EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for May, 2012

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 8th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
“Next Week”)

We expect the market to pull back possibly testing the recent lows and try
to rebound from there on. From the looks of it could be a flat week with
lots of range

Current forecast for this week is spot on! Will see what happens
tomorrow.

For this week we predicted that the highs are going to come in at 1337 and
the lows at 1290, we did see the 30's as highs, will see if we can get to
90s tomorrow.

Tomorrow we are looking at unemployment numbers and also manufacturing
numbers so could set up for a volatile day. We have been averaging 21
points intraday lately so the ranges are definitely here so the market is
giving some opportunities with added risk. Please manage your size and
stops accordingly.

Next week we are looking at some housing numbers and GDP on Thursday!

Next week, depending on what we do tomorrow, we are looking at the lows to
come in at 1290 and if we overshoot that it could stop at 1275 and the
highs to come in at 1326 level. 

More on Sunday night.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative / Official Forecast

The Tentative / Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week
ending June 1st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

The market struggled to go higher this last week as may have been expected
based on the strength of trend from the previous week. Overall however, we
have followed the forecast pretty well.  It looks like the cycle on the
forecaster is suggesting some more downside next week. We are seeing a
decline early in the week with a mid week retracement and then continued
downside. I have written before about holidays and how they influence
forecasting, so I will not reiterate. This is a holiday weekend with no
full day session trading Monday. So, ignore the data on the forecaster for
Monday.

We remain in a bear mode on larger cycles. So you may elect to pout more
weight on moves in that direction. 

On the support and resistance front I am seeing that below the 1290 area
there may be limited resistance to further downside movement. There is a
potential support are at or about the 1269 area, but it is narrow, so, if
we go through it on volume and or a closing basis, we could expect to see
1248. To the upside, if we manage to break higher, we are seeing 1337 as
the upper bound. We have already see rejection of price at the 1326 area,
so beware that is a potential resistance area.

Keep an eye on the reports on the calendar in the members area. We have
pending home sales on Tuesday, Non farm employment on Thursday along with
other numbers on Thursday that could be market movers. The same stands for
Friday. So use caution at or about these times. Unscheduled news such as
the Europe situation are also worth keeping tabs on. A few years ago, we'd
never look at news; things have changed.

For tomorrow an open above 1322 will be somewhat bullish. An open below
1313.50 will be somewhat bearish.

Have a wonderful extended weekend. Due to the holiday, this report
constitutes both the tentative and official forecast for next week.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 25th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to head higher for most of the week as a rebound to
recent sell off.

Last week we predicted that the market would go down to 1310 and the
market overshot that level a bit. Tomorrow we could see an attempt at
lows
test and maybe a rebound fueled by FaceBook IPO.

Last week week the g-line forecast is spot on.

The market has been selling off for the fifth session in a row and has
dropped more than 100 points since the highs of the beginning of May.

On Friday we did go down into projected 1291 level.

This week we are looking at the lows to
come in at 1285 and the highs to come in at 1335 level.

The range has expanded to 17 points on average so the market is giving
some time opportunities with added risk. Please manage your size and
stops
accordingly.

Next week we have some home sales reports together with jobs reports.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 25th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
“Next Week”)

We expect the market to head higher for most of the week as a rebound to
recent sell off.

This week we predicted that the market would go down to 1310 and the
market overshot that level a bit. Tomorrow we could see an attempt at lows
test and maybe a rebound fueled by FaceBook IPO.

So far this week the g-line forecast is spot on.

The market has been selling off for the fifth session in a row and has
dropped more than 100 points since the highs of the beginning of May.

Next week, depending on what we do tomorrow, we are looking at the lows to
come in at 1291 and the highs to come in at 1335 level.

The range has expanded to 17 points on average so the market is giving
some time opportunities with added risk. Please manage your size and stops
accordingly.

There are no economic news tomorrow but next week we have some home sales
reports together with jobs reports.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 18th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to head higher for the first day or so and then head lower from there.
Following Monday’s abrupt sell-off, the we attempted to test the 1364.50 area for the remaining four days of the week, failing in each case. Friday, we closed below value which is bearish.  If we open lower Monday it will set a negative tone.

We have a full week of reports next week so keep an eye on this as previously mentioned.

On the support and resistance front: Above the 1365.50 area, we are moving into a low volume area at or about the 1372 area.  The market may need to get back up into the 1385-1390 area in order to find value. To the downside, on the longer term profile, I am seeing the 1325 area as a likely support area if we do break.  Ranges in recent weeks have been about 39 points. This could conceivably take us as low as the 1310 area if the early days of next week are negative.

Downside volume this last week was above average supporting the case for the bears. Consistent with this, I read a report this week that this is the 11th consecutive week of cash outflows from mutual funds and this puts mutual fund cash levels leaving them with only 3.3% worth of fuel for a potential rally; not particularly bullish either.

I have mentioned in recent weeks to keep an eye on reports. This market is not naturally cycling and is news driven.  There is a news tab on the forecaster at the top to help you with these.

For Monday morning an open above 1362 is bullish, below 1351.75 is bearish. An open inside this range may result is a ranging market Monday.

Wishing you the very best,
EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative/Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 18th is now posted.
http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)
We expect the market to head higher for the first day or so and then head lower from there.
Today, after the close JP Morgan announced as follows:
By Dawn Kopecki (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co. said losses tied to the chief investment office are bigger than the company projected.
“Since March 31, 2012, CIO has had significant mark-to- market losses in its synthetic credit portfolio, and this portfolio has proven to be riskier, more volatile and less effective as an economic hedge than the firm previously believed,” the New York-based company said today in a quarterly securities filing.

I have talked in the past about this sort of thing. It is likely that any such statements they could make would be understated.  So use caution.

The range over the last week has again been about 31 points so far. The 5 week average is 39.4.  We have some potential for more range expansion.  Looking to my weekly and monthly charts, I am seeing a weekly trend and momentum that has turned south. Today’s break and close lower was a bearish breakout. It looks as though we could actually have average volume this week in a market that has been low in volume for most weeks this year. This absence of volume is a lack of participation that should concern many. Mutual fund cash levels are at surprisingly low levels meaning there is not likely fuel for a broad rally.

On the support and resistance front, I am seeing 1315 as an potential area of support. That is, if we break 1332.75.  To the upside, 1365.50 seems to be a key area we have failed to test for a number of days. As always, I will try to get some better, more relevant numbers for Sunday.  Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

For tomorrow then, the 1339 area is key and is a multi day low. 1359 is also an important area to the upside. We have a 3 day value area bound by 1357.25 to the upside, 1346 to the downside and a point of control around 1356. Keep an eye on these areas as the market tries to establish its value.

I have mentioned in recent weeks to keep an eye on reports. This market is not naturally cycling and is news driven.  There is a news tab on the forecaster at the top to help you with these.

That’s all for now
Wishing you the very best,
EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The offical EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 11th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market next week to head lower for the majority of the week.

Elections in France may put pressure on banking and potentially set precedence for the rest of Europe.  So watch for volatility early in the week. Friday’s employment numbers also sent some shockwaves through the street.

There is a low on the weekly chart at 1352.50 and we are through it in the night session. This is bearish.  If this does not hold on a day session basis, then lower is expected.

To the downside, we have potential for support in the 1336.50 area. If this fails, there is a low volume area in the 1325 zone followed by high volume in the 1316 area.  The market tends to find support in high volume areas on the chart.

To the upside, as of this writing is the 1365 to 1371 area.

Be sure to keep an eye on these support and resistance areas and news. These are not normal markets and there is a lot of uncertainty right now in a news driven market. This will likely translate into volatility. Volatility translates into leverage when position sizing. As a result, it may be prudent to reduce position sizing and manage risk more tightly.

Have a great week.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May
11th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market next week to head lower for the majority of the
week.

Next week is pretty quiet for economic news, so we expect a bit lower
volatility.

This week is down slightly with some wild moves.

Tomorrow we are looking for 1392 on the upside and 1380 on the downside.

Also we have Friday unemployment numbers tomorrow so we could start the
day off with a gap up or down

Depending on what we do tomorrow next week we are looking for 1390 as
resistance and 1373 as support or the lows for the week.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team