EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for April, 2011

Thursday Forecast

The tentative/offical EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
May 6th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

The market has gone against us this week, largely from the Fed extending
its assurance of free money to Wall Street.  Now that we have broken out of
resistance areas, this is likely to continue. This type of policy goes
against what all other Feds of various countries have done. At some point
we will have to pay for it.  The National Inflation Association said today
the Fed has spent over $4 million for each job created since 2008 and that
it would have been better to simply give citizens cash if they had wanted
the economy to "grow."  It seems the job growing schemes are designed to
funnel citizens money into the markets and, at least for now that helps to
push it
higher.

Volatility is low with the $VIX index at around 15% annually.

We had previously mentioned the subcycling of waves in the model. Since
this last week was largely incorrect, I will urge some caution as it is
possible that the cycles are too confused to the model to read this week.
More data should help us to sort this out, but I did want to mention it may
be risky to take strong bets on a continued rally next week.  Use caution
and keep money management tight.

On the support / resistance front, we are seeing the potential for a
downside move to the 1340 area and then continued upside to new highs.

More on Sunday-

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The offical EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 29th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to decline next week all week.

We are seeing some subcycling in the pattern on the model and it can be
difficult when we have a shorter wave that modulates the bigger on as it
becomes questionable which wave (of the two) the market is really
following. I feel fairly confident however that the down wave will be in
place over the weekend and into the following week.

Many factors are influencing the markets on a economic and socio-political
front that could lead to volatility, however the bulls remain in control. I
suspect raising the debt ceiling and the free money it will bring to the
street will be a bullish event. In the meantime fiscal conservatives are
gaining strength in their argument that smaller government is going to need
to be a new trend for sustainability. So it will be an interesting time
going forward.  Keep an eye out for changes in the mood however as we do
not have a history for the kinds of things that are going on right now.
Inflation is also a big concern as we see gold and silver testing new
multi-decade highs.

We toyed again with the upper bounds of our range. This supports next week
being a down market. So, unless we blast through 1336 on good volume and on
a close basis, down is the most likely scenario. There is likely support in
the 1320 area, but even stronger support is seen in the 1309 area right
now.

The current forecast has been pretty much spot on as the last four
sessions have seen nothing but upside as expected. This helps the forecast
and, as the sub-cycling washes out in the next week things should become
clearer than usual.

We have a holiday starting today, so enjoy that!  This forecast will stand
as the official forecast as we do not have new data coming in to cause any
changes.

Have a great holiday and, as always manage your risk tightly by selling in
upper parts of the range and buying in lower parts.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

EMF Tentative / Official Forecast

The tentative/offical EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 29th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next
Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week all week.

We are seeing some subcycling in the pattern on the model and it can be difficult when we have a shorter wave that modulates the bigger on as it becomes questionable which wave (of the two) the market is really following.
I feel fairly confident however that the down wave will be in place over the weekend and into the following week.

Many factors are influencing the markets on a economic and socio-political front that could lead to volatility, however the bulls remain in control. I suspect raising the debt ceiling and the free money it will bring to the street will be a bullish event. In the meantime fiscal conservatives are gaining strength in their argument that smaller government is going to need to be a new trend for sustainability. So it will be an interesting time going forward.  Keep an eye out for changes in the mood however as we do not have a history for the kinds of things that are going on right now.
Inflation is also a big concern as we see gold and silver testing new multi-decade highs.

We toyed again with the upper bounds of our range. This supports next week being a down market. So, unless we blast through 1336 on good volume and on a close basis, down is the most likely scenario. There is likely support in the 1320 area, but even stronger support is seen in the 1309 area right now.

The current forecast has been pretty much spot on as the last four sessions have seen nothing but upside as expected. This helps the forecast and, as the sub-cycling washes out in the next week things should become clearer than usual.

We have a holiday starting today, so enjoy that!  This forecast will stand as the official forecast as we do not have new data coming in to cause any changes.

Have a great holiday and, as always manage your risk tightly by selling in upper parts of the range and buying in lower parts.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April
22nd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next
week all week as we are seeing a continuation of the cycling on this long
cycle.

As mentioned previously, we did not feel the forecast reliability factor
was high last week and the market has come down this week.  It is difficult
sometimes deciding between what seems to make sense and what the forecast
may be suggesting as the two can come into conflict.  This is particularly
true when the market becomes choppy and discerning a cycle can be difficult
for the model.  There are several factors that influence cycle trading and
one is that you are only have available 5/7ths of the data (are missing 2
days each week) and the market is only open for about 6.5 out of 24 hours
with appropriate volume for analyzing the cycles.  Then, on top of this
you
get gaps in the data.  As a result, discerning a cycle can get very
difficult at times.  This seems often to correspond with changes in the
seasons when changes occur in the markets as well.

We did manage to see 1336 as the top last week and support at 1300 as
mentioned. This is reassuring as it increases the probability we are now
at the bottom of the cycle (today), though a retest is not unlikely.  We
may see another test of the 1330 to 1335 area before heading further south
as well.

We are seeing a small decline in the $VIX that supports the rally next
week idea.

There are a number of factors with the government that may have an impact
on the markets, though it is more likely the Federal government will
continue to take an easy way of dealing with things regardless of comments
by the IMF that doing so will make fixing things later substantially more
costly. We will probably have to brace ourselves for some serious
consequences down the road and in our future; consequences of high
inflation and financial failures of various sorts.  For now though it is
all about free money for
Wall Street it seems, so things seem complacent (bullish).

Support/resistance levels for the coming week are 1330 and 1336 above and
the 1309 area below.

All the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 15th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next
Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week all week as we are seeing a continuation of the cycling on this long cycle.

As mentioned previously, we did not feel the forecast reliability factor was high last week and the market has come down this week.  It is difficult sometimes deciding between what seems to make sense and what the forecast may be suggesting as the two can come into conflict.  This is particularly true when the market becomes choppy and discerning a cycle can be difficult for the model.  There are several factors that influence cycle trading and one is that you are only have available 5/7ths of the data (are missing 2 days each week) and the market is only open for about 6.5 out of 24 hours with appropriate volume for analyzing the cycles.  Then, on top of this you get gaps in the data.  As a result, discerning a cycle can get very difficult at times.  This seems often to correspond with changes in the seasons when changes occur in the markets as well.

We did manage to see 1336 as the top last week and support at 1300 as mentioned. This is reassuring as it increases the probability we are now at the bottom of the cycle (today), though a retest is not unlikely.  We may see another test of the 1330 to 1335 area before heading further south as well.  I will know more tomorrow on that.

We are seeing a small decline in the $VIX that supports the rally next week idea.

There are a number of factors with the government that may have an impact on the markets, though it is more likely the Federal government will continue to take an easy way of dealing with things regardless of comments by the IMF that doing so will make fixing things later substantially more costly.  We will probably have to brace ourselves for some serious consequences down the road and in our future; consequences of high inflation and financial failures of various sorts.  For now though it is all about free money for Wall Street it seems, so things seem complacent (bullish).

Changes for the Sunday are not expected, but we will update the support/resistance levels on Sunday.

All the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 8th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

It is important to not that with the market working in a tight range for
roughly 8 sessions, that is is difficult for the model to discern that
cycle under these circumstances.  The market certainly look like it is
topping, so while the model is saying we are up, I would strongly urge that
we may begin to see some downside correction beneath Friday's low in the
near future.  It is likely that a correction commencing at this level will
continue into the 1275 area or so.

The bulls have maintained control recently, so that supports the current
cycle as being valid. Therefore, as previously mentioned, be aware of the
market topping in the 1336 area and ultimately making its way lower in the
coming weeks.

This last week has been mostly consolidation and the $VIX index hovers in
the 17% area, or about 14 point average daily range. When we look at
ranges, we, in addition to trying to buy or sell at or near support or
resistance can get some extra risk reduction on market entries by trading
at or near daily range extremes.

We also see some intermediate term support at the 1300 and 1318 levels.
Resistance at the 1330 to 1336 area.

All the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative G-Line forecast for the trading week ending April 15th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

The bulls have maintained control as previously mentioned, however, we are
at or near highs that will likely provide resistance before some correction
takes place. Therefore, be aware of the market topping in the 1336 area.

This last week has been mostly consolidation and the $VIX index hovers in
the 17% area, or about 14 point average daily range. When we look at
ranges, we, in addition to trying to buy or sell at or near support or
resistance can get some extra risk reduction on market entries by trading
at or near daily range extremes.

Today there was another large earthquake in the Northern Japan area. We
are also not out of the woods on the nuclear disaster that is going on
there and the media has seemingly has somewhat of a blackout on this.  This
would suggest we will likely have more consolidation in the coming days.

Changes for the Sunday Forecast are not expected, but we will update the
support/resistance levels on Sunday.

All the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 8th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
"Next Week")

We expect the market to decline next week all week.

The bulls continue to have control of the market seemingly regardless of
severity of the news. As a result, it is important to beware of the
market
trying to test further highs.  1338 is the high for the year on the
continuous contracts as well as the S&P cash index. This should be
considered as the upper bounds of likely price action. The 1310 and 1300
areas are support. If these are breeched on a closing and/or with high
volume, the trend will be down. In the meantime, expect some downside next
week but downward forays  will likely be met with buying. As a result, it
will be wise to take profits quickly.

The cycling appears to be clearer so in the next week or so, we should
start having higher reliability forecasts.

The $VIX index has stabilized in the 18% area.  This means we should
expect daily ranges in the 14 point area.  Moves in excess of this are
indicative of increasing fear in the marketplace.

I do not expect to see any changes to the forecast for Sunday, so the
current line is likely good for next week.

As previously mentioned, be prepared to take more risk in trading over the
next couple weeks and be aware of developing news stories. Try to take
trades at or around key support and resistance areas in order to reduce
risk.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff