EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for June, 2010

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 2nd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise all week.  This cycle should last about a week.

The market failed to hold at the 1101 area last week as mentioned and dropped from there.  As a result, we will likely see the market go the 1061 area (this prediction was off by a couple points intraday on Friday.

With the strong down bias, we are also trending; each day being down.  This is consistent with the seasonal that often occurs starting about this time of year. As previously mentioned, this occurs at a statistically significant level between now and the end of July.

Next week on the volatility front, we see Monday and Wednesday are likely the highest volatility days.

The $VIX index has run back up to the 30% level with the downside.  This corresponds to daily ranges of around 20 S&P points-  Look for retracements or consolidations following runs of this magnitude.

Friday’s low of 1061 to 1062.75 should hold as support. A break of this level on volume or on a closing basis would indicate a continuance of the bear trend. Keep in mind there are a lot of things looming that could precipitate a decline.  At some point we will likely see a sudden rise in interest rates that will cause much havoc.  For now key levels are at 1061 and 1037.  To the upside we are seeing the 1103 area.  1135 is key after that.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 2nd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next week”)

We expect the market to rise all week.  This cycle should last about a week.

The market failed to hold at the 1101 area as mentioned and dropped.  As a result, we will likely see the market go the 1061 area.

With the strong down bias, we are also trending; each day being down.  This is consistent with the seasonal that often occurs starting about this time of year. As previously mentioned, this occurs at a statistically significant level between now and the end of July.

Our method we announced of selling into up closes will likely resume selling closes in the top 50% of the range.

Next week on the volatility front, we see Monday and Wednesday are likely the highest volatility days.

The $VIX index has run back up to the 30% level with the downside.  This corresponds to daily ranges of around 20 S&P points-  Look for retracements or consolidations following runs of this magnitude.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 25th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise all week.
This cycle should last about a week.

Beware however of the following:  We have been consolidating for three days in the range between (approx) 1117 and 1101.  If we are unable to break above this area with volume and/or on a closing basis, the cycle will likely revert to down.  If this is the case, large downside would not be expected fighting against the up cycle and consolidation would be more likely.  Use caution.

Key levels for this week then are 1117-1122 followed by the 1135-1143 area on the upside.  To the downside, we are looking at the 1106-1101 area followed by 1084 to the downside.

We have been doing some work that predicts the next day’s direction.
For this coming week, we see the changes as follows: Tuesday is opposite Monday’s directional bias on a closing basis, Wednesday is opposite Tuesday, Thursday is opposite Wednesday, and Friday is opposite Thursday.  So it shows to be up, down, up, down etc. all week. This is not too dis-similar to our forecast for the coming week.

The bulls have bucked this downtrend all week, with the market oscillating just above our upper key level for last week. Expect that the market may move higher again tomorrow.

Our method we announced last week of selling into up closes has a trend filter built into it and it has shut down the shorts for the time being. We will keep you posted if it starts shorting up-closes again.

Next week on the volatility front, we see Wednesday as the highest volatility day with Monday and Friday coming in as relatively equal seconds.

Next week kicks off the beginning of the new Summer season.  During this period, the stock market has historically started its down seasonal for the year.  The Cycle Vision program shows the market down historically from June 2nd through about July 28th (at a statistically significant level) but not by a large margin. This may forebode overall choppy markets during this period.

The $VIX index has dropped down to the 25% area over the last week (from about 30%) this is bullish and corresponds to a daily range of about 17.5 S&P points.

As always, be cautious because economic problems loom in the shadows. This should keep volatility at higher levels overall in the coming months.

Speaking of volatility, as mentioned previously, the Gforce trading programs have done quite well historically in volatile markets and have done quite well in the current month.  We did have a couple consecutive losers earlier in the week which is often a very good time to get started. Ask us which of the Gforce programs are likely to perform the best in these market conditions.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss trading futures.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 25th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next
week”)

We expect the market to rise all week.  This cycle should last about a week.

We have been doing some work that predicts the next day’s direction.
For this coming week, we see the changes as follows: Tuesday is opposite Monday’s directional bias on a closing basis, Wednesday is opposite Tuesday, Thursday is opposite Wednesday, and Friday is opposite Thursday.  So it shows to be up, down, up, down etc. all week. This is not too dis-similar to our forecast for the coming week.

The bulls have bucked this downtrend all week, with the market oscillating just above our upper key level for last week. Expect that the market may move higher again tomorrow.

Our method we announced last week of selling into up closes has a trend filter built into it and it has shut down the shorts for the time being. We will keep you posted if it starts shorting up-closes again.

Next week on the volatility front, we see Wednesday as the highest volatility day with Monday and Friday coming in as relatively equal seconds.

Next week kicks off the beginning of the new Summer season.  During this period, the stock market has historically started its down seasonal for the year.  The Cycle Vision program shows the market down historically from June 2nd through about July 28th (at a statistically significant level) but not by a large margin. This may forebode overall choppy markets during this period.

The $VIX index has dropped down to the 25% area over the last week (from about 30%) this is bullish and corresponds to a daily range of about 17.5 S&P points.

As always, be cautious because economic problems loom in the shadows. This should keep volatility at higher levels overall in the coming months.

Speaking of volatility, as mentioned previously, the Gforce trading programs have done quite well historically in volatile markets and have done quite well in the current month.  We did have a couple consecutive losers earlier in the week which is often a very good time to get started. Ask us which of the Gforce programs are likely to perform the best in these market conditions.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss trading futures.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 18th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline all week. This cycle should last about a week. We saw a lot of exuberance today but expect the market will be down overall tomorrow. This is about an 80% probability.

We suggest looking for rallies to sell into. As mentioned last week, the simple strategy of selling days that close in the upper part of their range has been an excellent strategy and resulted in about $7,000 in profits over the last month or so and about $1700 so far this month (per Emini contract).
We have also been doing some work that predicts the next day’s direction. I will try this here on an experimental basis to see if you like it.

As mentioned above, this approach has about an 80% accuracy rating. For next week the bias is as follows: Tuesday should follow the bias of Monday’s price action. Wednesday is a tough call (no bias). Friday should be opposite to Thursday’s price action. This applies on a close to close basis. Friday is showing the highest potential for volatility. The other days are balanced in this respect. This may indicate a reduction in volatility for next week from the current levels.

The $VIX index is at about 30% which translates to a daily range of about 21 points on average. As mentioned previously, economic problems on the horizon increase the chances of negative news having impact in this environment.
Last week I mentioned our Gforce Trading program. The performance on this program continues to be stellar racking up about $5600 since our last Thursday’s update per Emini contract. It might be worth looking into. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Key areas to look for this week are 1100 to the upside.  This is likely a magnet price area as we closed inside the gap/lapse of Friday.  To the downside we are seeing the 1067.50 and the 1050 areas as likely lows.

There is risk of loss trading futures.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Gina

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June
18th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next
week”)

We expect the market to decline all week. This cycle should last about a
week. We saw a lot of exuberance today but expect the market will be down
overall tomorrow. This is about an 80% probability.

We suggest looking for rallies to sell into. As mentioned last week, the
simple strategy of selling days that close in the upper part of their range
has been an excellent strategy and resulted in about $7,000 in profits over
the last month or so and about $1700 so far this month (per Emini
contract). We have also been doing some work that predicts the next day’s
direction. I will try this here on an experimental basis to see if you like
it.

As mentioned above, this approach has about an 80% accuracy rating. For
next week the bias is as follows: Tuesday should follow the bias of
Monday’s price action. Wednesday is a tough call (no bias). Friday should
be opposite to Thursday’s price action. This applies on a close to close
basis. Friday is showing the highest potential for volatility. The other
days are balanced in this respect. This may indicate a reduction in
volatility for next week from the current levels.

The $VIX index is at about 30% which translates to a daily range of about
21 points on average. As mentioned previously, economic problems on the
horizon increase the chances of negative news having impact in this
environment. Last week I mentioned our Gforce Trading program. The
performance on this program continues to be stellar racking up about $5600
since our last Thursday’s update per Emini contract. It might be worth
looking into. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future
results.

There is risk of loss trading futures. More on Sunday. Wishing you the
very best,

Rob, Vadim & Gina

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 11th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next
week”)

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise into the Tuesday PM Wednesday AM area. We are on a long cycle so this trend continues from early this week and goes into next week. Continue to be cautious of the downside as many economic problems loom in the shadows.  Therefore, as the cycle turns to the downside midweek, we will anticipate stronger downside moves.

We are seeing the most potential for volatility on Tuesday and Thursday so be cautious of expanding ranges around the turning points. The $VIX index hovers at about 30%. This corresponds to daily ranges of just over 20 S&P points.

A good recent strategy is selling closes on days where the close is in the upper part of the daily range during downtrends.

For the coming week, we see key areas at around the 1080 to 1100 area as resistance and the 1038 and 1018 area as support.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff
P.S.  We urge you to also take a look at our www.GforceTraders.com autotrading programs.  These auto trade programs have had excellent performance.  For example, the G2 program has nearly doubled on our lead account (real $$$ results) since we began last October.

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 11th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next
week”)

We expect the market to rise into the Tuesday PM Wednesday AM area. We are on a long cycle so this trend continues from early this week and goes into next week. Continue to be cautious of the downside as many economic problems loom in the shadows.  Therefore, as the cycle turns to the downside midweek, we will anticipate stronger downside moves.

We are seeing the most potential for volatility on Tuesday and Thursday so be cautious of expanding ranges around the turning points.
The $VIX index hovers at about 30%. This corresponds to daily ranges of just over 20 S&P points.

A good recent strategy is selling closes on days where the close is in the upper part of the daily range during downtrends.

For tomorrow we are seeing key areas at around the 1110 to 1118 area as resistance and the 1090 area as support.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff