EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for July, 2010

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August
6th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next
week”)

We expect the market to rise into Tuesday and then down from there.

We have failed to reach 100 day moving average of 1121 or the previous 3
highs for that matter, this suggests a downtrend.

Current forecast is turning out as expected.

GDP numbers are out tomorrow morning, should be a market mover, the
forecast suggests a gap down and a recovery by the end of the session, but
remember we are not daytrading this, we are swing trading the forecast with
trailing stops.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 30th is now posted.

There is a change to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next week.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

The cycle has been indeterminate over this last week as previously mentioned and this sometimes makes our cycle shift from up to down. In support of this, the market traded up on Friday on good breadth but with limited volume.  This suggests we will be doing some testing into last week’s range.

Key levels are as follows- The next major resistance to the upside is the 1127 area. There may also be resistance at the 1102 area.  To the downside we see 1060 and 1053 as key.

As always, try to manage risk prudently and wait for the big winners.

- EMF Team

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 30th is now posted.

We expect the market to rise next week.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next week”)

The markets have been multidirectional largely due to a variety of earnings, news of BP, Reform bills and negative comments by the Fed. Today the market also closed above a major trend-line, but did so on lower than average volume after having spent the afternoon in a consolidation. Therefore, testing into yesterdays range tomorrow is not unlikely.

Resistance for tomorrow is the 1100 area and support is at the 1053 area.

We are still in a down cycle mode and will expect the market to test higher next week, volatility is contracting, which also supports this view, with an average daily range of about 17 S&P points.

As always, try to manage risk prudently and wait for the big winners.

More on Sunday

- EMF Team

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 23rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. As mentioned, the down cycle would likely begin on Friday.  We expect the down cycle to continue, but do not be surprised if we get some counter trend moves to the down cycle. Friday had good volume which suggests a continuance, but due to the rate at which the move occurred, if you are not already in, we suggest selling rallies.

For next week, key levels are 1080 and 1090 to the upside and 1012 and 1025 to the downside.

As always, we try to manage risk prudently and wait for the big winners.

- EMF Team

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July
23rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click "next
week")

Current forecast is again looking par and on track. We expect the market
to decline next week.  Be advised this decline could start as early as
tomorrow.  There is some positive news being released that can pull the
market in either direction.  There is also potential for wall street
reforms being passed that could impact the markets.  As a result, we advise
being on top of news releases that could impact your positions.

As previously mentioned, we were looking for at least 1080, and we got
that- here we are waiting for the topping formation to give way before
entering short.

Currently, on the volatility front, we see the most potential for
volatility next Friday the 23rd with varied amounts earlier in the week.
So, watch for potential volatility expansion going forward.

For tomorrow, key levels are 1100 to the upside and 1076.25 and 1066.50 to
the downside.

As always, we try to manage risk prudently and wait for the big winners.

- EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 16th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to test
resistance of 1080 and then watch value to accumulate above or below that
level. The path of least resistance for the market right now is upwards.

Thursday is an important news even day with 4 reports coming out before
the market opens, EMF program suggests that we will rise in anticipation of
the news; should be volatile;

Wishing you the very best, please exercise patience and do follow your
rules!

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July
16th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click
“next
week”)

Current forecast is looking par and on track.

Last week we talked about watching the 1030 level and seeing where the
value would form above for long and below for short, we formed a clear
value above 1030 on Tuesday and entered long on Wednesday following an up
forecast.

Right now we are trailing our stops and are looking for first support to
come in at 1080.

Next week we are looking at mostly up week with many important news
reports out on Thursday, the market can take heat there especially if we
had already reached 1080 level and did not established value above it
prior
to Thursday.

Always wait for a perfect opportunity to trade and then commit to it.

- EMF Team

Eminiforecaster Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 9th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise all week.  This cycle should last about a week.

The market should find support at the 1006 to 1000 level.  To the upside, a gap will be closed at 1062.75. If buyers come in early in the week then look for this level. If the 1000 level is violated, expect a continuation to the downside until mid to late week.

It is suggested entries are made after some confirmation- the downtrend has been strong, so use caution.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 9th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next
week”)

We are looking for a post holiday bounce next week and then possibly lower
after next week for most of the summer. Double-dip recession is the word on
the street and the market is sure looking that way.

Tomorrow are employment numbers and factory orders news but the volatility
may be offset by pre-holiday trading session. We expect a flat to down
day.

Notice how 1030 was a critical support level and once broken became
resistance, so this level is important to watch in the coming days and see
if we form value area below or above it. This will also give you an
indication of the longer term market direction.

Wait for the right opportunity to trade and then commit to it.

- EMF Team