EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for March, 2011

EMF Tentative Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 8th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week all week.

The bulls continue to have control of the market seemingly regardless of severity of the news. As a result, it is important to beware of the market trying to test further highs.  1338 is the high for the year on the continuous contracts as well as the S&P cash index. This should be considered as the upper bounds of likely price action. The 1310 and 1300 areas are support. If these are breeched on a closing and/or with high volume, the trend will be down. In the meantime, expect some downside next week but downward forays  will likely be met with buying. As a result, it will be wise to take profits quickly.

The cycling appears to be clearer so in the next week or so, we should start having higher reliability forecasts.

The $VIX index has stabilized in the 18% area.  This means we should expect daily ranges in the 14 point area.  Moves in excess of this are indicative of increasing fear in the marketplace.

I do not expect to see any changes to the forecast for Sunday, so the current line is likely good for next week.

As previously mentioned, be prepared to take more risk in trading over the next couple weeks and be aware of developing news stories. Try to take trades at or around key support and resistance areas in order to reduce risk.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April 1st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There is a change to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next week into the Wednesday close Thursday open area and then rise from there.
We are seeing a sub-cycle on the wave that we mentioned Thursday that after finishing higher on Friday looks like it is more likely promoting a down cycle.  This cycle, as previously suggested, does not come with a super high level of confidence as recent market action has been inconsistent with cycling in the model. This sub-cycle confuses a bit, so we recommend caution this week.

Recent events have made forecasting difficult with nuclear issues and new war activity. The VIX index that is a statistical measure of volatility had risen to above 30 and all the way back down to 18 in just a few days.  This measure is suggesting that in the last week the markets projected days ranging from around 24 points back to around 14.  We do not typically see this kind of fluctuation in expectations and were surprised to see such a sudden drop on the daily ranges.

Looking forward, we expect the market to decline into mid week. There are two cycles working right now and one has a quicker harmonic and they are opposing cycles.  Intuitively, I would expect to see some downside days over the next several trading sessions- so use caution.

We have a strong overhead resistance in the 1320-25 area.  Key resistance is at the 1315 area. To the downside, we are seeing the 1290 to 1295 area as key.

Be prepared to take more risk in trading over the next couple weeks and be aware of developing new stories as we do not see that we are out of the woods on current stories/issues just yet. Try to take trades at or around key support and resistance areas in order to reduce risk.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending April
1st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click "next
week")

We expect the market to rise next week into the Wednesday close Thursday
open area.

Recent events have made forecasting difficult with nuclear issues and new
war activity. The VIX index that is a statistical measure of volatility had
risen to above 30 and all the way back down to 18 in just a few days.  This
measure is suggesting that in the last week the markets projected days
ranging from around 24 points back to around 14.  We do not typically see
this kind of fluctuation in expectations and were surprised to see such a
sudden drop on the daily ranges.

Looking forward, we expect the market to continue its rise into mid week,
however, there are two cycles working right now and one has a quicker
harmonic and they are opposing cycles.  As a result, I do not have a super
high reliability rating on this particular cycle and hope we might have
better information over the weekend.  Intuitively, I would expect to see
some downside days over the next several trading sessions- so use caution.

Be prepared to take more risk in trading over the next couple weeks and be
aware of developing new stories as we do not see that we are out of the
woods on current stories/issues just yet. Try to take trades at or around
key support and resistance areas in order to reduce risk.

For tomorrow, we are seeing potential for resistance at the 1310 area and
support at both the 1290 area.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
25th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next
week all week.

This last week has been difficult for forecasting due to the nuclear
disaster in Japan.  At this point, it looks like all the information on
this event is being controlled by the corporation who built the reactors.
The situation is likely to worsen and there is reason to believe there is a
gap between what is being said and what is actually the case regarding this
matter.  Being that the anticipated cycling is down, this may act as a
catalyst in the coming week to push the market lower.  In the nearer term,
it is difficult to predict but news surprises and variance will promote
volatility.  The VIX index has doubled in recent times and it is expected
that the volatility will remain at fairly high levels.

There is little or no acknowledgement in the market of the reports showing
substantial current inflation and the Japanese situation could also act to
increase inflation as well.  At the same time, the government is talking
about making cuts that are more-or-less inconsequential and projecting
budgets that are as little as three weeks into the future.  But, the market
continued to attempt to rally last week.  Look for that pattern to shift
going into this week towards bearish.

Be prepared to take more risk from this volatility with the anticipation
of higher rewards.  Try to take trades at or around key support and
resistance areas in order to reduce risk.

We are seeing potential for support and resistance at the 1285-1290 area
and support at both the 1243 and 1263 areas.  Be cautious of news this week
as it may still continue to impact the markets strongly this week.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
25th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click "Next
Week")

We expect the market to decline next week all week.

This last week has been difficult for forecasting due to the nuclear
disaster in Japan.  At this point, it looks like all the information on
this event is being controlled by the corporation who built the reactors.
The situation is likely to worsen and there is reason to believe there is a
gap between what is being said and what is actually the case regarding this
matter.  Being that the anticipated cycling is down, this may act as a
catalyst in the coming week to push the market lower.  In the nearer term,
it is difficult to predict but news surprises and variance will promote
volatility.  The VIX index has doubled in recent times and it is expected
that the volatility will remain at fairly high levels.

There is little or no acknowledgement in the market of the reports showing
substantial current inflation and the Japanese situation could also act to
increase inflation as well.  At the same time, the government is talking
about making cuts that are more-or-less inconsequential and projecting
budgets that are as little as three weeks into the future.  But, the market
has continued to attempt to rally this week and today.  Look for that
pattern to shift going into next week towards bearish.

Be prepared to take more risk from this volatility with the anticipation
of higher rewards.  Try to take trades at or around
key support and resistance areas in order to reduce risk.

For tomorrow we see resistance at 1283 to 1290 and support at or about
1254 (unless there is bad news).

More on Sunday-

All the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 18th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next week all week.

As mentioned, keep in mind there is likely an overall downward bias in the works here. So, we should expect some upside but not huge. People are starting to feel to inflation the government cannot hide, ie. Fuel costs. This increase in expense will trickle into all aspects of the economy and will cause rises in the costs of just about everything if it continues. This is a fear that could put some strain on the markets going forward.

Also be aware of problems occurring in Asia and their impact on the US markets.

This last weeks forecast has been consistent with the forecast and it appears the bears are gaining control. This is coming with increases in volatility, also as predicted.  Therefore, we will expect some resistance to upside movement in the coming week, but with an overall upside bias.

We have rolled to the new June contract as of Thursday. We expect to see tests of the 1305 to 1310 area on the June contract.

Remember this weekend is a time change and the clocks will spring forward in celebration of the new season.  This may have some people out of sync with things for the week as they adjust to the new timing in the mornings.

Look for support in the 1285 area.  A break of this on volume will be decidedly bearish. To the upside we have a gap on the chart at the 1300 area. This will likely provide some resistance and above that , the 1320 area.

As previously mentioned, be prepared to take more risk from this volatility with the anticipation of higher rewards.  Try to take trades at or around key support and resistance areas in order to reduce risk.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
18th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click "Next
Week")

We expect the market to rise next week all week.

This last weeks forecast has been consistent with the forecast and it
appears the bears are gaining control. This is coming with increases in
volatility, also as predicted.  Therefore, we will expect some resistance
to upside movement in the coming week, but with an overall upside bias.

We have rolled to the new June contract as of today. We expect to see
tests of the 1305 to 1310 area on the June contract. We will have more
insight on the key levels as we go into the weekend.

Remember this weekend is a time change and the clocks will spring forward
in celebration of the new season.  This may have some people out of sync
with things for the week as they adjust to the new timing in the mornings.

As previously mentioned, be prepared to take more risk from this
volatility with the anticipation of higher rewards.  Try to take trades at
or around key support and resistance areas in order to reduce risk.

More on Sunday-

All the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 11th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next week all week.

Keep in mind that the bulls will likely buy afternoon lows causing quick relief rallies; a pattern that has been in place for many months.

Look for support in the 1300 area. We also saw a quick 10 point rally off the Friday lows. This area may provide some resistance that will likely result in consolidation around this area.

Volatility is on the rise and this is bearish as previously mentioned.  Be prepared to take more risk from this volatility with the anticipation of higher rewards.  Try to take trades at or around key support and resistance areas in order to reduce risk.

All the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
11th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click "Next
Week")

We expect the market to decline next week all week.

A large range down day from the Libyan situation on Tuesday confused our
cycling, but aside from that, the market has cycled up as  expected. It
would not be unlikely to retest that low area from earlier in the week
(1301) going forward if the market does not have a strong close above the
1333 area.

Volatility is on the rise and this is bearish as previously mentioned.  Be
prepared to take more risk from this volatility with the anticipation of
higher rewards.  Try to take trades at or around key support and resistance
areas in order to reduce risk.

More on Sunday.

All the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff