EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for August, 2012

EMF Tentative / Official Forecast

The tentative / official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September 7th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to test lower into the mid week and then head higher.

We see the 1387 region as the minimum downside target with 1420 as the upside.

Weekly ranges have contracted even more in the past week and volume is dried up. We are seeing increasing volatility contrasted with longer term low volatility and a jump in precious metal pricing today. This often forebodes a downward biased market.

Next week we have a fairly busy week on reports with most of the action occurring each day except Monday which is a holiday. Be sure to check the calendar on that (http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

For Tuesday,  an open above 1409 is bullish, below 1402, bearish and in between neutral (indicating
that ranging price discovery is more likely).

We wish you an excellent weekend and holiday!

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September 7th will be posted on Friday.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

Due to the holiday and report schedule, we will post the official forecast for next week tomorrow.

The market has not followed the forecast starting today as traders adjust themselves to the reality of the Fed statements due out tomorrow. As a result, the market has been in a holding pattern this week before today. The bias of the market tomorrow will likely influence the forecast, so it is in our best interest to wait for the likely cycle shifts tomorrow.

The market has been in a breakout mode for a number of days as characterized by the narrow range. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Today we opened with the break lower and sold off further in the afternoon following the morning break. This patterning can make forecasting difficult as a small amount of data is having a large impact on a large amount of data. Combining this with the holiday Monday and the FED report tomorrow, makes it even more difficult.

Typically, with a Monday holiday we put out the official forecast on Thursday, but due to the above mentioned facts, I will re-run the forecaster tomorrow afternoon to see what comes up then.

Next week we have a fairly busy week on reports with most of the action occurring each day except Monday which is a holiday. Be sure to check the calendar on that (http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

On the support and resistance front I am still seeing a good potential for support around the 1397 area (which is where we are now). There is another key area at about 1387.50 if we manage to test lower.

For tomorrow,  an open (and / or first 45 minute’s closing price) above 1400.50 is bullish, below 1397, bearish and in between neutral ( indicating that ranging price discovery is more likely).

More tomorrow,

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 31st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (Click “Next Week”)

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next week all week.

Next week we have a medium busy week on reports next week with most of the action on Wednesday – Friday.   Be sure to check the calendar on that (http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

On the support and resistance front we are now seeing a good potential for support around the 1397 area. There is another key area at about 1387.50 to the downside if the 1397 level does not hold for some reason.  To the upside, I am seeing key areas at 1422.50 and 1430 areas. 1430 would be in new high territory, so keeping it tight on your exposure above the 1424.75 area is advised.

For Monday, an open above 1411.75 is bullish, below 1403.00, bearish and in between neutral (indicating that ranging price discovery is more likely).

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 31st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

The market has followed the forecast as expected this week.

Next week we have a medium busy week on reports next week with most of the action on Wednesday – Friday.   Be sure to check the calendar on that (http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

On the support and resistance front I am now seeing a good potential for support around the 1397 area. At the minimum, I suggest protecting the profits you already have in the current trade by trailing tightly. There is another key area at about 1387.50.

For tomorrow,  an open above 1406.75 is bullish, below 1401.25, bearish and in between neutral ( indicating that ranging price discovery is more likely).

More on Sunday,

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August
24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We did see the market test the highs of 1418 on Friday and as per forecast
we are looking for test higher yet and possibly shake out some of the early
shorts out then stay flat for a few days and take a pullback by Friday.

This week we have so many news releases it's hard to keep track, please
refer to this page often!
(http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Vix has been hitting lows and can signal a reversal here, resistance here
is pretty strong but can fake out early shorts.

We are looking for highs to come in at 1425 this week and lows in the 1395
area.

Wishing you the very best,

We also want to welcome all the new members!

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August
24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (Click
“Next Week”)

Next week we are looking for the market to test highs of previos swing of
1418s followed by a pullback from the highs into Friday.

The market is moving higher this week against our forecast.

Next week we have so many news releases it's hard to keep track, please
refer to this page often!
(http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

Vix has been hitting lows and can signal a reversal here, resistance here
is pretty strong but can fake out early shorts.

For tomorrow,  we are looking at the high to come in at 1420, however,
1409 remains a magnet area.

We will post levels for next week on Sunday,

Wishing you the very best,

We also want to welcome all the new members!

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 17th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to test lower into Thursday and head back up from there.

Recent market volatility has collapsed to 11 points per day on average, yet with a weekly range of only 16.5 points. This makes trading difficult as the weekly range is barely (about 66% of) more than the daily range. This is a tight consolidation period that should break as we go into a full week of reports. Be sure to be aware of the report schedule and the expectations. The calendar is on the forecaster at: http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html.

Typically periods of consolidation are followed by large moves. The recent quiet market action has also been accompanied by very low volume. There should be little resistance to move through the recent congestion area, however, we are likely bullish above 1399 and bearish below it.

On the support and resistance front, we are seeing 1407.75 area to the upside and 1387.75 to the downside. Below this, 1358 is key.

For Monday,  an open above 1398.75  is bullish, below 1393.75, bearish and in between neutral ( indicating that more ranging price discovery is likely).

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August
6th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We are looking for the market to decline into Wednesday and recover by
Friday.

Bernanke FED is talking this Tuesday so it could move the market.  Be sure
to check the calendar on that
(http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

We have been averaging about 15.5 points per day on the ES over the last
10 days, so there is plenty of opportunities to capture moves, make sure
you adjust your stops and position size accordingly.

We saw a big move on Friday following strong jobs number. So for this week
we are looking for the highs to come in at 1397 and the lows at 1365.

Wishing you the very best,

We also want to welcome all the new members!

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August
6th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (Click
“Next Week”)

We are looking for the market to decline into Wednesday and recover by
Friday.

The market did not move high enough in the beging of the week as was
expected but is no on the forecast line.

Bernanke FED is talking next Tuesday so it could move the market.  Be sure
to check the calendar on that
(http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

We have been averaging about 15.5 points per day on the ES over the last
10 days, so there is plenty of opportunities to capture moves, make sure
you adjust your stops and position size accordingly.

For tomorrow,  we are looking at the high to come in at 1377 and should we
break today's low we could see as low as 1341.

We will post levels for next week on Sunday,

Wishing you the very best,

We also want to welcome all the new members!

EMF Team