycle charts are showing a topping of cycle, but as mentioned, due to the low (and declining) volatility, more upside may be expected. Tight trading ranges make intraday trading difficult during these times and I have addressed this issue before.

Overall, we are seeing this pushing into new high territory on low volume. This, of course is not healthy. What I would expect as we push into that 1550 area previously mentioned, is some selling. But I will not consider this to be bearish until we get a full cycle down following that. So, for now, low volatility and continued upside may be expected. Since the Gline forecast, which is separate from this analysis I do here is seemingly in line again, I may expect it to also continue to do so if we can get through this week correctly. Beware that the market could do some testing lower while maintaining its larger bull cycling. This would likely be started with some bad reports.

Speaking of reports, This coming week is very sparse on reports, so there is not particular danger here. So the only thing that could really start some downside is some negative world event related news. Of course, the public has become desensitized to such things, so even that might be limited. Either way, be sure to know the reports for the week; the important ones were on Thursday as I recall: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Now, all the above being said, it is important to be aware that central banks around the world are on an unprecedented money printing scheme. There are dangers that lurk and, at some point this sort of robbing Peter to pay Paul activity will have to come into balance. In this way, I urge overall caution particularly if you have longer term positions in the market. Keep some good risk management in place.

If you are inclined to trade intraday, please look at our new sister site that has a daily trading plan each day in addition to other resources: www.MarketTradersJournal.com. These levels and commentary on the daily trading plans are a nice supplement to the EMF forecasts and can help you to keep tabs on the bigger picture that is offered here during the trading week. These methods of forecasting on Market Traders Journal are completely different from EminiForecaster and are looking at a shorter one day time volume analysis frame as opposed to the weekly cycle based forecasting we do here. This is offered at no charge for a limited time. So I urge you to take advantage of it if it fits your style.

I also have a new site in development that may be of benefit to you: www.DayTradingTargets.com We are looking for BETA testers for the site. If you’d like to help out, be sure to sign up there. In the meantime, you can get the daily Target Levels on my twitter feed. Join the feed @MarketTraderRob on Twitter for those key intraday price levels. This is offered at no charge to you, so take advantage of it.

We now consider the market to be bullish above the 1496 level. Cycling below this level is bearish.The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1519 region above and the 1488 area below.

Monday, if we open above 1509.50 it is bullish. Below 1505 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

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Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 8th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Members Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week.

In recent weeks we have warned of the market pushing higher against any sort of Gline forecast and the market this last week has again done just that pushing very close (so far) to our upper target of 1510. We do not expect this to change unless there is a catalyst to push the market lower like bad news. This coming week we are seeing an up cycle in the Gline and this is consistent with this theme.The low volatility response tot he FOMC was also somewhat bullish even thought he comments were negative.

Caution is urged however. If we can manage to stay above the critical 1496 level, it will tell us a lot. This level is near today’s close, so the morning open may have a big factor in deciding the action with the reports that are scheduled. Further, tomorrow’s close will be a factor in whether this forecast holds or if it becomes the official forecast over the weekend.

Next week’s report schedule is pretty thin on reports that are likely to move the market. Be sure to check the schedule: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

We now consider the market to be bullish above the 1496 level as mentioned. Cycling below this level is bearish.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1518 region above and the 1476 area below.

I will update these levels over the weekend.

Tomorrow, if we open above 1496.75 it is bullish. Below 1493.50 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.

More on the weekend.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

 

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Note: Please remember our parent company has changed but the people are all the same. You may possibly see changes in your billing on your credit card statement to read Axiom Research and Trading. If you see this, please remember so you know who it is.

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 1st has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next week into the Tuesday / Wednesday area and then rise from there.

The Gline forecasts recently have been inaccurate. This has occurred from time to time in the past. In this particular case it is a combination of things. One is a trend starting right at the new year coming out of holidays with a period of consolidation.  Another is the new highs we are experiencing along with other factors previously mentioned. I expect the forecaster will get back on track soon.  I hope the way I wrote the updates prepared you for the continued upside.

On the weekly cycle chart we are seeing a roll-off from the new high in Nindicator Momentum. This is a touch bearish. However, the Nindicator MACD and Nindicator Stochastics pushed out into new highs. This is of course bullish.  On the Monthly we are seeing this divergence in all three of the cycle tools indicating weakness in the larger time frame cycle. Note also the decline in volume. This is not particularly healthy for the new high rally that pushes into territory back to 2007. The weekly Avg-Med Range is in decline (particularly the Weekly chart) and this is bullish. This continues to be a mixed picture.  As previously mentioned, we give consideration to the trend and will expect the controlling bulls to not go away easily without some sort of catalyst. ie. bad news etc.  We are seeing various earnings, but the mood seems to be in favor of ignoring the bad and noting the good.

The report schedule this coming week is busy and we have the FOMC statement on Wednesday. Be sure to check the reports that will impact trading next week  http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Caution this week is recommended in the fact of the FOMC. Often going into these reports,  we can get consolidation. As mentioned in previous editions, the FOMC likely has an interest in pushing these markets higher. It will probably be more bullish if we sell off a bit into the report.

If you are inclined to trade intraday, please look at our new sister site that has a daily trading plan each day in addition to other resources: www.MarketTradersJournal.com. These levels and commentary on the daily trading plans are a nice supplement to the EMF forecasts and can help you to keep tabs on the bigger picture that is offered here during the trading week.  These methods of forecasting on Market Traders Journal are completely different from EminiForecaster and are looking at a shorter one day time volume analysis frame as opposed to the weekly cycle based forecasting we do here.  This is offered at no charge for a limited time. So I urge you to take advantage of it if it fits your style.

We now consider the market to be bullish above the 1488.75 level. Cycling below this level is bearish.The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1515 region above and the 1471 area below.Monday, if we open above 1498 it is bullish. Below 1494 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 1st has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week into the Tuesday / Wednesday area and then rise from there.

As mentioned, continued upside against the forecast was not unlikely and we did see the market pushing into higher ground. This readjustment of the forecaster as the market goes to new highs sometimes occurs at theses junctures and it takes a cycle to get back on track.  This is why I provide a warning about the new highs.  When we expect a downward cycle in an bigger uptrend the expected downside may be reduced and/or the pivot can come early (or not at all).

At the same time, another issue impacts the forecaster and that is the shortened trading week due to the holiday. I have spoken about this before. Essentially, cycles run 24 hours 7 days a week but the market is only open 5/7ths of the days on a normal week (71% of days) and for 6.5/24 hours each day session (27% of hours on days traded).  Put another way, we forecast using 32.5 hours of the 168 hours in a week (19% of the data) and when we have a holiday, it goes to about 15% of the data. Just sharing a bit with you on some of the pitfalls of cycle forecasting on shortened weeks. Anyway, to sum that up, it can take a cycle for the forecaster to get back on track following in the cases where it gets off track.

The issue where the market is pushing at new highs and we are missing data, I gave you the following (currently) free resource that is more immediate than the forecaster to help with trading intraweek:   If you are inclined to trade intraday, please look at our new sister site that has a daily trading plan each day in addition to other resources: www.MarketTradersJournal.com. These levels and commentary on the daily trading plans are a nice supplement to the EMF forecasts and can help you to keep tabs on the bigger picture that is offered here during the trading week.  These methods of forecasting on Market Traders Journal are completely different from EminiForecaster and are looking at a shorter one day time volume analysis frame as opposed to the weekly cycle based forecasting we do here.

The report schedule this coming week is busy and we have the FOMC statement on Wednesday. Be sure to check the reports that will impact trading next week  http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

We now consider the market to be bullish above the 1486.75 level. Cycling below this level is bearish.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1510 region above and the 1470 area below.

I will update these levels over the weekend.

Tomorrow, if we open above 1495.25 it is bullish. Below 1489.50 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending January 25th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Click “Next Week”)

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next week into the Wednesday / Thursday area and then rise from there. Use caution as we are out into new high territory on fairly normal volume. The volatility in recent days has increased slightly and this is a bit bearish. Keep in mind that where we expect a downward cycle in an bigger uptrend the expected downside may be reduced and/or the pivot can come early.

On the weekly cycle chart we are actually seeing a new high in Nindicator Momentum. This is bullish. At the same time we are divergent on the Nindicator MACD and Nindicator Stochastics. This is of course, a bit bearish.  Note on the Monthly we are seeing this divergence in all three of the cycle tools. The weekly Avg-Med Range is in decline and this is bullish. This is a mixed picture.  We give consideration to the trend and will expect the controlling bulls to not go away easily without some sort of catalyst. ie. bad news etc. We are seeing various earnings, but the mood seems to be in favor of ignoring the bad and noting the good. We have a holiday Monday, so this also impacts things a bit.

This last week, the markets have pushed into higher territory  earlier than expected on the G-line forecast. Markets trading at new highs can be quite different in their cycling than markets in range. As mentioned last week, the larger bias was up and as a result the downward retracement for last week’s cycle was less than expected. The FOMC on Monday was inclined to help push things higher. We did see some downside, as expected, but it came early on the cycle and was more of a consolidation than a down cycle as occurs when the bias and/or larger cycle is strong upward.

The report schedule this coming week is thin. With the most important day being Thursday with unemployment claims. Be sure to check the reports that will impact trading next week
http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Monday is a holiday and the markets are closed so trading is shortened next week.

We now consider the market to be bullish above the 1470 level.

If you are inclined to trade intraday, please look at our new sister site that has a daily trading plan each day in addition to other resources: www.MarketTradersJournal.com. These levels and commentary on the daily trading plans are a nice supplement to the EMF forecasts and can help you to keep tabs on the bigger picture that is offered here during the trading week.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1492.50 region above and the 1459 area below. This is a highly contracted range of about 22 points total. This suggests ranging. I will update these levels over the weekend.

Tomorrow, if we open above 1476.75 it is bullish. Below 1471.50 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.

Have a great holiday day off!

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team