EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for February, 2010

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March 5th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise all
week.

The market is closing near recent highs. Thus there may be some resistance
to further upside. The bulls have maintained control by buying vigorously
into  eclines. Therefore, watch for some volatility.  The high for the year
is around the 1147 area. A break through the 1110 area with volume or on a
closing basis  could lead to a trend to test the high. As previously
mentioned, the highest volatility this week is likely on Tuesday &
Thursday-Friday with Monday and Wednesday likely quieter.

For next week resistance is at 1110 and 1147. To the downside, the 1084
and 1172 areas are key.

We have made some recent posts on the EMF blog about the Cycle-Vision
(CV)
program here: http://eminiforecaster.com/blog/855.php
And here: http://eminiforecaster.com/blog/837.php

Cycle Vision is capable of extremely advanced cycle analysis.  One way to
use is it to decide what positions NOT to take (ie. don't take positions
against it), and the other is to use it to find trades that you will take.
Put another way, for  example, if CV has a trade going long on a certain
commodity or stock, you would probably be better off not going short. This
is great, because it can tell you where not to put your money.  If you time
a CV trade in a stock, and you manage to time it in the same direction as
the overall market, large gains can often be made in short intervals.

As always, manage risk prudently.

Wishing you the best,

EMF Team

We have generated some stock trades for Monday from the CV program.

I started with a list of stocks that were trending upwards and have positive earnings growth. With the CV program, we can analyze the stocks in multiple time dimensions simultaneously. This is very powerful. I analyzed a list of stocks in 65 different time dimensions and found there were no shorts on any of them for these stocks in any of the 65 time dimensions over the length of the trade.

I will provide you with two examples below, and on one of these there are two trades; one shorter term and designed to maximize daily return and the other to maximize the overall return.

Symbol=GMCR
Buy 3/1 open
Sell 3/17
Median Return = 10%
Win%=90

Symbol=GMCR
Buy 3/1 open
Sell 5/5
Median Return = 23%
Win%=100%

Symbol=SBAC
Buy 3/1 open
Sell 3/16
Median Return = 10%
Win%=100

Our overall market analysis for CV sees a lot of stock market buying coming in around 3/13. Therefore, shorter term trades may be more prudent.

Max adverse excursions can be large in some cases, so options (preferably in-the-money) can be used.

Past performance on these trades is not necessarily indicative of future performance for that same trade. Use prudence trading.

Cycle-Vision Commodities Trades!

Update: C-V stock trades

We are happy to share seasonal trades with you from the project we have been working on for the last 17 months.

The code name is Cycle-Vision and it is a tool to identify highly reliable trades in ANY market including stocks, futures and forex.

Right now we would like to share with you some commodities trades that Cycle-Vision has produced for us.

We have been trading some of the trade recommendations from Cycle-Vision and have been making consistent profits with what is probably more important very reliable high percentage trades.

Here is a list of current or coming up trades for commodities that we have put together for you -

Windows users – download spreadsheet

Mac users – download numbers

Let us know what you think.

More on this topic –

The Best Choice in Seasonal and Cycles Trading Software

Stock Market Cycles – The Key to Profits

- Rob & Vadim
———–

Sunday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending March
5th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click "next
week")

We expect the market to rise all week.

There is a good potential that next week we will see the most volatility
on Tuesday & Thursday-Friday with Monday and Wednesday likely quieter.

Today we made the lowest low of 7 days and came back to finish higher. We
also opened at the low and closed at the highs. This is also bullish. Thus,
this may be an early turn in our current down forecast.

Today was expected as a high volatility day and tomorrow will likely be
quieter, as previously forecasted.

We are seeing strength with the bulls. This is supported by the FED taking
cautious action to not stir things up. At the same time our forecast is
down. This makes for the kind of days like we had today, so be cautious
going forward.  Our longer cycles suggest the market is in a seasonal
downtrend until about March  3th or so.  After this time, the market will
likely become more bullish as long as  he economic outlook stays unchanged,
and this will be less volatile.

For tomorrow the remainder of the week is resistance is at 1105 to 1110.
To the downside, the 1190 area is key.

As always, manage risk prudently.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the best,

EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February
26th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline all
week.

The bulls have control as we have continued past upper key levels from
last week, but the forecast is still down for the week.  It is likely the
bulls will resist and buy into sell-offs this week. However, we have seen 6
consecutive up days  n the ES contract and expect some profit taking is in
line with the forecast.

Contrary to what we stated on Thursday, at this time, we are now seeing
Tuesday and Thursday as the most volatile days.

Key levels for next week are 1120 and 1140 to the upside and the 1093 and
1075 areas to the downside.

Wishing you the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February
26th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click "next
week")

We expect the market to decline all week.

We are not seeing any days next week that come up as particularly volatile
at this time.

We are at the upper part of an intermediate term range that is bound by
the 1101.50 area. This suggests some selling may be in store, though the
market was fairly lackluster today in response to hitting that high area.

For the remainder of the week we see the market likely to offer key
support and resistance at the 1093 and 1102 areas.

Please note that today after the market closed the FED raised its interest
rates to .75 so we expect Friday to be a volatile day.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 19th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to rise all week.

There is a good potential that next week we will see the most volatility on Friday the 19th.  The 15th and 17th are showing to likely be the least volatile days.

In the last few minutes of Friday’s price action, we closed above the 1077 area.  Because this happened with the NYSE and Nasdaq closed, we will keep an eye on the price action going into Tuesday.  Monday is a holiday and is on shortened hours.  This interruption can make the market a bit more difficult to interpret, so be cautious.

We are seeing 1095 and 1100 as key on the upside.  To the downside, 1060 and
1054 are key.

Wishing you the best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February
19th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click "next
week")

We expect the market to rise all week.

There is a good potential that next week we will see the most volatility
on Friday the 19th.  The 15th and 17th are showing to likely be the least
volatile days.

Following last week's testing of the lows for the year, we are seeing
renewed  strength with the bulls.  This was evidenced today.  The 1077 area
is resistance to further upside, so going through this with volume will be
bullish. For tomorrow  hen, we would expect to see some downside, as we are
at the top of this range. If we do go through it, 1091 to 1095 is a likely
magnet area to go to.

For the downside, somewhere between 1060 and 1065 is likely support.

As always, manage risk prudently.

Please note that Monday is a holiday.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the best,

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February
12th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to rise into
the
Monday Close Tuesday open area and then decline from there.

There is a good potential that next week we will see the most volatility
on
Thursday the 11th.  There is some potential for Tuesday being a range day
as
well but with smaller strength than Thursday.

We tested the lows again for the year Friday and made a strong recover
going
into the weekend. Volatiltiy remains high as previously predicted.

The dominate trend is down and we should, as previously mentioned,
anticipate smaller upside and stronger downside action moving
forward.

For next week, key levels are 1080 and 1100 to the upside. To the
downside
we are seeing the 1021-1011 areas as key.

Manage your risk tightly as the ranges are expanding.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending February 12th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click “next week”)

We expect the market to rise into the Monday Close Tuesday open area and then decline from there.

There is a good potential that next week we will see the most volatility on Thursday the 11th.  There is some potential for Tuesday being a range day as well but with smaller strength than Thursday.

We tested the lows for the year today making our forecast wrong after testing the anticipated high of 1100 earlier in the week. We are playing with lows going back into last October and early November. Ranges were quite large at this time. The dominate trend is down and we should, as previously mentioned, anticipate smaller upside and stronger downside action moving forward.

For the remainder of the week, key levels are 1070 and 1080 to the upside. To the downside we are seeing the 1055-1060 areas as key.

Manage your risk tightly as the ranges are expanding.

More on Sunday

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff