EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for November, 2010

EMF Tentative / Official Forecast

The tentative (and official) EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December 3rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline into Tuesday PM / Wednesday AM area and then rise from there.  With spotty trading and missing large percentages of the normal data stream, it is difficult for the model to make total sense of the cycles since a large percentage of the time there is no data.  Reports following black Friday could have an impact on the markets as well, so use caution on that factor.

The holiday season is a special time for people all around the world.  A special time where we can reflect and count our blessings.

In this spirit, we are thankful and wish you the very best in this holiday and the coming new year.

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Here is CME Globex® Thanksgiving Holiday Schedule

Wednesday, Nov 24

1515 CT – Regular CME Globex close for trade date Wednesday, Nov 24 1530 CT – Regular CME Globex open for trade date Friday, Nov 26
Note: Day/Session orders entered after 1530 CT on Wednesday are for trade date

Friday, Nov 26 and will continue working until Friday’s close at 1215 CT

Thursday, Nov 25

1030 CT – CME Globex trading halt Order entry, modification and cancellation allowed 1700 CT – Halted products resume trading

Friday, Nov 26
1215 CT – Early CME Globex close for trade date Friday, Nov 26

Due to the short trading week, this posting is also the official forecast and we will not have a Sunday update.

Again, wishing you the very best,

EMF Staff

http://eminiforecaster.com

Sunday Forecast

Good evening traders, there are no changes from Thursday notes, we are
looking for market to climb up this week into holidays on light volume.

Please make sure that you do not try to daytrade our forecasts, this is a
weekly swing trading guide that should be incorporated into your existing
trading methodology.

Make trading a process not an event. Do not let one trade make or break
your account. Trade light until you become consistent, if you cant trade 2
contracts profitably you probably cant 10.

Listen to what the market is telling you and do not marry to a bias, be
flexible, if you see setups that tell you you should be long don't stay
bearish, you might be ok being in cash but don't fight the tape. Wait for a
perfect opportunity to pull the trigger, like in poker you have to play
most of the hands, in trading you can wait for ace ace combination and pull
the trigger then, doesn't mean you were right but it will give you an edge
over another impulsive trader who just cannot wait to give his money to the
markets, so much so that he "can't wait to trade tomorrow".

Just because the quotes are ticking and charts are moving does not mean
you have to trade! This is all a set up to get you to trade. If you miss a
set up don't regret, learn instead!

Have a great Thanksgiving!

- EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November 26th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week all week. There are only 3 trading days next week as it is a holiday week. Those three days (Monday Tuesday and Wednesday) should complete this current up cycle. Disregard Thursday and Friday’s Gline (Friday is supposed to close at 12:15 Central time).

Be cautious as trading volume may be thin in this holiday market and this could bring with it some volatility.  Often as we go into the holidays the winning side (bulls) may reward themselves by going on vacation while the losers (bears) will punish themselves by sticking around.  If this is correct, then there may be some potential for downside since there may be an absence of bulls present.

We have some gaps and lapses in both directions on our daily chart that tells us how questionable this market really is. This is especially true since the QE2 announcement by the fed. So use caution and do not over allocate in this uncertain environment.

We do not expect any changes to the forecast on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

http://eminiforecaster.com

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November 19th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.

We expect the market to rise next week all week.  This is a long cycle and may continue on into the Thanksgiving holiday.  Be cautious however as, and as we have mentioned on an ongoing basis, there are significant problems looming in the shadows.  However, as long as there is free money for rich wall street and the banks, why not have a party :-)  Just watch how carried away you get with the festivities.

As always, we suggest using prudent money managemnt- It looks like Ireland is asking the IMF for a bailout.  Things like this can become a catalyst for some more downside.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

http://eminiforecaster.com

Eminiforecaster Tentative

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November 19th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week all week.  This is a long cycle and may continue on into the Thanksgiving holiday.  Be cautious however as, and as we have mentioned on an ongoing basis, there are significant problems looming in the shadows.  However, as long as there is free money for rich wall street and the banks, why not have a party :-)  Just watch how carried away you get with the festivities.

It looks like we might see some volatility early in the day tomorrow, followed by (a possible recovery in the event of a downside gap) and then range trading.  There is a gap on the daily charts at around the 1197 area and the market is itching to get there, however, the bulls keep buying pressure up into the declines. As can be seen by consecutive up closes following down mornings in the last couple sessions.

We do not expect any changes to the forecast on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

http://eminiforecaster.com

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November
12th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
“Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline next week all week with some upside the
first couple of days to trade the longs in before the sell off.

The market is moving higher with our G-line forecast as was predicted and
is mainly due to FEDs EQ2 efforts.

We expect consolidation tomorrow, another peak at the high on Monday to
shake weak hands out and a pullback.

Tomorrow is Friday and we have Employment situation numbers out at 8:30 am.
More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff