EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for June, 2011

EMF Tentative / Official Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 8th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline into the Thursday the 7th PM / Friday the 8th AM area and then rise from there.

We are seeing resistance at the 1324 area. There is some possibility for the 1335 area, but the cycle is showing down from here, so hopefully the  1317.50 should hold for this cycle.  To the downside, we are seeing the 1281 area at this time, but in the nearer term we are also seeing 1296 as support.

Daily ranges have been contracted significantly in recent sessions with the several day rally we are seeing.  Volatility cycling recently has been different than usual, probably due to news releases at various times in the cycle (ie. Greece and the FED etc.). The $VIX index is now at 16.5 as of this writing, which corresponds to about a 1% daily range (about 13 points). Keep this in mind when placing orders as it is best to place orders where you are within that margin off a low or high when trading so stops are less likely to be hit.

As always manage your risk tightly and preserve capital.

This is a Holiday weekend, so the current tentative forecast will stand also as the official forecast, and there will be no update on Sunday and no trading on Monday.

Wishing you the very best, and a wonderful Holiday!

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 1st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There is a change to the forecast. We expect the market to continue to decline into the Wednesday PM Thursday AM area and then rise from there.

With the market in decline on Friday, our current forecast has shifted. We are currently seeing pivots on or about the 30th and the 7th.  With the holiday, there could be some differences, but for now that is what we are seeing on the forecast.

Actions in the past week, involving Greece, the Fed and factors influencing crude oil have put pressures on the market to the downside. The market volatility has risen and ranges have expanded which include 30 point swings almost overnight.

We are seeing support in the 1252 and 1257 areas. This does not leave a huge amount of downside. As a result be cautious that the amplitudes on the forecast may be smaller than expected. To the upside we are expecting to see
1296 and then above that the 1330s are will come into play.

As always manage your risk tightly and preserve capital.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 1st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to continue to rise into the Wednesday PM Thursday AM area and then decline from there.

This upside cycle started about a day earlier than expected. The market volatility has been high and variable with news stories hitting the wires and the FED’s negative comments.  We do however expect the forecast to continue up as posted into or about the 30th.  We do have a holiday coming in which can potentially shift things a bit, but since the holiday is on Monday, it should not have that great an impact from the way it looks now.

We are seeing support in the 1257 area which is today’s low. To the upside we are expecting to see 1296 and then above that the 1330s are will come into play.

Daily ranges have been expanded in recent days, but dropped today as is consistent with the forecast.  The $VIX index is now at 19.3 as of this writing, which corresponds to an 15.4 point range. It is always good to keep this in mind when placing orders as it is best to
place orders where you are within that margin off a low or high when trading so stops are less likely to be hit.

As always manage your risk tightly and preserve capital.  We do not anticipate any changes to the forecast but will update on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to continue to decline into the Tuesday PM / Wednesday AM area and then rise from there.

We are seeing support in the 1246 area which is not too far from the current levels.  There is also a significant support area in the 1235.75 area.  To the upside 1286-89 is a strong resistance area.

Daily ranges have expanded substantially in recent days.  The $VIX index is now at 23.4 as of this writing, which corresponds to an 18.4 point range. It is always good to keep this in mind when placing orders as it is best to place orders where you are within that margin off a low or high when trading so stops are less likely to be hit.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June
24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to continue to decline into the Tuesday PM /
Wednesday AM area and then rise from there.

We are seeing support in the 1246 area which is not too far from the
current levels.  There is also a significant support area in the 1235.75
area.  To the upside 1286-89 is a strong resistance area.

Daily ranges have expanded substantially in recent days.  The $VIX index
is now at 23.4 as of this writing, which corresponds to an 18.4 point
range. It is always good to keep this in mind when placing orders as it is
best to place orders where you are within that margin off a low or high
when trading so stops are less likely to be hit.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 17th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise into mid week next week, and then decline from there.

Friday’s strong decline was contrary to the model’s forecast. This indicates just how strong the down-trend is.  Expect upside movements to be swift, strong and potentially short lived.

The Gline is showing a bit of rise later in the week past the expected turn point. This suggests some consolidation on the model. As a result, we expect consolidation to downside movement following the Wednesday AM area.

We expect to see 1312 and 1335 as resistance and the 1270 area as support.
We have rolled to the September contracts as of today, so levels are quoted on that contract. I am writing this a bit earlier than usual but the 1280 area should hold.  Violations of this on a closing basis or on volume suggest the down bias may continue.  We are expecting the 1261 area to hold.

We are definitely seeing some expansion in the $VIX index in the last few days of last week, but due to the size of the decline, the daily range is about the same. Daily ranges have remained steady in the last week at the
14-15 point area. It is always good to keep this in mind when placing orders as it is best to place orders where you are within that margin off a low or high when trading so stops are less likely to be hit. We have noticed in the last couple weeks stops have been hit in a wider range than normal as
intraday cycling has been more likely to test extremes.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June
17th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to rise into mid week next week, and then decline
from there.

It looks like we are starting our ascent a bit late as yesterday's efforts
to rally were impeded.  We do expect the up-trend to gather strength
however and turn higher in the near term.  We do also believe cycling
continues to be on track for the model.  There has been a downward bias
recently- so the longer term trend is down and we are fighting against
that, so expect the market may be anemic in its rise.

We expect to see 1312 and 1335 as resistance and the 1270 area as support.
We have rolled to the September contracts as of today, so levels are quoted
on that contract. I am writing this a bit earlier than usual but the 1280
area should hold.  Violations of this on a closing basis or on volume
suggest the down bias may continue.

Daily ranges have remained steady in the last week at the 14-15 point
area. It is always good to keep this in mind when placing orders as it is
best to place orders where you are within that margin off a low or high
when trading so stops are less likely to be hit. We have noticed in the
last couple weeks stops have been hit in a wider range than normal as
intraday cycling has been more likely to test extremes.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 10th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline into mid week and then rise from there.

The forecast has again followed well this week and it looks like the cycling is on track.  There has been a downward bias for a number of weeks now and the market has struggled to get into higher ground.  It is likely this pattern will continue on the longer term.

Daily ranges are in the 14-15 point range right now so volatility is on the rise a bit.  We See 1322-1325 as a resistance area at this time and this morning’s low of 1295 or so as support. Below this we do see support at 1264 as support, so if there is a break to the downside with volume and/or on a closing basis, this area will become a potential support area.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 10th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next
Week”)

We expect the market to decline into mid week and then rise from there.

The forecast has again followed well this week and it looks like the cycling is on track.  There has been a downward bias for a number of weeks now and the market has struggled to get into higher ground.  It is likely this pattern will continue on the longer term.

Daily ranges are in the 14-15 point range right now so volatility is on the rise a bit.  We See 1322-1325 as a resistance area at this time and this morning’s low of 1304 or so as support.

I do not expect any changes over the weekend, but we will still report on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team