EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for February, 2012

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
2nd will be posted later on tonight, we are having some data issues.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (will be
posted later on tonight, we are having some data issues)

There are no changes to the forecast from the Thursday tentative
forecast.

We expect the market to make a high in the beginning of the week, around
Monday and then decline thereafter and possibly rebound into Friday as
shown in the forecast G-line.

We have tested the 1367.50 high and backed off of it on Friday so all the
forecasted levels for this coming week are still in play.

Bernanke will be speaking throughout the week so we could see some
increased volatility mixed together with lots of economic news on
Thursday.

Next weeks levels currently are at 1372-75 for resistance or highs and
1352 and next one down around 1341 as support magnets or lows.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
2nd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
“Next Week”)

We expect the market to make a high in the beginning of the week, around
Monday and then decline thereafter and possibly rebound into Friday as
shown in the forecast G-line.

So far this week the market has stayed at the same level and it did gap up
on Monday at our previously forecasted 1364 level as high.

Tomorrow we are looking at 9:55 consumer sentiment and 10am New home sales
which could push the market higher into 1371 level and 1352 on the
downside.

Depending on what we do tomorrow next weeks levels currently are at
1372-75 for resistance or highs and 1352 and next one down around 1341 as
support magnets or lows.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative / Official Forecast

The tentative / official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week into the Wednesday PM Thursday AM area and then decline from there.

The employment report got the market turning early this AM after having been substantially lower over night.  This resilience to keep testing the highs is wearing away at the bears and as earnings do well in key sectors, we are likely testing higher in the longer term.  The longer term cycle, therefore, remains up as we have been noting recently.  As a result it is important to be careful of quick rallies out of the hole as happened today. Another way it manifests is as turns that come early as opposed to later.

Analyzing the weekly and monthly charts shows we are in a double up trend on both those charts. On the weekly, we still have a healthy advance into the 1364 area. IF we exceed that by any margin, we will be over bought and will require consolidation before heading higher. If we do go into consolidation before that level, it is even more bullish.  On the Monthly chart, we are seeing a projection into the 1460 area before it is an unhealthy advance.  So, this is doubly bullish, at least for now.
That 1364 area also corresponds to a high volume node we are seeing on our profile charts.  We certainly expect to see some profit taking in this area (1362-1364), so keep an eye on this area.

To the downside, I am seeing virgin points at the following areas-  1351.30, 1336 and 1323.   Look for the 1351-2 area as support tomorrow if we do not open lower. otherwise, the 1336 is key.
This is a holiday weekend. Many are not working tomorrow. This may open the door for a bit of downside, but be aware as we have short weeks, it can be difficult for the forecaster to make its normal computations-  The market is open for regular hours tomorrow, but Monday is an early AM close.  Therefore, ignore that data on the forecaster.
Use caution in the down cycles as we are definitely in a longer term bull phase and have been since October. As a result, buying will likely come in to place with longer time frame (bigger money) players on dips.

As previously mentioned, it is very important to be aware of the levels we report in the update because the cycles can change early (and sometimes abruptly) following hitting these key areas. Please also note when we have large gaps on Monday AM, it can skew the view on the forecaster by showing less movement in price than actually occurred due to the gap.

This forecast is both the tentative and the official forecast due to the holiday, so there will be no update on Sunday this week.
Have a great President’s day holiday.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February
17th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to make a high in the beginning of the week and then
decline thereafter.

We are already up 7 points in the globex session, so should be a good
start for further push towards 1352's early this week.

There are no economic news on Monday but give the small range on Friday
and a potentially big gap up tomorrow morning we could see a higher range
day.

Next weeks levels currently are 1352 and 58 if we reach into that
territory. Support should come in at 1331 and next one down around 1322 as
magnets or lows.

Some European news jitters are creating uncertainty in this market and
expanded range is expected next week. So fast and sudden moves are
especially on the radar for next week. Bernanke is speaking again on
Thursday at 9am, so we could see some reaction there.

Wishing you the very best!

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February
17th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
“Next Week”)

We expect the market to make a high in the beginning of the week and then
decline thereafter.

Market has continued to push higher against our forecast this week.

Tomorrow there are some economic news out and Bernanke speaks at 12:30 so
we could see some expanded range and tomorrows levels are set at 1349 and
52.25 as highs and 1339 as a target on the down side.

Depending on what we do tomorrow next weeks levels currently are 1345-48
for resistance or highs and 13331 and next one down around 1322 as support
magnets or lows.

Some European news jitters are creating uncertainty in this market and
expanded range is expected next week. So fast and sudden moves are
especially on the radar for next week.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 10th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline into mid week and then rise from there.

Current week’s forecast was correct, the turn came a day early after hitting our key level of 1297 and turning sharply from there.  We gapped through our key level of 1330 on Friday and, as mentioned, the unemployment figures set the tone for the day and sent the market higher. We saw Friday rise on relatively low volume however for such a significant breakout.  At the same time we expanded past the average weekly range upward and, in the process hit some very key resistance levels on our quarter day chart.

There is another cluster of resistance at the 1363 to 1371 area, but based on the current cycle/forecast and range expansion feel some profit taking is likely that will likely cause a sell off for a few days.  In the event we do push higher, breaking Fridays highs on high volume, we could see the above mentioned levels this week coming (based on the normal weekly ranges).

To the downside, we are seeing two key areas: 1322 and the 1308-1310.25 area.  Both of these areas are possible given the ranges we are seeing, so use caution, and be tight on risk around the 1322 area.

Use caution in the down cycles as we are definitely in a longer term bull phase and have been since October. As a result, buying will likely come in to place with longer time frame (bigger money) players on dips.

As previously mentioned, it is very important to be aware of the levels we report in the update because the cycles can change early (and sometimes abruptly) following hitting these key areas. Please also note when we have large gaps on Monday AM, it can skew the view on the forecaster by showing less movement in price than actually occurred due to the gap.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 10th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline into mid week and then rise from there.

Current week’s forecast was correct, the turn came a day early after hitting our key level of 1297 and turning sharply from there.

It is very important to be aware of the levels we report in the update because the cycles can change early (and sometimes abruptly) following hitting these key areas. Please also note when we have large gaps on Monday AM, it can skew the view on the forecaster by showing less movement in price than actually occurred due to the gap.

Currently we are seeing the 1308 level below as key and the 1330 area still stands as the upper expected limit.

The market currently awaits the unemployment rate figures tomorrow before the open.  This should set the tone for tomorrow.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team