EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for May, 2011

Thursday Forecast

The tentative/Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
June 3rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to rise into Tuesday and then decline from there.

The forecast has followed well this week and it looks like the cycling is
back on track.  There has been a downward bias for a number of weeks now
and the market has struggled to get into higher ground.  It is likely this
pattern will continue, at least for now.

We have a gap on our intraday chart that will close at the 1327 area. So
expect a test of that area. Above that we see the 1340 area as key.  To the
downside 1296 is key. A close below this area on volume will bring in the
1250 area as a key area.

I do not expect any changes over the weekend. So this is also the official
forecast for next week.

Please also remember that Monday is a Holiday- So enjoy!

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Team

EminiForecaster Official Forecast

The offical EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 27th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next week all week.

Actions of the Federal Reserve shifted our down bias to an up bias. Even though we appear to be wrong this week then, we will expect the market to continue up next week.  We are however playing with new highs here, so it will take some volume to break through and I would not be surprised to see some retracement and struggle on breaking through higher.

In recent weeks many of my trading models have been off and it seems there is a fundamental change happening in the market.  This seemed to start about the 3rd week of March until now.  The volatility has been low and the market has toyed with a 30 point range or so.

Support and resistance 1315-1320 and 1345-1350.  Breaks of these area on volume and/or on a closing basis will constitute a trend and establishing a new range.

As always, manage risk prudently.  I had quite a few conversations with traders who have had margin issues on their accounts due to over trading in recent weeks.  Remember, the ES contract is approximately $66,250 worth of stock right now.  If you trade this with $15k in your account, you are trading at about 4.5:1 to cash. Being aware of these ratios is key to good money management.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative/offical EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 27th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

Actions of the Federal Reserve shifted our down bias to an up bias. Even though we appear to be wrong this week then, we will expect the market to continue up next week.  We are however playing with new highs here, so it will take some volume to break through and I would not be surprised to see some retracement and struggle on breaking through higher.

1356 is a likely area to be seen from our current standing with support in the 1334 area.

In recent weeks many of my trading models have been off and it seems there is a fundamental change happening in the market.  This seemed to start about the 3rd week of March until now.  The volatility has been low and the market has toyed with a 30 point range or so.

Let’s see what happens tomorrow and see if any adjustment is needed by Sunday-

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 20th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week all week.  I am seeing a pivot on Monday the 16th.  This typically would occur early in the day on Monday, but we will expect a high on Monday and then a fairly long down cycle that should continue through the whole week. This cycle could last through the end of the month if all else remains constant.

The market has fit the forecast this last week, finding a low today, but it has been hard to trade.  I am expecting to see more consistent cycling going forward after at least 3 weeks f=of difficult cycling and ranging.  We have seen quick expansions and contractions in volatility that has caused some havoc with our  models.  Both EMF and other models.  Typically when the market comes in out of sync with out cycles, it can take a couple alternations to get back in sync again.

Volatility continues to be low with the $VIX index at around 15% annually.
This is typically bullish if it sustains, so use caution and keep money management tight with a longer term bias towards longs.  Often when we see the cycling like we mentioned above, it forebodes some volatility, so if we see some range expansions in the coming week, it is likely safe to hop on upward retracements going short (at or about previous days highs and or Globex highs etc.

On the support / resistance front, we are seeing 1330 for the lows and 1355 for the highs.

More on Sunday-

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff
P.S.  If you had been considering auto-trading with Gforce Traders, now is a good time.  We have recently had a bit of a shakeout and so believe it is a good time to get started.

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 13th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. The G-line forecast is suggesting that we will make another dip mid week before we start to bounce.

The current forecast is clearly being effected by an initial elation on Sunday night of the big news and then inevitable sell off – buy the news, sell the news. Plus the jobs report didn’t help our line.

Nevertheless Monday and Tuesday looked pretty good but we just kept on sliding down without much break.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 10th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
“Next Week”)

G-line forecast is suggesting that we will make another dip mid week
before we start to bounce.

The current forecast is clearly being effected by an initial elation on
Sunday night of the big news and then inevitable sell off - buy the news,
sell the news. Plus the jobs report didn't help our line.

Nevertheless Monday and Tuesday looked pretty good but we just kept on
sliding down without much break.

We will have more on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The offical EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 6th is
now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next
week all week.

We are in somewhat of a Support and resistance no-mans-land due to closing
at multi-month highs on Friday.  I would intuitively expect some pullback
from this, particularly if the government does not pump more news of free
money into the system.  Therefore, though the forecast is up, we urge
caution.

The market has gone against us this week, largely from the Fed extending
its assurance of free money to Wall Street.  Now that we have broken out of
resistance areas, this is likely to continue. This type of policy goes
against what all other Feds of various countries have done. At some point
we will have to pay for it.  The National Inflation Association said today
the Fed has spent over $4 million for each job created since 2008 and that
it would have been better to simply give citizens cash if they had wanted
the economy to "grow."  It seems the job growing schemes are designed to
funnel citizens money into the markets and, at least for now that helps to
push it
higher.

Volatility is low with the $VIX index at around 15% annually.

We had previously mentioned the subcycling of waves in the model. Since
this last week was largely incorrect, I will urge some caution as it is
possible that the cycles are too confused to the model to read this week.
More data should help us to sort this out, but I did want to  mention it
may be risky to take strong bets on a continued rally next week.  Use
caution and keep money management tight.

On the support / resistance front, we are seeing the potential for a
downside move to the 1340 area and then continued upside from there.

We advise you manage risk tightly until we are seeing more consistent
cycling with the model.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff