EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for November, 2009

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending December 4th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php.

We expect the market to rise into Friday December 4th AM area and then decline from there.

We had a substantial range expansion over the holiday due to some news of loan defaults and a thin market.  As a result, we have a gap above the range from Friday’s half day.  This gap (or lapse) on our chart starts at the 1098 are and runs up into the 1108 area.  There are so many gaps/lapses on our 10 min chart from the last couple weeks, it suggests a lot of uncertainty is out there. Don’t be surprised if we remain choppy.  Also, there are typically initial reports of retail sales from ‘Black Friday’ that the market usually looks to in this season.  Beware of reports that can impact the market negatively.

The current range we are working in is from 1098 on the upside to 1078 on the downside.  Beneath the 1078 area we have another gap from November 10th. This gap is complete at the 1067 area. Therefore, iF we see a break on volume or on the close below the 1078 area then the 1065 area will likely become a magnet price.  If we get to the 1098 area and blast through it on either a closing basis or on volume, then 1110 will become a magnet price.  We do not expect the market being able to penetrate 1112 so this is a good low risk shorting area.

Be cautious of price action around all the gaps / lapses and, as always, manage risk as a top priority.

Wishing you the very best in this holiday season,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November
27th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php.

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to continue its
decline into the Tuesday AM (November 24th) area and to rise from there.

We have a holiday week ahead of us and it is often the case that we get
rallying moves during these periods because either the bulls or bears leave
to go have to fun.  This relinquishes control to the other side, which ever
that may be.  Be  ware that the markets may be thin and prone to swings.
It is hard to say who might be giving up or taking control in such a case
as the recent strength of the bears.  Therefore, use caution.

Friday was surprisingly narrow ranged and fairly low in volume.  IF we see
a break on volume or on the close below the 1080 area then the 1065-1070
area will likely become a magnet price.  If we get to the 1100 area (on the
same conditions) then 1110 will become a magnet price.  Therefore, our key
levels have not changed and stand at 1100 and 1110 to the upside.  To the
downside, we expect 1082 and 1065-1070.

As always, manage risk as a top priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November 27th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php. (click Next Week)

We expect the market to continue its decline into the Tuesday AM (November 24th) area and to rise from there.

We have seen an expansion in the range in the last couple days, however the VIX remains low and we saw a new high for the year this last week.  Gold has gone to new highs and the dollar has continued to decline.  You would think at some point the bears would get control of this, but the bull unrelentingly continue to buy sell offs.  Those trading on a longer time frame who believed the market should not be rallying (and rightfully so), have been punished for many months.  I am glad we trade on a time frame tight enough to avoid such things.

We did manage to get a gap closed on the 10 minute chart from the 16th.
There is another gap waiting to be filled at the 1065-1070 level. We are not close enough for me to be willing to consider that a magnet price just yet, but it is an area on your chart to be aware of.  There is potential to get there however, with two trading days remaining in this cycle.

We also left another (down) gap on our chart this AM at the 1102-1108 area.
This should also be in your awareness.  So the range in the next couple days could be defined by those areas (1070-1102). Therefore, Key levels for the rest of the week are the 1070 area to the downside. To the upside we are seeing the 1002 area.

As always, manage risk as a top priority.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November
27th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php. (click Next
Week)

We expect the market to continue its decline into the Tuesday AM (November
24th) area and to rise from there.

We have seen an expansion in the range in the last couple days, however
the VIX remains low and we saw a new high for the year this last week.
Gold has gone to new highs and the dollar has continued to decline.  You
would think at some point the bears would get control of this, but the bull
unrelentingly continue to buy sell offs.  Those trading on a longer time
frame who believed the market  hould not be rallying (and rightfully so),
have been punished for many months.  I  m glad we trade on a time frame
tight enough to avoid such things.

We did manage to get a gap closed on the 10 minute chart from the 16th.
There is another gap waiting to be filled at the 1065-1070 level. We are
not close  nough for me to be willing to consider that a magnet price just
yet, but it is an area on your chart to be aware of.  There is potential to
get there however, with  wo trading days remaining in this cycle.

We also left another (down) gap on our chart this AM at the 1102-1108
area. This should also be in your awareness.  So the range in the next
couple days could be defined by those areas (1070-1102). Therefore, Key
levels for the rest of the week are the 1070 area to the downside. To the
upside we are seeing the 1002 area.

As always, manage risk as a top priority.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November 20th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php.

There are no changes to the forecast. We are currently seeing the market up into the November 17th-19th area after which we see a decline.

We have two cycles with topping formations.  One on the 17th and the other on the 19th.  Typically these patterns form near the open of the day, so we could see the topping in the zone between the 17th open (Tuesday AM) and the 19th open (Thursday AM) area.

Key levels for the coming week are the 1103 and 1117 areas to the upside. To the downside we are seeing the 1070 and 1060 areas.

As always, we suggest you to manage your risk as a top priority as we seem to be changing our overall market bias at this time from bullish to bearish.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November 20th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php. (click Next Week)

We are currently seeing the market up into the November 17th-19th area after which we see a decline.

It looks like the market might have gotten a bit ahead of itself on Monday so we are seeing some correction here before continuing higher into mid next week.  We have two cycles with topping.  One on the 17th and the other on the 19th.  Typically these patterns form near the open of the day.  The market is suggesting it wants to go lower as was displayed today, so we would expect the upside to not be of too large a magnitude before the next decline sets in and would not be surprised if the anticipated downside cycle comes a bit early.

The VIX is hovering in the 24% area and has come off some recent lows.  We have been seeing an 11 trading day cycle up and 11 day down for several weeks now. We may also be seeing a set up for the 1165-70 (gap) area as a magnet price after having broke support today.

Key levels for the rest of the week are the 1065-1070 area to the downside. To the upside we are seeing the 1094 area.

As always, we suggest you to manage your risk as a top priority as we seem to be changing our overall market bias at this time from bullish to bearish.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November
13th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php.

There are no changes to the forecast from Thursday. We expect the market
to go down into Tuesday and then up for the rest of the week.

Everything from the Thursday update is still in effect.

Key levels for the coming week are 1042 and 1022  to the downside. To the
upside 1070 is key and then 1085.

As always, we suggest you to manage your risk as a top priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The EMF tentative forecast for the trading week ending November 13 is now
posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

The market is picking up volatility and is trending up more than our
program
is expecting. Under these circumstances, trading remains difficult.
Controlling leverage is the key here.

We currently see the market down into Tuesday and then up from there
once again. Considering the market is already up, entering new
longs at higher levels bears increased risk. Keep this in mind. Waiting
for a nice pullback into Tuesday before buying again is advisable.

Key levels to take note of are currently 1042 and 1022  to the downside.
To the upside 1070 is key and then 1085.

The Fed meeting this week did not help our current forecast that looked
like it was going to pan out nicely.

We would also like to welcome new members to the site!

We wish you the very best in your Trading,

Rob, Vadim and the EMF Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November 6th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php.

There are no changes to the forecast. We are currently seeing the market up into the Tuesday close / Wednesday open area after which expect a decline.

The market still remains increasingly volatile and the VIX increased from 25% to 30% since Thursday. We are seeing strong moves in both directions.  Typically, when this has occurred in the past, it proceeds a down market, so be cautious; the bulls and bears are in a war.

Key levels for the coming week are the 1050-1060 area to the upside. To the downside we are seeing the 1015 and 1004 areas.

As always, we suggest you to manage your risk as a top priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff