EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for March, 2012

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 6th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to head higher next week and see some volatility later in the week.

We have a variety of reports in the coming week including the FOMC minutes on Tuesday. Expect some volatility from this and a reiteration of positive tone for the markets. This may then be followed by some profit taking and volatility per the forecast.

The last few days (last week) have seen a southerly bias and this was combined  with a slightly bearish unemployment report. GDP came in as expected.

The average range of the S&P is around 16 or so points daily. This makes for fairly good intraday trading and is a bit of a range expansion following some testing lower that we have seen.

On the support and resistance front, we are bounded by 1386.25 and
1415.50.   We have points of control at 1411.75 and 1390.  Weekly ranges
have been in the 35 point range, however with the shortened week we may see less average volume and less range.  As mentioned, Tuesday is a key report day as is Friday, with nonfarm payrolls which should make the early morning session potentially volatile.

Remember, this is a holiday week and the markets are closed on Friday.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April
6th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to head higher next week and see some volatility
later in the week.

We have a variety of reports in the coming week including the FOMC minutes
on Tuesday. Expect some volatility from this and a reiteration of positive
tone for the markets. This may then be followed by some profit taking and
volatility per the forecast.

The last few days have seen a southerly bias and this was combined this
morning with a slightly bearish unemployment report. GDP came in as
expected. We also have some reports tomorrow, so the day will not likely be
a lazy Friday.  Most reports are pre-market so we may see a trend set up
early in the day. 

The average range of the S&P is around 16 or so points daily. This makes
for fairly good intraday trading and is a bit of a range expansion
following some testing lower that we have seen.

If we test below the 1380 low of last Friday, we could see lower as this
is a low volume area that continues well down into the 1365 area.  We are
not expecting to see this, but be aware it is there on your charts.  We did
see a bit of a b formation on our charts today, and if we head lower
tomorrow, it is possible the Gline could change this weekend.  A close
tomorrow below 1390 would be decidedly bearish.  A test of 1390 would be
healthy.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
30th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We are looking for the market to rebound once again from this pullback and
continue higher. We are already up 3 points in the night session. 

Bernanke speaks next Tuesday so it could get a little volatile. There is
also a consumer confidence numbers on Tuesday.

The market has been moving on average 10 points in the day session over
the last 10 days or so and Friday was about 14 points, we could see
continuation of expanding range over the coming week.

This week we are looking for an obvious 1408 high test and on the downside
we should find support at 1377 and 1365 below
that.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
30th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click
“Next Week”)

We are looking for the market to rebound once again from this pullback and
continue higher.

Bernanke speaks next Tuesday so it could get a little volatile.

This week, the market is basically flat, we should move higher tomorrow
into 1398 resistance.

Tomorrow we have home sales at 10 and also Bernanke speaks as well.

Depending on what we do tomorrow we are looking for an obvious 1408 high
test and on the downside we should find support at 1377 and 1365 below
that.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 23rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We again expect the market to make a low in the beginning of the week around the Tuesday / Wednesday juncture and continue higher from there.

Friday was a surprisingly uneventful day for a quad witching day.  Such low volatility is consistent with bull markets.

Key levels for next week are 1429 to the upside and 1370 to the downside.

We continue to see positive economic reports and the FOMC has a clear policy of pushing the market higher.  It is best not to fight them, for now.  I have mentioned before this market is largely driven by news event and government intervention.  THis can play havoc on a market’s normal cycling.  So, we give a bit more credence to scheduled reports.

On the report front, we have a grand whopping 5 FOMC speaking engagements next week (probably not an accident). These guys are long, so we know we’d need to overcome them to head south by any margin.  Housing starts and building permits could possibly be a bit negative, on Tuesday before the open, so watch that one and, existing home sales on Wednesday followed by unemployment claims on Thursday and new home sales on Friday. Housing is a key issue that stands in the way of any true recovery.

For now, it is likely, buying dips may be the best strategy.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 23rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php   (click “Next Week”)

We again expect the market to make a low in the beginning of the week around the Tuesday / Wednesday juncture and continue higher from there.

Key levels for next week are 1429 to the upside and 1370 to the downside.

Tomorrow is quadruple witching day, so expect some volatility as positions get settled.

We continue to see positive economic reports and the FOMC has a clear policy of pushing the market higher.  It is best not to fight them, for now.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
13th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to make a low in the beginning of the week around
Monday and then rise thereafter and possibly a pullback into Friday as
shown in the forecast G-line.

This week Bernanke speaks on Wednesday so we could see some volatility
after than day, please pay attention to your positions then.

Next weeks levels currently are at 1371 for resistance or highs and 1353
or 1347 below that level.

While market has gone off of its highs of 1377 of around 40 points it has
quickly rebounded continuing current uptrend. New highs for the year
would
not be surprising in near future also considering that this is an
election
year.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
13th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
“Next Week”)

We expect the market to make a low in the beginning of the week around
Monday and then rise thereafter and possibly a pullback into Friday as
shown in the forecast G-line.

So far the market is flat this week with a down bias. 

Tomorrow we are looking at8:30 unemployment numbers to come in. And as of
this writing the projected high for tomorrow is 1366.

Depending on what we do tomorrow next weeks levels currently are at
1371 for resistance or highs and 1353 or 1347 below that level.

While market has gone off of its highs of 1377 of around 40 points it has
quickly rebounded continuing current uptrend. New highs for the year would
not be surprising in near future also considering that this is an election
year.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 9th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to attempt new highs early in the week and then re-test going lower.

This last week we hit our anticipated resistance of 1375 and headed south from there. However a barrage of positive reports meetings resulting recovering that range in one day, namely today.  As a result, we saw our turn come a bit early off the low. This week was an interesting report week because we have no reports on Friday (tomorrow).

Looking to our weekly ES chart, I am seeing we have not had one single week with above average volume all year. Typically, you’d like to see some volume associated with a rally.  There are many potential participants on the sidelines who are suspicious of this yet we have extended to a move of more than 100% of the first range comprised of the first 4 weeks (weeks that did have good volume) of the rally starting last October.  This tendency suggests we are a bit overdone on the long side. This may weaken the bull some in the coming weeks.  The monthly chart however projects into the 1429 area and looks a little healthier (excepting the volume situation).

Until yesterday, ranges have been narrow and intraday trading for trend following has been difficult. As a result, intraday counter-trending, or catching moves near support or resistance has been the key to profitable trading.  This is another reason why we provide key support and resistance levels. It is an important key to success in a difficult to trade market, where much of what is driving it is news related and not the natural cycling we would typically see. So the way you successfully trade in this environment  will take these factors into account.  As a result, we try to write about a larger perspective for perspective.

Another factor that is a change in perspective is, as we head higher, the profiles we typically use to measure support and resistance is pulling data all the way back to 2007.  The volume has expanded so much in that time span between then and now, the volume from that period is basically insignificant. It is so belittled by the current trading volume, that it is difficult to make projections off it.

Another analysis of volume we do is to look at trends in tick volume over bigger spans of time. For example. over the last two weeks, there has been net selling as the market has headed higher.  So the market has gone 35+ points higher on net selling.  That is something worth pondering.

In the meantime, the Russell 2000 has done nothing but consolidate over this time and is in a net downtrend as of this writing on a half day chart (which is a significant cycle).

Because of these factors, we urge caution on the long side.

Basic Support and resistance as of this time consists of 1380.50 to the upside and 1353.75 to 1358.50 to the downside. If we see prices beyond 1380, the downtrend we are predicting for the week is probably off. A correction down into the 1322 (or even the 1310) area would be very healthy for this market, but we will need to get through 1355 in order to substantiate a move into that area.

Have a great week-

All the best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 9th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to attempt new highs early in the week and then re-test going lower.

This week we hit our anticipated resistance of 1375 and headed south from there. However a barrage of positive reports meetings resulting recovering that range in one day, namely today.  As a result, we saw our turn come a bit early off the low. This week was an interesting report week because we have no reports on Friday (tomorrow).

Looking to our weekly ES chart, I am seeing we have not had one single week with above average volume all year. Typically, you’d like to see some volume associated with a rally.  There are many potential participants on the sidelines who are suspicious of this yet we have extended to a move of more than 100% of the first range comprised of the first 4 weeks (weeks that did have good volume) of the rally starting last October.  This tendency suggests we are a bit overdone on the long side. This may weaken the bull some in the coming weeks.  The monthly chart however projects into the 1429 area and looks a little healthier (excepting the volume situation).

Until yesterday, ranges have been narrow and intraday trading for trend following has been difficult. As a result, intraday counter-trending, or catching moves near support or resistance has been the key to profitable trading.  This is another reason why we provide key support and resistance levels. It is an important key to success in a difficult to trade market, where much of what is driving it is news related and not the natural cycling we would typically see. So the way you successfully trade in this environment  will take these factors into account.  As a result, we try to write about a larger perspective for perspective.

Another factor that is a change in perspective is, as we head higher, the profiles we typically use to measure support and resistance is pulling data all the way back to 2007.  The volume has expanded so much in that time span between then and now, the volume from that period is basically insignificant. It is so belittled by the current trading volume, that it is difficult to make projections off it.

Another analysis of volume we do is to look at trends in tick volume over bigger spans of time. For example. over the last two weeks, there has been net selling as the market has headed higher.  So the market has gone 35+ points higher on net selling.  That is something worth pondering.

In the meantime, the Russell 2000 has done nothing but consolidate over this time and is in a net downtrend as of this writing on a half day chart (which is a significant cycle).

Because of these factors, we urge caution on the long side.

Due to no reports tomorrow, range trading is fairly likely as pushing above 1277 and to new highs will be difficult without larger participation.

Basic Support and resistance as of this time consists of 1380.50 to the upside and 1353.75 to 1358.50 to the downside.

We will know a bit more on Sunday.

All the best,

EMF Team