EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for December, 2012

EMF Official Forecast

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending January 4th 2013 has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php 

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to ascend next week into Thursday. Keep in mind the markets are on a holiday schedule this week with the market closed all day on Tuesday and reopening Wednesday AM. Here is a schedule for more details:
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/files/2013-new-years.pdf

As mentioned, holiday markets can be tough to forecast as we are on limited data when we are trading only 3/5 days in a week. This is difficult for the forecaster to make a good forecast and, this coming week is no exception. We are trading full schedule (for the day session) with the exception of Tuesday where the market is closed for the New Year holiday. Issues with the US government have also (likely) added a late decline Friday in opposition to our forecast. This same news story may still be impacting us in the coming week.

Today the market Next week’s report schedule gets busier as the week goes on with the bulk of reports that are likely to move the market on Thursday and Friday  Be sure to check the reports that will impact trading next week
http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

We are now still playing with a range / high volume areas bounded by 1406 and 1380.  Watch for potential reversals at about these levels. We now consider the market to be bullish above the 1380 level.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1433 region and the 1366 area below.

Monday, if we open above 1409 it is bullish. Below 1399 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.
Wishing you the very best in this holiday season!

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Official Forecast

The Tentative / Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December 28th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to ascend all week. Keep in mind the markets are on a holiday schedule this week with the market closing early on Monday (12:15 CT), closed all day on Tuesday and reopening Wednesday AM. Here is a schedule for more details: http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/files/2012-christmas.pdf

This last week, the market did not follow our forecast, but it appears the Thursday low came in as expected and has so far headed higher from there.  Part of this mis-forecast may be due to the FOMC meeting last week.  Because of the shortened week next week, this forecast will constitute the official forecast and there will be no Sunday Forecast unless tomorrow brings unexpected changes in the cycling.  We are in a pre-holiday market and I noted in trading today the volume appeared to be lowering slightly. This trend should continue as many traders start for an early departure for a week off.

Next week’s report schedule is fairly light with the bulk of potential market moving reports on Thursday and Friday. Be sure to check the reports that will impact trading next week http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

We are now still playing with a range / high volume areas bounded by 1436 and 1454.  Watch for potential reversals at about these levels. We now consider the market to be bullish above the 1436 level.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1459 region and the 1409 area below.

Tomorrow, if we open above 1436 it is bullish. Below 1430 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.
Wishing you the very best in this holiday season!

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December 21st has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php 

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline into Thursday.

We have rolled to the new front Month which is March. This last week, the market headed higher as expected and missed our minimum target by a few points. Then the FOMC meeting sent the market south. Often when targets are not met it is stronger for the other side. Also, it is not uncommon for a market to change direction following a key report. It is a “Buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario.

Next week’s report schedule is fairly light with the bulk of potential market moving reports on Thursday and Friday. Be sure to check the reports that will impact trading next week http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

We are now still playing with a range / high volume areas bounded by 1407 and 1431.  Watch for potential reversals at about these levels. For now, we now consider the market to be bullish above the 1406 level and bearish below it.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1436 region and the 1388 area below.

Monday, if we open above 1411.25 it is bullish. Below 1408.50 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.

Wishing you the very best, and a wonderful holiday season.

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December 21st has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline into Thursday.

We have rolled to the new front Month which is March. As a result, the current numbers on the forecast have been pushed lower than the December contract for last week’s trading was.   This last week, the market headed higher as expected and missed our minimum target by a few points. Then the FOMC meeting sent the market south. Often when targets are not met it is stronger for the other side. Also, it is not uncommon for a market to change direction following a key report. It is a “Buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario.

Next week’s report schedule is fairly light with the bulk of potential market moving reports on Thursday and Friday. Be sure to check the reports that will impact trading next week http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

We are now still playing with a range / high volume areas bounded by 1407 and 1431.  Watch for potential reversals at about these levels. For now, we now consider the market to be bullish above the 1431 level and bearish below it.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1442 region and the 1395 area below.

Tomorrow, if we open above 1419 it is bullish. Below 1410 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.

We will update the numbers again this weekend-

Wishing you the very best, and a wonderful holiday season.

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December 14th has been posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

This last week, the market attempted to go lower, but has found a balance point where the volatility is collapsing. This is not uncommon around the holidays. The market is even on the week with declining ranges. This is bullish. 

Next week’s report schedule is fairly full. With an FOMC meeting. Be sure to check the reports
that will impact trading next week (http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

We are still playing with a range / high volume areas bounded by 1407 and 1428.  Watch for potential reversals at about these levels. We are also still bullish above the 1406 level.

The minimum expected targets for the week as of this writing are the 1435 region and the 1387 area below.

Tomorrow, if we open above 1412 it is bullish. Below 1407.50 bearish. In between those levels, ranging is expected.

We will update the numbers again this weekend-

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team