EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for September, 2011

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
October 7th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to come down into Wednesday and then recover a bit by
Friday.

We are making lower highs on the daily chart and the ranges keep expanding
intraday as well, this is usually a sign of a downtrend.

The first support for next week comes in at 1,100, if we break that with
volume we could see 1,070.50.

To the upside resistance remains 1,189 and 1,239.

This week we did start to move higher but we moved too high too soon and
are now retracting ahead of the current forecast.

Tomorrow, Friday we are looking at resistance to come in at 1167.5 and
1177.75, today's move up was pretty strong and we will see if there is any
continuation, a gap up in the am could provide a shorting opportunity
especially if it happens around mentioned levels, and to keep those shorts
into next week.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September
30th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

We are in a strong downtrend and expect a trend change right in this area
we are in now. Be aware however this is a very strong downtrend, so the
struggle going up will be weak OR, it will be very strong. One of the two.
We will see what tomorrow brings to resolve that subject.

If we find support in the current area, we could see as high as 1153. To
the downside, we are currently seeing 1100 as support.

The current forecast has been correct. Until this current downtrend is
overcome by new buying, we will expect rallies to be fairly short lived, so
protect profits quickly on longs.

Be sure to sign up for the Market Map webinar as it is selling out fast
(it's free but has a limit). This informational webinar and Q&A session is
for both experienced and new users on this Monday September 26th. Sign up
here:

http://www.anymeeting.com/PIID=EA50D9868548

Make a list of your questions.  We will do our very best to cover them.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September 30th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

We are in a strong downtrend and expect a trend change right in this area we are in now. Be aware however this is a very strong downtrend, so the struggle going up will be weak OR, it will be very strong. One of the two. We will see what tomorrow brings to resolve that subject.

If we find support in the current area, we could see as high as 1153. To the downside, we are currently seeing 1100 as support.

The current forecast has been correct. Until this current downtrend is overcome by new buying, we will expect rallies to be fairly short lived, so protect profits quickly on longs.

Be sure to sign up for the Market Map webinar as it is selling out fast (it’s free but has a limit). This informational webinar and Q&A session is for both experienced and new users on this Monday September 26th. Sign up
here:

http://www.anymeeting.com/PIID=EA50D9868548

Make a list of your questions.  We will do our very best to cover them.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
September 30th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

We are in a strong downtrend and expect a trend change right in this area
we are in now. Be aware however this is a very strong downtrend, so the
struggle going up will be weak OR, it will be very strong. One of the two.
We will see what tomorrow brings to resolve that subject.

If we find support in the current area, we could see as high as 1153. To
the downside, we are currently seeing 1100 as support.

The current forecast has been correct. Until this current downtrend is
overcome by new buying, we will expect rallies to be fairly short lived, so
protect profits quickly on longs.

Be sure to sign up for the Market Map webinar as it is selling out fast
(it's free but has a limit). This informational webinar and Q&A session is
for both experienced and new users on this Monday September 26th at 16:15
ET. Sign up here:

http://www.anymeeting.com/PIID=EA50D9868548

Make a list of your questions.  We will do our very best to cover them.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September
23rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next
week all week.

We are in a strong uptrend and expect a trend change right in this area we
are in now. More upside into the 1216-1218 area is not unlikely based on
today's higher close. If we break though this level on volume or on a
closing basis, we may expect to go as high as 1235, however, if the market
sells off  below the 1202 area, we will expect to see the 1181-1188 area.

If we open above the 1221 area on Monday, we expect to see the 1228-1229
area before heading lower.  If we open below 1202, then we should continue
to at least the 1195 area.

The current forecast has been correct and easy to trade. The anticipated
up trend has been strong coming off recent lows. As mentioned previously,
and particularly during down cycles in the current environment it is likely
best to keep the trading tight with tight risk management.

The webinar for the new Market Map Website was highly successful with
nearly 300 attendees.  Unfortunately, our efforts to record it failed.  We
will be staging another informational webinar and Q&A session for both
experienced and new users on September 26th. Sign up here:

http://www.anymeeting.com/PIID=EA50D9868548

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
September 23rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to decline next week all week.

We are in a strong uptrend and expect a trend change right in this area we
are in now. More upside into the 1218 area is not unlikely based on today's
higher  lose. If we continue higher tomorrow, we might expect the 1230
area. Weekly and monthly trends remain down as the daily tries to hook
upward. So, as we forecast a down week, be aware there are forces that may
keep this week fairly shallow. To the downside the 1172-1176 area is not
unlikely however, so use caution as rallies may overcome selling.

The current forecast has been correct and easy to trade. The anticipated
up trend has been strong coming off recent lows. As mentioned previously,
and particularly during down cycles it is likely best to keep the trading
tight with tight risk management.

The webinar for the new Market Map Website was highly successful with
narly 300 attendees.  Unfortunately, our efforts to record it failed.  We
will be staging another informational webinar and Q&A session for both
experienced and new users on September 26th. Sign up here:

http://www.anymeeting.com/PIID=EA50D9868548

We do not expect any changes on Sunday, but will update the levels if
relevant.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September
16th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next
week
all week.

We hit the predicted 1145 area from Thursdays update and do expect a
likely cycle bottom here. So the up forecast might have some extra energy
behind it.

To the downside we see support at the 1129 area. Going up, we see the
1213-1216 and 1224 areas as key.  Before seeing this however, we should see
some resistance at the 1176 and 1185 areas.  Breaking 1189 on volume and or
on a closing basis will strongly suggest we will see the 1213 area.

The current forecast has been correct on a cycle basis, but it has been
hard to trade with all the overnight action. Trading on shorter time-frames
remains less risky.

We are now on the December contracts.  Please make a note of it- and roll
your contracts if you have not already done so.

The new, shorter term forecaster will become available soon and there will
be a webinar on the 14th (Wednesday) at 5:30 PM Eastern time.  Please put
it on your calendar as we will be going over features on the platform and
various uses we have found to be of good value. The webinar will be
more-or-less informal in order to meet the needs of all participants.
Attendees will also be able to log on to the platform to use it live during
the webinar and we will openly answer questions about the use of the Market
Map. Don't miss it!!

Here is a link to sign up for the event:

http://onlinetradercentral.com/presenter_U37CQE.asp

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
September
16th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next
Week")

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

The current forecast has been correct on a cycle basis, but it has been
hard to trade with all the overnight action. Trading on shorter time-frames
remains less risky.  We are seeing a series of higher lows (8/22 & 9/6).
If we are able to break the 1223 area on volume and or on a closing basis
we will likely see movement into 1238 and then the 1284 areas (on a near to
longer term basis). We did see a turn today however, so we might expect a
bit of testing to the downside before heading higher. To the downside we
expect to see the 1156 area and possibly the 1145 area before heading
higher.  We will know more after tomorrow.

Friday the exchanges are holding moments of silence in memory of the 9/11
anniversary at the following times. 7:46 am CT, 8:03 am CT, 8:59 am CT and
9:29 am CT.  It is asked that you respectfully refrain from trading at
these times.

We are still in a downtrend on longer term cycles, so it is advised that
caution be used on long trading as is prudent.

The new, shorter term forecaster will become available soon and there will
be a webinar on the 14 at 5:30 PM Eastern time.  Please put it on your
calendar as we will be going over features on the platform and various uses
we have found to be of good value. The webinar will be more-or-less
informal in order to meet the needs of all participants. Attendees will
also be able to log on to the platform to use it live during the webinar
and we will openly answer questions about the use of the Market Map. Don't
miss it!!

More on Sunday.

Cheers,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative/Official Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September 9th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next
Week”)

We expect the market to continue to decline next week all week.

The current forecast has been slow to decline as predicted and the bullish tendency coming out of the base continued, though in a fairly sluggish manner. Due to this, the model is continuing to see a decline through next week.  Please remember next week is a short week due to the holiday on Monday.  Because of that, this forecast will also be the official forecast.

As previously mentioned, the 1189 area would be a resistance area and we ended up opening at or about that area on Monday.  The 1212 area was seen as a definitive  failure of the previous forecast.  The daily ranges are large, yet by looking at the daily chart, it does not look that big, though we did break from the base, and this is bullish. As a result, we expect to see market action testing the 1170 area in the coming week. There is also a gap on the chart from last Monday at the 1180 area, so that area should also be a magnet price during the week. As previously mentioned, we could see new lows after the first week of September or so based on the longer term cycling we are seeing.

The new, shorter term forecaster will become available soon.  This is a remarkable tool and is particularly well suited to high volatility environments because it operates in a smaller time dimension.  Stay tuned for more on the MarketMap.
If you have been testing the map, I like to use the 3:05 to 9:25 time range set to one.  This has proven over time to be my favorite setting, though others have been pleased with other settings.  We will have a webinar soon to introduce the use of the tool.

One final note: Be cautious with money management.  High volatility makes trading difficult. Be prepared to have larger stops, or keep things tight for best results.  When ranges expand it is like trading more contracts (more leverage), so there is nothing wrong with reducing size during periods where volatility is high.

Have a great holiday.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team