EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for August, 2009

Great Forecast Day by Day

Last week (Aug 24-28-09) we predicted that the market is going to decline into Friday. It did and when you look at the whole picture Thursday overextended rally did not help nor Friday’s gap up, however if you dissect it into day by day it looks amazingly accurate:

Full Forecast:

Monday:
monday

Tuesday:
tuesday

Wednesday:
wednesday

Thursday:
thursday

Friday:
friday

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending September 4th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast from the tentative forecast on Thursday.

We expect the market to be up into the middle to end of the week and then down from there.

For the coming week, key levels are 1038 and 1045 to the upside.  To the downside, the 1015 and 1007 areas are key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending
September 4th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click Next
Week)

We are seeing two cycles here.  On is up from tomorrow into the 3rd and
the other is up from tomorrow into the 7th (Labor day).  The two cycles
actually start at  slightly different times, but due to the weekend, we are
looking at a down-trend starting Friday into Monday AM area (which due to
the holiday is Tuesday AM).  I will expect the later part of next week to
be flat. Therefore we should be up into Wednesday to Friday area and then
down from there.

It is not uncommon for the market to take a bullish bias going into the
Labor day holiday followed by decline. This is all quite consistent with
our cycle as well.

All other conditions we have been discussing on an ongoing basis remain
somewhat constant.  Keep an eye for events that could precipitate a
sustained down move, but otherwise keep things safer by being more vested
in the up side and less so on the down.

We still remain at or near new high territory for the year and therefore
no longer in a trading range. As mentioned previously projecting key levels
when in new  territory is more difficult than it is when we are in a
range.

For rest of the week, key levels are 1037 to 1045 to the upside.  To the
downside, the 1016 and 1006 areas are key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official G-line forecast for the trading week ending August
28th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to be down next week through Friday.

The bulls, as previously mentioned, continue to dominate the scene even
in
the face of dismal foreclosure data and economic issues.  Therefore, this
is
not likely to change unless met by a substantial, and likely, unexpected
catalyst.  This week's cycle is down, so unless we see that catalyst, we
should expect resistance to the down cycle.

The median true range is around 16 points, so days much beyond this are
outliers and will likely be followed by pullback or consolidation.
Skepticism remains present however and option pricing still suggests
doubt
this rally is for real.  I have myself been beaten up by repeatedly fading
a
bull like this in past years where everything else was against it.  Bulls
occur when most people do not expect it.  It is best to not fight too
much,
be cautious and manage risk tightly.

We are in new high territory for the year and therefore no longer in a
trading range. It is a little more difficult projecting key levels when
in
new territory than it is when we are in a range.

For the coming week, key levels are 1037 to 1045 to the upside.  To the
downside, the 1005 and 989 area is key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August
28th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (next week)

We expect the market to be down next week through Friday.

Current forecast is working out great, market should decline tomorrow into
next week completing this week's forecast.

For the remainder of the week, key levels are 1010 to the upside.  To the
downside, the 997 area is key.

More details on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

- Vadim, Rob & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 21st 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.   We expect the market to be up next week into Friday.  However, some consolidation this week is not unlikely.

Key levels are 1021 and 1036 to the upside.  To the downside, the 989 and 979 areas are key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August 21st 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (next week)

We expect the market to be up next week into Friday.

As previously mentioned, the bulls are maintaining control and we have seen another sideways week.  This coming week would be expected to see some higher levels for the year.  Word is being put out that large numbers of economists are saying the economic slowdown is behind us.  That is unlikely in our opinion.  We expect that there will continue to be economic problems and lesser growth than other nations.  This is due to a variety of social and political issues that are tied to a refusal to address core issues. In the nearer term though, we will likely see some highs, but not too high.  We have also repetitively said that any good catalyst will bring this market down in a hurry, so please also keep in tune with news events as they develop. All other factors we watch have remained relatively unchanged, so we will not mention them again here.

For the remainder of the week, key levels are 1021 to the upside.  To the downside, the 998 area is key.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending August
14th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to be down
into Friday.

We saw an unexpected rally on Friday against the last week’s forecast that
resulted from some reports.  The bulls still remain in control of this
market so there will likely be resistance to the downside move as we have
been seeing. If we get some news that precipitates the down cycle, it will
be more pronounced.  Without this, the market may be inclined to resist the
downside in a significant way.  Keep an eye on reports etc. to be apprised
of times the market may follow the forecast more strongly.

Key levels are 1016 to the upside.  We expect 981 and 965 as key areas on
the downside.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The EminiForecaster tentative forecast for the trading week ending August 14th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Next Week)

We are seeing a cycle that declines into Friday (August 14th) per the forecast and then rise from there.

We continue to see the bulls buying into sell-off attempts which has kept the market in a choppy sideways mode at or about the 1000 area we predicted as a key level to the upside. We expect this level to hold still as a key area (1000-1006).  If we break this on good volume and on a closing basis, it may change the scenario, but for now we see the cycle as down.

Option pricing remains neutral to bearish suggesting we have the potential here to get some downside started.

Key levels as of this writing are expected to be 1000-1006 to the up side.  The 965 and 981 area are likely on the downside.

Best,

Rob Vadim & Staff

EminiForecaster Official Forecast

The EminiForecaster Official Forecast for the trading week ending August 7th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to descend this week per the forecast.

Key levels for the coming week are unchanged and are at the 1000 area to the upside. To the downside, we see  962 and 948 as key.

Wishing you the very best in all your trading endeavors.

Rob, Vadim & Staff