EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for June, 2012

Thursday Forecast

The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 6th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to move higher next week, most of the week.

This week we stayed in the range as was anticipated and are now moving
higher in the globex session (currently up 17 ponts) on the decision by the
supreme court to uphold the new healthcare law.

Next week is July 4th holidays so we expect the market to be a bit quiet.
Current range has been about 18 points and this should resume the week
after next.

We are looking for a test of 1357 sometime next week and whether we will
break through that level or not remains to be seen.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing
to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may
dictate.

For tomorrow, we are looking for a high at about 1345. This is an
emotional few days for the market as smart money starts to move things
around to adjust to the news.

More on Sunday-

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 29th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There is a change to the forecast. We expect the market to range next week but it looks like the cycle has shifted to the finishing some downside business first.

Last week we did test the 1357 area as anticipated and headed lower from there. This cycle is not likely complete as just mentioned.

As previously mentioned, we are entering a time of year that is often the most bearish on a seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often associated with larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias. We have already been expanding on a range basis with current weekly ranges near 51 points or so.

The longer term monthly cycle is turning south and we will expect some continuation of this larger cycle going downward. However, under the current circumstances, it will take substantial effort to get too bearish, so barring any significantly bearish new information, expect this down cycle to be of a lesser magnitude for various reasons mentioned herein.

There is continued weakness overseas and many are trying to liquidate their Euros. This will likely be bullish for the US markets as money seeks “safety.”  Beware of this buying keeping our market from heading too much lower unless circumstances change for more European stability going forward.

As previously mentioned, it is recommended to keep an eye on reports. This week has been fairly busy on the report front. Next week will also be fairly busy. This suggests some potential for volatility.   Monday we have new home sales. Tuesday Consumer Confidence and Manufacturing. Wednesday, durable good and pending home sales. Thursday, unemployment claims. Friday, Personal spending and income, Chicago PMI and U of M consumer sentiment.  This will be a lot for traders to chew on. Any of these not meeting expectations could send us further downward. Or, simply meeting expectation, upward.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may dictate.

On the support and resistance front I am still seeing a central tendency around the 1315 area. And we have nearly returned to this level today. Above this we are somewhat bullish, below it bearish.

On the support and resistance front for next week, we are seeing testing lower into the 1303-1305 area and to the upside into the 1335-1336 area.  If we manage to get some bad reports, the longer term support is at the 1298 area. This should provide some level of stopping power. If we get benign reports, the 1357 area where we still have a remaining untouched resistance area.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June
29th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to range next week. However, we are at a juncture
where tomorrow's price action may influence the forecast, so I will reserve
further inspection until Sunday's report.

We did test the 1357 area as anticipated and headed lower from there. This
cycle is not likely complete as just mentioned.

As previously mentioned, we are entering a time of year that is often the
most bearish on a seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often
associated with larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias. We have
already been expanding on a range basis with current weekly ranges near 51
points or so.

The longer term monthly cycle is turning south and we will expect some
continuation of this larger cycle going downward. However, under the
current circumstances, it will take substantial effort to get too bearish,
so barring any significantly bearish new information, expect this down
cycle to be of a lesser magnitude for various reasons mentioned herein.

There is continued weakness overseas and many are trying to liquidate
their Euros. This will likely be bullish for the US markets as money seeks
"safety."  Beware of this buying keeping our market from heading too much
lower unless circumstances change for more European stability going
forward.

As previously mentioned, it is recommended to keep an eye on reports. This
week has been fairly busy on the report front. Next week will also be
fairly busy. This suggests some potential for volatility.   Monday we have
new home sales. Tuesday Consumer Confidence and Manufacturing. Wednesday,
durable good and pending home sales. Thursday, unemployment claims. Friday,
Personal spending and income, Chicago PMI and U of M consumer sentiment. 
This will be a lot for traders to chew on. Any of these not meeting
expectations could send us further downward. Or, simply meeting
expectation, upward.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing
to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may
dictate.

On the support and resistance front I am still seeing a central tendency
around the 1315 area. And we have nearly returned to this level today.
Above this we are somewhat bullish, below it bearish.  

For tomorrow, If we open above 1341, this is bullish, below 1317.50
bearish. Between these levels neutral (ie. ranging market is more likely).

More on Sunday-

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 15th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next
week.

We have for the most part been trading inside the range of Monday all week
as the bulls attempt to maintain control.  On Friday, we did head higher
after a bullish open and broke from this range. This is bullish. But will
require new buying to sustain it.

As previously mentioned, we are entering a time of year that is often the
most bearish on a seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often
associated with larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias. We have
already been expanding on a range basis with current weekly ranges near 55
points or so.

The longer term monthly cycle is turning south while the weekly cycle has
tried to head higher.  So we will expect some continuation of the larger
cycle going downward. However, under the current circumstances, it will
take substantial effort to get too bearish, so barring any significantly
bearish new information, expect this down cycle to be of a lesser magnitude
for various reasons mentioned herein.

There is a lot of weakness overseas and many are trying to liquidate their
Euros. This will likely be bullish for the US markets as money seeks
"safety."  Beware of this buying keeping our market from heading too much
lower unless circumstances change for more European stability going
forward.

As previously mentioned, it is recommended to keep an eye on reports. This
week has been fairly busy on the report front. Next week is fairly thin
again.  Most noteworthy is Thursday with unemployment claims and Existing
home sales.  Possibly the FOMC statement  on Wednesday. There are no
reports on Friday.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing
to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may
dictate.

On the support and resistance front I am still seeing a central tendency
around the 1315 area. Above this we are somewhat bullish, below it bearish.
 To the upside, if we manage to hold early next week following Friday's
rally. I am seeing an area around 1357 or so; 1387 above that.  There
should be limited resistance to upside movement as we go higher.  To the
downside, to truly be bearish, we will probably need to get first through
1308, 1315 and then below 1300.  Below 1300 there should be limited
resistance to more downside movement.

Because of the ranging of the market this last week, a lot has changed in
the support and resistance analysis from last week.  This ranging condition
has also been somewhat volatile. This in-range volatility is typically
bearish.   As a result, we have some conflicting signals. If we do not see
buying early in the week, it is fairly likely that the bears will try to
take control of the higher pricing.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June
15th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to decline next week.

We have for the most part been trading inside the range of Monday all week
as the bulls attempt to maintain control. 

As previously mentioned, we are entering a time of year that is often the
most bearish on a seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often
associated with larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias. We have
already been expanding on a range basis with current weekly ranges near 55
points or so.

The longer term monthly cycle is turning south while the weekly cycle has
tried to head higher.  So we will expect some continuation of the larger
cycle going downward.

There is a lot of weakness overseas and many are trying to liquidate their
Euros. This will likely be bullish for the US markets as money seeks
"safety."  Beware of this buying keeping our market from heading too much
lower unless circumstances change for more European stability going
forward.

As previously mentioned, it is recommended to keep an eye on reports. This
week has been fairly busy on the report front. Next week is fairly thin
again.  Most noteworthy is Thursday with unemployment claims and Existing
home sales.  Possibly the FOMC statement  on Wednesday. There are no
reports on Friday.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing
to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may
dictate.

On the support and resistance front I am still seeing a central tendency
around the 1315 area. Above this we are somewhat bullish, below it bearish.
Below the 1298 to 1300 level, there is limited resistance to southerly
movement. Above 1322, limited resistance to upside movement. In between
this zone, we are ranging. Beware of breakouts from this area.  There is a
gap at 1280 if we get into that region, beware of turns there. If we break
to the upside out of the previously described range, the 1338-1340 area is
likely.

Because of the ranging of the market this week, not much has changed in
the support and resistance analysis from last week.  This ranging condition
has also been somewhat volatile. This in-range volatility is typically
bearish.

There was a lot of net selling today even while the market headed higher. 
This suggests some bears lurk, possibly waiting to take some control
tomorrow.  Tomorrow if we open between 1314 and 1322, it is neutral and
expect ranging. If we open higher, bullish. If we open lower bearish.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 15th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week.

We have for the most part been trading inside the range of Monday all week as the bulls attempt to maintain control.

As previously mentioned, we are entering a time of year that is often the most bearish on a seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often associated with larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias. We have already been
expanding on a range basis with current weekly ranges near 55 points or so.

The longer term monthly cycle is turning south while the weekly cycle has tried to head higher.  So we will expect some continuation of the larger cycle going downward.

There is a lot of weakness overseas and many are trying to liquidate their Euros. This will likely be bullish for the US markets as money seeks “safety.”  Beware of this buying keeping our market from heading too much lower unless circumstances change for more European stability going forward.

As previously mentioned, it is recommended to keep an eye on reports. This week has been fairly busy on the report front. Next week is fairly thin again.  Most noteworthy is Thursday with unemployment claims and Existing home sales.  Possibly the FOMC statement  on Wednesday. There are no reports on Friday.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may dictate.

On the support and resistance front I am still seeing a central tendency around the 1315 area. Above this we are somewhat bullish, below it bearish. Below the 1298 to 1300 level, there is limited resistance to southerly movement. Above 1322, limited resistance to upside movement. In between this zone, we are ranging. Beware of breakouts from this area.  There is a gap at 1280 if we get into that region, beware of turns there. If we break to the upside out of the previously described range, the 1338-1340 area is likely.

Because of the ranging of the market this week, not much has changed in the support and resistance analysis from last week.  This ranging condition has also been somewhat volatile. This in-range volatility is typically bearish.

There was a lot of net selling today even while the market headed higher.  This suggests some bears lurk, possibly waiting to take some control tomorrow.  Tomorrow if we open between 1314 and 1322, it is neutral and expect ranging. If we open higher, bullish. If we open lower bearish.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 15th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to go higher to
ranging for the first couple days and then test lower again.

The market continued higher on Friday but failed to break the critical
cycle changing high as mentioned.

We have rolled to the new September contract on the forecaster, so please
make a note of that.

We are entering a time of year that is often the most bearish on a
seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often associated with
larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias. We have already been
expanding on a range basis with current weekly ranges near 52 points or
so.

The longer term monthly cycle is turning south while the weekly cycle is
positioned to potentially bottom or turn up.

It is recommended to keep an eye on reports. This week has been fairly
thin on the report front. Next week should likely bring some action with
Retail Sales on Tuesday as well as PPI. CPI on Wednesday and unemployment
claims. Friday has Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production as well
as the widely followed U of M Consumer Sentiment numbers. Beware of the
impact of these reports.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing
to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may
dictate.

On the support and resistance front I am seeing a central tendency around
the 1315 area. Above this we are somewhat bullish, below it bearish. Below
the 1298 to 1300 level, there is limited resistance to southerly movement. 
Above 1328, limited resistance to upside movement. In between this zone, we
are ranging. Beware of breakouts from this area.  There is a gap at 1280 if
we get into that region, beware of turns there. If we break to the upside
out of the previously described range, the 1338-1340 area is likely.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 15th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to go higher to
ranging for the first couple days and then test lower again.

The market continued higher on Friday but failed to break the critical
cycle changing high as mentioned. 

We have rolled to the new September contract on the forecaster, so please
make a note of that.

We are entering a time of year that is often the most bearish on a
seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often associated with
larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias. We have already been
expanding on a range basis with current weekly ranges near 52 points or
so.

The longer term monthly cycle is turning south while the weekly cycle is
positioned to potentially bottom or turn up. 

It is recommended to keep an eye on reports. This week has been fairly
thin on the report front. Next week should likely bring some action with
Retail Sales on Tuesday as well as PPI. CPI on Wednesday and unemployment
claims. Friday has Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production as well
as the widely followed U of M Consumer Sentiment numbers. Beware of the
impact of these reports.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing
to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may
dictate.

On the support and resistance front I am seeing a central tendency around
the 1315 area. Above this we are somewhat bullish, below it bearish. Below
the 1298 to 1300 level, there is limited resistance to southerly movement.
Above 1328, limited resistance to upside movement. In between this zone, we
are ranging. Beware of breakouts from this area.  There is a gap at 1280 if
we get into that region, beware of turns there. If we break to the upside
out of the previously described range, the 1338-1340 area is likely.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The Tentative / Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week
ending June 15th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to go higher to ranging for the first couple days and
then test lower again.

The market has rebounded as expected and per the forecast. The combined
contract volume was fairly high today as the rally from  yesterday failed
to follow through. We have rolled to the new September contract on the
forecaster, so please make a note of that.

We are entering a time of year that is often the most bearish on a
seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often associated with
larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias. We have already been
expanding on a range basis with current weekly ranges near 52 points or
so.

The longer term monthly cycle is turning south while the weekly cycle is
positioned to potentially bottom or turn up. Tomorrows action will tell us
a lot, so there is a potential the forecast could change over the weekend.
The 1327.75 area will be key in this determination as the break of that
level will redefine the cycle. Otherwise, based on today's close, we are
still in a bear mode. Therefore some downside next week is expected.

It is recommended to keep an eye on reports. This week has been fairly
thin on the report front. Next week should likely bring some action with
Retail Sales on Tuesday as well as PPI. CPI on Wednesday and unemployment
claims. Friday has Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production as well
as the widely followed U of M Consumer Sentiment numbers. Beware of the
impact of these reports.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing
to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may
dictate.

On the support and resistance front I am seeing a central tendency around
the 1315 area. Above this we are somewhat bullish, below it bearish. Below
the 1300 level, there is limited resistance to southerly movement.  Above
1328, limited resistance to upside movement. In between this zone, we are
ranging. Beware of breakouts from this area.

For tomorrow, an open below 1309.50 is bearish. An open above 1318.25 is
bullish. Following this, look to trade in the direction of the initial open
on retracements into the 1314.25 area. If we open inside the above range,
look for the market to be more likely to range as there are no significant
reports tomorrow.

More on Sunday...

Have a great weekend.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The Tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 15th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to go higher to ranging for the first couple days and then test lower again.

The market has rebounded as expected and per the forecast. The combined contract volume was fairly high today as the rally from  yesterday failed to follow through. We have rolled to the new September contract on the forecaster, so please make a note of that.

We are entering a time of year that is often the most bearish on a seasonal basis (starting mid June). This period is often associated with larger ranges and somewhat of a downside bias. We have already been expanding on a range basis with current weekly ranges near 52 points or so.

The longer term monthly cycle is turning south while the weekly cycle is positioned to potentially bottom or turn up. Tomorrows action will tell us a lot, so there is a potential the forecast could change over the weekend. The 1327.75 area will be key in this determination as the break of that level will redefine the cycle. Otherwise, based on today’s close, we are still in a bear mode. Therefore some downside next week is expected.

It is recommended to keep an eye on reports. This week has been fairly thin on the report front. Next week should likely bring some action with Retail Sales on Tuesday as well as PPI. CPI on Wednesday and unemployment claims. Friday has Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production as well as the widely followed U of M Consumer Sentiment numbers. Beware of the impact of these reports.

As ranges increase, so does effective leverage. It may not be a bad thing to decrease exposure going into the coming months as range expansion may dictate.

On the support and resistance front I am seeing a central tendency around the 1315 area. Above this we are somewhat bullish, below it bearish. Below the 1300 level, there is limited resistance to southerly movement.  Above 1328, limited resistance to upside movement. In between this zone, we are ranging. Beware of breakouts from this area.

For tomorrow, an open below 1309.50 is bearish. An open above 1318.25 is bullish. Following this, look to trade in the direction of the initial open on retracements into the 1314.25 area. If we open inside the above range, look for the market to be more likely to range as there are no significant reports tomorrow.

More on Sunday…

Have a great weekend.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team