EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for April, 2012

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 4th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to pullback into midweek and then resume the uptrend from there on.

This last week’s uptrend has been fueled by strong earnings from several companies so our forecast has been a bit off.

We have a pretty quiet week ahead of us in terms of economic reports and we have been averaging about 15 points a day over the last 10 days so the range has been expanding while we have been moving higher, we are also up 40 points in just 4 days so this all shows signs of a pretty strong uptrend. Try not to fight the trend.

We are looking at the highs to come in at 1403-07 and the lows in at 1377.
We are at or near the top of this range now, so use caution.

On Friday’s profile right now, I am seeing 1400.75, 1396.50 as a value area with a point of control at 1398.  If we open higher on Monday, this
will be somewhat bullish.   An open below 1396.50 will be pretty bearish.
If we open in this range; neutral.   Use caution as mentioned however as we
are likely near the top of a range.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May
4th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to pullback into midweek and then resume the uptrend
from there on.

This week's uptrend has been fueled by strong earnings from several
companies so our forecast has been a bit off.

We have a pretty quiet week ahead of us in terms of economic reports and
we have been averaging about 15 points a day over the last 10 days so the
range has been expanding while we have been moving higher, we are also up
40 points in just 4 days so this all shows signs of a pretty strong
uptrend. Try not to fight the trend.

Tomorrow we are looking for a high to come in at 1403. We are down about 5
points in the night session so we could also see a low come in at 1380 or
so. Fridays have been a bit slower lately and after a big up day today we
can see a range bound day tomorrow.

Depending on what we do tomorrow for next week we are looking at the highs
to come in at 1403-07 and the lows in at 1377.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 27th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to head higher next week for the first couple days then head lower again.

We saw some reports in the last few days that are starting to shake some economic reality into market participants. As mentioned previously, reports are an important component of this “Bank-Owned” economy. So stay tuned for better health.

We saw the upper resistance area work nicely this last week.  We have had about 30 points in the weekly range lately.  From the current price, this could take us to the 1342 area.  There are quite a few milestones between here and there though, so keep an eye on the 1355 area.  To the upside, I am seeing 1380 (plus or minus). This area would project down into the 1321 zone in the weeks to come.

I will try to get some better levels hopefully for Sunday.

For tomorrow, if we open below 1370 tomorrow, that would be bearish, so look to sell in the 1370 to 1376 areas.  If we open above 1382, that would be bullish. So buy the 1382 area or 1376 area.

The daily ranges in the last couple weeks have increased and increasing volatility is typically bearish. So, use caution.

That’s all for now
Wishing you the very best,
EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April
20th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to rise higher into Tuesday and then pullback for
the
rest of the week.

This week has fewer economic reports except for a few on Thursday.

We expect the range to contract just a bit, currently we are at 14 or so
points average intraday range over last 10 sessions which is pretty
healthy
for S&P.

This week we are looking for the high to come in at 1385 level and we
could retest the lows of 1352 and lower. 

We would like to welcome aboard all the new members!

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative / Official Forecast

The tentative/Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 13th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to head higher next week.

The market is currently in a range bounded by the 1417 area to the upside and the 1381 area to the downside. We expect this lower area to act as support, and we do not expect to see the market getting to the upper part of this range. As a result, consolidation may likely be the theme for next week. 1397 area stands as the midpoint/control point.

We have a gap / Lapse on our chart beginning at the 1398.50 area. We are also seeing virgin points at the 1407 area.  This would be a likely upper boundary and fading a run up into this area may be worth the risk.

Report wise, we are seeing Thursday and Friday as the most likely volatility days. Be sure to be aware of reports on these days.

Much of the market action has been correlated with reports. For example, this week, the FOMC minutes definitely were the catalyst sending the marker lower from there. For this reason, it is important to keep abreast of reports that are coming out and being defensive in the way it impacts your position.

We have been in a long upward trend that in recent weeks has turned into a congestion area.  A break below the 1385 area on volume and/or a closing basis, would be particularly bearish and we are due for some reasonable retracement/correction.

The daily ranges in the last couple weeks have increased and increasing volatility is typically bearish. So, use caution.

As of this writing, the trend is certainly down but the duration of the cycle is such that it should try to test higher.  Our Gline forecasting is impacted by short weeks and this is a holiday week with the market being closed tomorrow. As a result, this tentative forecast also stands as our official forecast for next week.

As mentioned in last week’s update, a test of 1390 would be healthy and that is where we stand now. As a result, the risk reward profile we see right now for an upside bias next week if fairly attractive.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team