EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for December, 2010

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending January
7th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
“Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week all week. Next week is the first
week of the new year and we expect higher volatility and volume which has
been absent for the last week or so.

Nevertheless we are seeing the market climb up this week as our G-Line
forecast suggested. We expect another quiet day tomorrow before the new
years day.

We want to wish you a Happy New Year and a prosperous 2011!

EMF Staff

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December 31st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

The market has continued to drift slightly upward on very low volume. We expect the market to rise next week all week. Next week is also a holiday week so disregard Gline data for Friday as the market will be closed. As previously stated, expect that the markets may be thin and may be subject to more un-predictable ranges than usual; either wider or smaller. Expect resistance in the 1285 area before we are likely to see more robust declines after the new year.

The bulls have maintained control in recent weeks so it is likely they will not give in to declines too much, as previously stated.  The holidays are often quiet and this is no exception; gentle trends are likely to continue as long as there is no event to trigger an opposing move.

At this time we do not have sufficient evidence to know if the cycle is shifting to an opposing phase, so be tight on risk control going forward with a bias towards the bull side.

This is also the official forecast for the week, due to the holiday(s).

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December 24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next week all week. Next week is a holiday
so disregard Gline data for Friday as the market will be closed. Expect that the markets may be thin and may be subject to more un-predictable ranges than usual; either wider or smaller.

The bulls have maintained control in recent weeks so it is likely they will not give in to declines, so be fairly tight on opportunities to profit in this down cycle.

On Friday we saw resistance to the 1242.25 level as mentioned. This is the recent high on the new March 2011 contract. So this should
provide resistance to further upside. Sells around this area should be fairly safe.  Closes through this area on volume exceeding 2 million contracts could be indicative of a break-out.

From time to time, we see shifts in the cycling that impact our forecasts. There is potential for this as this week is suspicious of not following as well as it should. If we are off into the next couple cycles, we will know.  It is better when this happens around the holidays when the markets are not volatile and drift. Either way, we will keep you posted on possible variations in accuracy.

At this time we do not have sufficient evidence to know if the cycle is shifting to an opposing phase, so be tight on risk control going forward.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December 24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next
Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week all week. Next week is a holiday so disregard Gline data for Friday as the market will be closed.

We have seen an increase in volatility this week though the bulls still maintain control as was evidenced by today’s come back.  We expect a down cycle next week, but be cautious as the markets may be thin.  During holiday markets, as mentioned in the past, we can sometimes see one side getting control over the other in absence of many traders who may be biased one way over the other.

1242.25 is the recent high on the new March 2011 contract. So this should provide resistance to further upside. Sells around this are should be fairly safe.  Closes through this area on volume exceeding 2 million contracts could be indicative of a break-out.

From time to time, we see shifts in the cycling that impact our forecasts.
There is potential for this as this week is suspicious of not following as well as it should. If we are off into the next couple cycles, we will know.
It is better when this happens around the holidays when the markets are not volatile and drift. Either way, we will keep you posted on possible variations in accuracy.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

EMF Staff

EMF Tentative / Official Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December 17th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week all week into Thursday PM / Friday AM area. Market keeps trying to rally this week into yearly highs of 1230+ and, though the forecast is down, the bulls continue to try to push higher, particularly in night trading.  As a result, next week, with the expected up cycle, they should be able to make new highs.  This is also consistent with this time of year being seasonally up.  As long as we do not get any
particularly bad news, this mood/tendency should continue.

We rolled to the new March 2011 contract today.  Short opportunities are likely good tomorrow for short term trading opportunities. This is particularly true at a test of the 1230-1232 area.  Buys in the 1214 area are also particularly low risk. Be cautious of the reduced volatility we have seen in recent weeks ($VIX=17.25, equating to a 13 point average daily range).  Either the shorter term trades will be fairly quick, or look to be long on a longer time frame.

We do not expect any forecast change going into next week so will likely update on Sunday accordingly.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December
10th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to pull back
next
week all week. Market did manage to rally up to 1227 level and has backed
off after employment numbers on Friday.

We expect the lows to come in at around 1205-1210, people will be buying
pullbacks this month hoping for a breakout into or in the next year
January.

However, we all know that S&P does not like to spend too much time in a
trending mode and corrections usually come when enough people are hurt
trying to short tops and when most people expect the rally to continue.

Current market conditions a very similar to March-Apr of this year, end of
last year and the end of 2006 (see links below ) -

http://eminiforecaster.com/images/CURRENT.bmp


http://eminiforecaster.com/images/MID10.bmp


http://eminiforecaster.com/images/09.bmp


http://eminiforecaster.com/images/06.bmp

It will take lots of optimism about the economy and money printing before
we can move this market much higher. The real estate market is still in the
dumps, unemployment is not moving but prices are rising. Will see what
happens, this is generally a dicing few weeks for the market to make up its
mind on the direction.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December
10th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
“Next Week”)

We expect the market to pull back next week all week. Market is rallying
this week into yearly highs of 1230+ and the rally began this week a day
earlier than the forecast suggested.

We expect the Market to test the highs and back off of them and possibly
make another run for new highs of the year towards the end of the month.

Last week we indicated that "We have some gaps and lapses in both
directions on our daily chart that tells us how questionable this market
really is. This is especially true since the QE2 announcement by the fed."
Everybody is excited about the market and the economy even though
fundamentally little has changed. Much of this month's market action will
depend of Korean situation and tax decisions, market does not like
uncertainty.

Tomorrow is Employment situation number at 8:30, should be a market mover.
More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff