EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for September, 2010

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October
8th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php  (click
“Next Week”)

We expect the market to rise next week all week.  It is likely a good part
of the upside will occur earlier in the week, however be sure to watch for
reports.

This week we followed the forecast fairly closely as predicted, however
the report this AM caused the market to cover almost the entire weeks range
in today’s price action.  As a result, a new intermediate term high
occurred.  Laster in the day we began to probe into the lows from earlier
in the week.  We will watch tomorrow to see if the end of the down cycle is
complete in order to determine if the forecast will change over the
weekend.

For tomorrow, we are seeing some selling earlier in the day with buying
into the mid day followed by mixed trading in the last hour or so.  1127.50
and 1147 are likely support and resistance areas.  It appears there will be
some more testing on the downside going into the weekend.

As always, manage risk prudently and attempt to sell near highs
(resistance) and buy near lows (support).

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October
1st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next
week all week.

Be cautious during this down cycle as the bulls appear to be in charge and
may vigorously defend declines (especially in the first couple days of the
week or so).   Declines that are precipitated by news may be more vigorous.
Basic key levels are 1145 and 1162 on the upside and 1118 and 1100 on the
downside.  As always, look to counter breakouts of these levels that occur
on low volume- especially on a closing basis.

The Federal Reserve meeting has thrown a bit of a bone into the trend we
expected for this week and has caused volatility to increase.  Though, as
we have seen, the market appears to be resilient to the down gaps like we
saw this morning.  The cycle does appear to be down going forward through
the end of the month, and starting on Monday.

In terms of the anticipated range from last week, we did manage to see the
key resistance level a couple times during the week making for some good
trading (or profit taking) opportunity there.   This morning we tested the
low for the week making this a strange week, with most of the range
occurring in overnight sessions and gaps etc.

As always, manage risk prudently, next week we might see more trending and
range expansion than this current week.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October 1st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next week all week.

Be cautious during this down cycle as the bulls appear to be in charge and may vigorously defend declines (especially in the first couple days of the week or so).   Declines that are precipitated by news may be more vigorous. Basic key levels are 1145 and 1162 on the upside and 1118 and 1100 on the downside.  As always, look to counter breakouts of these levels that occur on low volume- especially on a closing basis.

The Federal Reserve meeting has thrown a bit of a bone into the trend we expected for this week and has caused volatility to increase.  Though, as we have seen, the market appears to be resilient to the down gaps like we saw this morning.  The cycle does appear to be down going forward through the end of the month, and starting on Monday.

In terms of the anticipated range from last week, we did manage to see the key resistance level a couple times during the week making for some good trading (or profit taking) opportunity there.   This morning we tested the low for the week making this a strange week, with most of the range occurring in overnight sessions and gaps etc.

As always, manage risk prudently, next week we might see more trending and range expansion than this current week.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October
1st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click "next
week")

We expect the market to decline next week all week.

The Federal Reserve meeting has thrown a bit of a bone into the trend we
expected for this week and has caused volatility to increase.  Though, as
we have seen, the market appears to be resilient to the down gaps like we
saw this morning.  The cycle does appear to be down going forward through
the end of the month, and starting on Monday.

In terms of the anticipated range from last week, we did manage to see the
key resistance level a couple times during the week making for some good
trading (or profit taking) opportunity there.   This morning we tested the
low for the week making this a strange week, with most of the range
occurring in overnight sessions and gaps etc.

I do not expect there to be any change to the forecast, so it will remain
unchanged over the weekend.

For tomorrow, we expect trading to be mixed with some possible selling in
the afternoon.

As always, manage risk prudently, next week we might see more trending and
range expansion than this current week.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative / Official Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October 1st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next week”)

We expect the market to decline next week all week.

The Federal Reserve meeting has thrown a bit of a bone into the trend we expected for this week and has caused volatility to increase.  Though, as we have seen, the market appears to be resilient to the down gaps like we saw this morning.  The cycle does appear to be down going forward through the end of the month, and starting on Monday.

In terms of the anticipated range from last week, we did manage to see the key resistance level a couple times during the week making for some good trading (or profit taking) opportunity there.   This morning we tested the low for the week making this a strange week, with most of the range occurring in overnight sessions and gaps etc.

I do not expect there to be any change to the forecast, so it will remain unchanged over the weekend.

For tomorrow, we expect trading to be mixed with some possible selling in the afternoon.

As always, manage risk prudently, next week we might see more trending and range expansion than this current week.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September 24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise next week all week.  This will likely occur following some consolidation earlier in the week.

As previously mentioned, it is suspect that we are trading in such a tight range without much in the way of directionality.  Quiet periods are typically followed by volatility.  This period of the year is often the most volatile with the annual lows often coming in at or about October 17th or so.  This month, we are finding ourselves in the middle of the annual trading range. Out of the money call option premiums on the S&P are selling at very low prices. At the same time, In the money calls are selling at a premium to puts.  This says bets are on the  upside, which is bearish as the majority is usually wrong.  These are fairly bearish near to mid-term indications.  Another factor that looms in the shadows is the extreme absence of liquidity available to fuel a rally.  So, unless the government is stepping in to push things up, there is fairly strong probability of a downward bias in the weeks to come.

As a result of the above, though the cycle this week is up, we must be very cautious about managing our risk exposure on up-cycle weeks on the forecaster.

We expect therefore, that the market will continue in a sideways fashion largely in the coming week. If we break key areas of support and resistance on any volume and/or on a closing basis, then, a continuation of the breakout would be expected. Key areas are the 1122-1125 area to the upside and the 1100 area to the downside.  Beyond that, the 1140 area and 1080 levels are key.  These levels will also be posted on the forecaster on the horizontal tool function.

Manage risk prudently, sell near highs and buy near lows when at all possible, and keep exposure minimized.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
September 24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click "next
week")

We expect the market to rise next week all week.  This will likely occur
following some consolidation earlier in the week.

The bulls have continued to buy into lower prices at each attempt to sell
by the bears.  Though they have not been able to much make progress to the
upside, this has left us in a fairly tight trading range bound by the
1108-1122 area.  This tentative cycle being up, is concerning because we
would really have to break into multi month highs in order to go any
higher. As a result, be very cautious this coming week even though the
cycle is up. In other words, there is good potential for downside as there
are plenty of reasons we should not be at these levels.  One potential
reason we should not go higher is there is no liquidity to drive the
breakout higher.  There is a potential for the forecast to shift after
tomorrow, so it might change over the weekend.

For tomorrow, we see alternating buying and selling at hourly intervals
with most of the upside potential between 11:30 and 2:30 Eastern time.

Manage risk prudently, sell near highs and buy near lows when at all
possible, and keep exposure minimized.

More on Sunday,

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative / Official Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September 10th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next week”)

We expect the market to decline next week into Wednesday PM Thursday AM area and then rise from there.

We were testing the August lows going into the end of the month.  In the last few days we have seen a relief rally to near term resistance area of 1098.  Therefore, we are expecting the market to work the range between 1100 and 1040.

Tomorrow we see some selling early in the day, probably in the first hour or so followed by an up bias for a couple hours. From around 12:20 to 2:20 Eastern there is some potential for selling followed by some buying in the next hour (though this looks weak).  The last couple hours are likely down. Remember we are going into a holiday weekend with Monday being closed. Therefore, trading might be thin and a little less predictable on that account.

Have a great weekend and a great day off on Monday.

Because of the holiday, this forecast will also stand as the official forecast for next week and there will be no change to the G-line.

As always, manage your risk prudently.  Sell near highs and buy near lows when at all possible and keep exposure minimized.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff