EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for May, 2010

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 4th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next week”)

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise for the week. This is a long cycle so it will continue into the following week.  The bulls should be able to get more control than in the past several weeks, but beware of the bears at least trying to give a good fight.

It is looking like we will have better potential for volatility on the 1st and the 3rd of June (Tuesday and Thursday).  Volatility overall should remain fairly high with intraday ranges consistent with the $VIX index which is now hovering at about 35% (a substantial drop from last week).  This corresponds to about 21 point ranges intraday.

We saw some bottoming on high volume yesterday, but the market was not able to sustain that rallies highs and sold off this afternoon.  We are going into a holiday on Monday (please remember) and it is not likely people will want to carry longs into the weekend unless we get some strong upside. Watch for some potentially low volume on Friday as well as people launch their summers this weekend.

For the coming week, we are seeing key areas at around 1103 and 1123 to the upside and 1082 and 1060 to the downside.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 4th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next week”)

We expect the market to rise for the week. This is a long cycle so it will continue into the following week.  The bulls should be able to get more control than in the past several weeks, but beware of the bears at least trying to give a good fight.

It is looking like we will have better potential for volatility on the 1st and the 3rd of June (Tuesday and Thursday).  Volatility overall should remain fairly high with intraday ranges consistent with the $VIX index which is now hovering at about 35% (a substantial drop from last week).  This corresponds to about 21 point ranges intraday.

We saw some bottoming on high volume yesterday, but the market was not able to sustain that rallies highs and sold off this afternoon.  We are going into a holiday on Monday (please remember) and it is not likely people will want to carry longs into the weekend unless we get some strong upside. Watch for some potentially low volume on Friday as well as people launch their summers this weekend.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the holiday.  I do not foresee any changes to the forecast this weekend, so will simply update the key levels at on Sunday.  For tomorrow we are seeing key areas at around 1122 and 1140 to the upside and 1080 and 1060 to the downside.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 28th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline for
the week.

The market made a strong rally attempt on Friday, so expect the bulls to try
to defend key levels (below).

As the market is now biased to the short side, we should expect the declines
to be fairly healthy this week.  Of course, we have experienced the same
this wee on the forecasted down days from the Gline, but the market did not
turn this afternoon as the forecast predicted, rather it ended in a sell-off
as traders do not want to close the day long and sold off.  There are
numerous issues on the financial horizon that are of concern.  And we may
expect further declines and volatility. Another 40 points down is not
unlikely.

We are seeing potential for high volatility on Tuesday and Thursday but
fairly small shifts in time shift the pattern into Monday. So, look for
Monday as a potential high volatility day- If we don’t see it, look for
Tuesday to have higher ranges.

Many 5 minute bars intraday are in excess of 5 points making trading very
difficult.  Reducing allocations to account for the increased leverage
created in the volatility is highly recommended.  The $VIX index has risen
to around 40%.  This means the market expects 40% moves in a year in the S&P
index.

Ranges are more difficult to predict in wild markets but it is likely we
might see Key areas at around 1050 and 1036 to the downside in the near
term. Resistance is at around 1100-1110.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 28th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next week”)

We expect the market to decline for the week.

As the market is now biased to the short side, we should expect the declines to be fairly healthy this week.  Of course, we have experienced the same this wee on the forecasted down days from the Gline, but the market did not turn this afternoon as the forecast predicted, rather it ended in a sell-off as traders do not want to close the day long and sold off.  There are numerous issues on the financial horizon that are of concern.  And we may expect further declines and volatility. Another 40 points down is not unlikely.

We are seeing potential for high volatility on Tuesday and Thursday but fairly small shifts in time shift the pattern into Monday. So, look for Monday as a potential high volatility day- If we don’t see it, look for Tuesday to have higher ranges.

Many 5 minute bars intraday are in excess of 5 points making trading very difficult.  Reducing allocations to account for the increased leverage created in the volatility is highly recommended.  The $VIX index has risen to around 46%.  This means the market expects 46% moves in a year in the S&P index.

Ranges are more difficult to predict in wild markets but it is likely we might see Key areas at around 1036 to the downside in the near term. Resistance is at around 1100.

More on Sunday-

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 21st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise all week.

Tuesday and Thursday are showing the highest potential for volatility.  The ranges continue to be large and the VIX index is at about 26%.  This suggests continued larger ranges going forward.  As a result, be very cautious with capital exposure.

Key areas for the week are remainder of the week are support at  1125 and resistance at the 1155 and 1170 areas.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 21st is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next
week”)

We expect the market to rise all week.

Tuesday and Thursday are showing the highest potential for volatility.  The ranges continue to be large and the VIX index is at about 26%.  This suggests continued larger ranges going forward.  As a result, be very cautious with capital exposure.

Key areas for the remainder of the week are resistance at 1169 and support in the 1150 area.

More on Sunday-

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 14th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline all week.

Be cautious as the volatility rises with position sizing.  We also urge caution as the government is likely taking all the measures they can to prevent declines in the market that could adversely impact the economy. Therefore, if this theory is correct, up moves could be sudden and could be done during periods when liquidity is less than normal ie. in the mid day session and after hours in Globex etc.

We see Wednesday the 12th and Friday the 14th as the higher potential for volatility days, though Monday and Tuesday are also higher than normal.

For the coming week we see 1130-1140 as upside resistance and to the downside we see 1057 and 1080 as key support areas.  With the expanded ranges and breakout, it is more difficult to anticipate ranges. As stated above, we see the early part of the week as potentially more volatile.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 14th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next week”)

We expect the market to decline all week.

We are seeing increased volatility as predicted and the cycle last week did fail as we suggested it might. Be sure to use caution in position sizing in this environment.

We see Wednesday the 12th and Friday the 14th as the higher potential for volatility days, though Monday and Tuesday are also higher than normal.  So, as mentioned again, be cautious on the risk exposure.

More on Sunday-

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 7th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to rise all week.

We are seeing increased volatility and this suggests the down cycles may become larger as we move forward. After seeing Friday’s selloff, we feel subscribers should use caution in this up forecast as the bears may have taken control more than was the case during the tentative forecast posting.
As a result, we do not expect the market will be able to break previous highs this week.  The daily ranges have increased and the median values are below average indicating a skew in the distribution of ranges. This is likely bearish. When combined with the fact we have seen considerably higher downside volume in recent down sessions, it stands to reason we should be skeptical the bull is still in place.

This coming week we are seeing potential for high volatility on Tuesday May 4th. Friday May 7th is also worthy of mention as a potential higher volatility day.

Support and resistance for the coming week are stand at 1153 and 1160 to the downside and 1210 and 1220 to the upside.

Use caution as we potentially change trend.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff