EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for October, 2009

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending November 6th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php. (click Next Week)

We are currently seeing the market up into the November 4th area after which we see a decline.

The market remains increasingly volatile.  We have been seeing some downside followed by aggressive up moves as in yesterday and today.  There were a couple good reports pushing the market higher today, but we do expect the bearish bias to continue for a while so recommend conserving capital on the long trades and being a bit more liberal on the shorts.

The VIX is hovering in the 25% area and has come off some lows. Puts and calls values equal distant from the current level are hovering in a ratio of around 0.9 which is fairly bearish even on a day like today.  We do expect more upside per the forecast but do not expect that the recent highs (around the 1100 area) should be violated by any margin.  In fact, we have had key levels in the 1100-1107 area on the upside for weeks.  We are currently around 40 points from that area, so have a bit of room to move, but do not expect it to be aggressive on the upside.  Seeing aggressive upside would prove this theory wrong, but since the media is pushing the idea that the recession is over, it should open some potential for them to be wrong.  Be cautious as the ranges expand.

Key levels for the rest of the week are the 1070-1076 area to the upside. To the downside we are seeing the 1050 and 1038 areas.

As always, we suggest you to manage your risk as a top priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October 30th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php.

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect to see a low in the Monday PM Tuesday AM area and then rise from there.

Our cycles appear to be back on track after being off a bit more than normal in the last few weeks. We are seeing a battle going on between the bears and bulls.  It would make some sense to see some downside in the weeks to come.  We will see however as the bulls have been so relentless in recent weeks.  Therefore we look to a buy in the Monday afternoon area; a cycle that is currently expected to continue into the November 4th area.

Key levels for the coming week are 1000 to 1107 areas to the upside. To the downside we are seeing the 1064 and 1054 areas.

As always, we suggest you to manage your risk as a top priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October 30th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php. (Click next week)

We expect to see a low in the Monday PM Tuesday AM area and then rise from there.

This market continues to be very resilient.  Yesterday we had a strong sell-off which was followed by an equally strong rally today, leaving a V on an intraday chart.  The night session also continues to show strength.  Our forecast still suggests we have some downside into Monday PM however, so we will stick with that.  I know quite a few good money managers who I am in contact with and guys who are very good have been off lately due to the relentless pursuit of the bulls to push higher in the face of fairly negative circumstances.  The key levels of 1100-1107 on the upside are still in effect so look for more selling in that area. Today’s low of 1070 was also a key area from previous reports as this closed a significant gap on the intraday chart.  We expect 1070 to be key on the downside for the remainder of the week.

As always, we suggest you to manage your risk as a top priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October 23rd 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php.

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline all next week.

Everything from the Thursday update is still in effect.

Key levels for the coming week are 1100 and 1107 to the upside. To the downside we see 1063 and 1052 as key.

As always, we suggest you to manage your risk as a top priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October
16th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php.

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline all
next week.

Our current forecast is already short.

The September high is around 1076, so this should present substantial
resistance.  A close above this area or a break on high volume will suggest
more upside.  As long as we stay below this, the potential for success of
the current forecast is high.

Key levels for the coming week are 1076 and 1100 to the upside. To the
downside we see 1052 and 1038 as key.

As always, we suggest you to manage your risk as a top priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF SUnday Forecast

The Official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October
9th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php.

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to continue up
into October 8th (next Wednesday PM to Thursday AM area).

Our anticipated key levels are 1047 and 1062 to the upside. To the
downside
we see 1013 and 1004 as key.

We urge you to manage your risk as a top priority during up cycles and be
more aggressive during the down cycles.

As this mood shifts, be aware that reports may move the market in a
negative
bias where they were ignored before while in a mode of complacency.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October 9th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php. (Click next week)

We expect the market to continue up into October 8th (next Wednesday PM to Thursday AM area).

It appears the bearish action I have been anticipating for some time is beginning to take hold as volatility increases.  Because of this it makes me a bit nervous to see the continuing up forecast on this current cycle of a particularly long length.  I do not therefore anticipate the market to be able to get much higher during this cycle and would anticipate the more aggressive downside to take hold following the 8th of the Month.

Therefore, our anticipated key levels are 1047 and 1062 to the upside. To the downside we see 1013 and 1004 as key.

We urge you to manage your risk as a top priority during up cycles and be more aggressive during the down cycles.

As this mood shifts, be aware that reports may move the market in a negative bias where they were ignored before while in a mode of complacency.

More on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff