EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for September, 2009

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October 2nd 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php.

There are no changes to the forecast all aspects referred to on Thursday’s tentative update are still in effect. We expect the market to rise next week all week starting in the Friday close / Monday open area. Sub cycles that we periodically mention are in agreement on this time area as well.

I heard a report last night that said the number of people looking for jobs is four times the number of jobs available. This is the  highest this ratio has been for as long as the government has been collecting data.  Though the mainstream media would have you believing we are in a recovery, facts say otherwise.  I believe much of the rise in the stock market since March has been from it trying to stay even in the face of a declining dollar.  In other words, it really has not gone up much in real (international) value terms.

I would expect the market to have trouble getting ahead by any substantial margin this week as the bears are seeming to gain control (at least for now).

Our key levels are 1070 and 1075 to the upside and, to the downside, 1029 and 1025 are key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October 2nd 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click Next Week).

We expect the market to rise next week all week starting in the Friday close / Monday open area. Sub cycles that we periodically mention are in agreement on this time area as well.

This last week’s forecast was off earlier in the week during the FOMC meeting, but got back on track immediately following.  We researched this FOMC report tendency and found about 70-75% of the time, the market will rally into that report.  Our new product that we have in development (working name: CycleVision) deals with just these exact types of scenarios.  We are very excited to announce that, upon completion, these types of seasonal forecasts will also be available to you because our program will alert us to the patterns in advance.  Further, these types of forecasts will be available for stocks, futures and forex in a variety of time domains.   We do not have any other particulars at this point, however, be assured, it will be an exceptional added value.

This decline we are seeing in the last couple days occurred with more gusto to the downside than we have seen in quite a while.   In the coming weeks we may be an area where we will begin to see more volatility. Median ranges/volatility on the cash index have already been rising since September 8th, confirming the above analysis.

Therefore, we do not currently expect next week’s upside range to be particularly large.

For the remainder of the week our key levels are 1060 to the upside and, to the downside, 1029 is key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September 25th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php .

There are no changes to our forecast.  We expect the market to decline next week all week.

Mainstream news Stories about the mortgage issues we have been talking about are starting to surface http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE58G5U320090917.  Be aware there could be downside with increasing amplitude ahead of us at some point.  For now, the bulls seem to be in control, but that will likely change at some point.  Manage risk accordingly.

For the remainder of the week our key levels are 1072 and 1100 to the upside.  To the downside, 1044 and 1029 are key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
September 25th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click Next
Week).

We have an down cycle all week next week.  The market has toying with our
upper key level line today.  Officially this next trend starts in the range
from tomorrow into Monday AM.  As previously said we may anticipate smaller
amplitudes during the down cycles then the up cycles on average. Some bad
news may help to send it south a little more strongly and give us some
downside range expansion. Since our focus here is the projection of market
terms of time, and not amplitude of the waves, we need to be diligent about
the kinds of ranges we can anticipate in this market environment.  Manage
risk accordingly.

For the remainder of the week our key levels are 1069 to the upside.  To
the downside, 1053 is key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
September
18th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click Next
Week).

It looks like we have an up cycle all week next week.

This past week has been tough on the forecast.  I have anticipated a
decline to go with the forecast, but as I have said quite a few times, the
bull will challenge these down forecasts until we have a catalyst to change
that mood. I am surprised however, to see the strength we are seeing.  On
the other hand it is strength of a relatively low volatility. This is
bullish. So Keep your bets bigger on the long side until we see this bull
challenged. I will also expect to see bigger moves to the upside during up
cycles, so manages risk accordingly.

The average daily range has declined into the mid 13 area consistent with
the above observation, so look for retracements following when this range
is exceeded in too short a time.

We have rolled futures contracts to the December contract. Consequently,
our prices have changed a bit.

For rest of the week, key levels are 1039 and 1043 to the upside.  To the
downside, 1029 is key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
September 11th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast for this week from the tentative forecast.

We expect the market to decline this week.  Keep in mind we continue to have an upward bias fighting the cycles but may be seeing a weakening of this tendency.

Monday is a holiday.

For rest of the week, key levels are 1026 and 1040 to the upside.  To the
downside, 998 and 991 are key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September 11th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click Next Week).

As mentioned previously, we are seeing a high on both the 3rd (today) and the 7th (Monday) because we had a double cycle working.  A report on Tuesday sent the market south against us.  The next couple days could be questionable, especially due to the fact Monday is a holiday. I am going short in here at this area though in anticipation of a decline next week.  Please ignore data for Monday as it is a holiday and beware of thin trading.

As for the anticipated magnitude we could expect, I still see a bullish bias that will not likely go away without a catalyst (bad news) sending us in another direction (a good rule of thumb here is, once the market is set in a direction, it will likely continue until a new force sends it in another direction- a basic Newtonian law I suppose.)

Volatility remains fairly steady and option pricing suggests no discount to either side which is slightly bearish to neutral.  That is why I expect a continued mood of bullishness.  Do keep an eye out for the catalyst sending us south however, as conditions are right for it between now and October 17th.

Actually I am amazed at how this market has shrugged off  all the negative stuff that is going on economically.  I suspect it may just be trying to stay even with the decline in the dollar (meaning, in real international currency terms, the stock market has gone just about nowhere) ie, the Euro-Dollar Forex pair has been in a rally matching the stock market.

Gold has taken a healthy jump in the past few days and may be in a breakout mode based on today’s close.  As a result, there may be some catalyst (as mentioned above) in the making.

For rest of the week, key levels are 1013 and 1020 to the upside.  To the downside, 991 is key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff