EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for July, 2012

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 3rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to rise the first couple days and then begin to decline.

The market has followed the forecast as expected this week. This has been helped by news that was well reacted to.

On the support and resistance front, we are seeing it is likely we will test higher to either the 1395.50 or 1407.75 area and then test lower. Maybe by week’s end we will be seeing  1354.50 or so.   If we see a lot of upside exuberance right out of the gate Monday, we might expect to drift higher for the week. Otherwise, expect some testing / auctioning lower following an initial test higher to the resistance areas mentioned.

Next week we have a fairly good line up for reports Tuesday through Friday.  Be sure to check the calendar on that  (http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

On the longer term support and resistance front I am now seeing a central tendency around the 1345-1350 area.  We are bullish above this area.

For Monday,  an open above 1385  is bullish, below 1368, bearish and in between neutral ( indicating that ranging price discovery is more likely).

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 3rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise the first couple days and then begin to decline.

The market has followed the forecast as expected this week. This has been helped by some news overnight. Be aware however that this is occurring in the face of not particularly good news. As a result, we will see what tomorrow brings to see if it alters the cycle forecast. In fact, the small / mid caps did not confirm today’s rally in the ES as much, closing lower in the range compared to the ES.

Next week we have a fairly good line up for reports Tuesday through Friday.  Be sure to check the calendar on that (http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

On the longer term support and resistance front I am now seeing a central tendency around the 1349 area.  We are bullish above this area.

For tomorrow,  an open above 1357.50  is bullish, below 1351.50, bearish and in between neutral ( indicating that ranging price discovery is more likely).

More on Sunday,

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 27th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next week into mid week and then test higher.

The market has continued to contract in its range and is showing signs of a bullish market by drifting higher past our expected resistance area of 1363. However, and as previously mentioned, we are entering a time of year that is often the most bearish on a seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often associated with larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias.

In the absence of a negative response to a report, it is likely the upward bias/drift will continue. As a result, down cycles on the forecaster may be expected to be of a lesser magnitude than otherwise might be the case.

Next week we have the most potential for volatility on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Please check the Calendar on the forecaster for more details on that (http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

On the longer term support and resistance front I am now seeing a central tendency around the 1349 area.  We are bullish above this area.

There is a key support area on the composite at around 1349 or so. and a low volume node around 1340. Depending on reports and how they line up in time, these areas may be significant for support.

For Monday,  an open above 1363 is bullish, below 1357, bearish and in between neutral ( indicating that ranging price discovery is more likely).

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 27th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week into mid week and then test higher.

The market has continued to contract in its range and is showing signs of a bullish market by drifting higher past our expected resistance area of 1363. However, and as previously mentioned, we are entering a time of year that is often the most bearish on a seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often associated with larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias.

In the absence of a negative response to a report, it is likely the upward bias/drift will continue. As a result, down cycles on the forecaster may be expected to be of a lesser magnitude than otherwise might be the case.

Next week we have the most potential for volatility on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Please check the Calendar ont he forecaster for more details on that (http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/calendar.html).

On the longer term support and resistance front I am now seeing a central tendency around the 1349 area.  We are bullish above this area.

For tomorrow,  an open above 1373 is bullish, below 1369, bearish and in between neutral ( indicating that ranging price discovery is more likely).

More on Sunday,

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 20th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to test higher a bit before heading lower.

We are expecting to test into the 1363.75 area going higher and then to the downside the 1312 area is key. There is also a potential support region at 1328.75.

As previously mentioned, we are entering a time of year that is often the most bearish on a seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often associated with larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias. We have already been expanding on a range basis with current weekly ranges near 42 points or so.

Next week we have some reports worth noting. Monday: Retail sales,
Tuesday: CPI and Capacity Utilization, Bernanke testifies, Wednesday:
Housing Starts, Bernanke testifies, Thursday: Unemployment and existing home sales. Friday; nothing.  This line-up should supply us with some good action.

As previously mentioned, there is continued weakness overseas and many are trying to liquidate their Euros. This will likely be bullish for the US markets as money seeks “safety.”  Beware of this buying keeping our market from heading too much lower unless circumstances change for more European stability going forward.

On the longer term support and resistance front I am still seeing a central tendency around the 1315 area. This is a fairly long way off at this point, but it is worth knowing this region will have some stopping power if we manage to get there.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July
13th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to move down into mid week and then recover by
Friday.

Last week the forecast was right on except Friday job numbers were pretty
bad and that tanked the market lower.

We expect the range to pick up this week as traders are back from the
holidays.

We are looking for the lows around 1325 and highs around 1360.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team.

Sunday Forecast

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 6th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to move higher next week, most of the week.

This is a holiday week, the markets will be closed on Wednesday.

We expect the market to be a bit quiet. Current range has been about 18
points and this should resume the week after next.

We are looking for a high near 1373 sometime next week and whether we will
break through that level or not remains to be seen.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing
to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may
dictate.

Pretty quiet week for news, except Thursday and Friday unemployment
numbers.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team.