EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for July, 2009

EminiForecaster Tentative Forecast

The EminiForecaster tentative forecast for the trading week ending August 7th 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Next Week)

We have some opposing cycles working that may tend to make the market run a bit choppy. One of them should rise into the Tuesday or Wednesday and then decline from there.  The other is short all next week.  This being the case suggests we have some downside next week but will most likely have sideways action the first two to three days of the week followed by a decline that may last into the 17th of the month or so.

As mentioned for this current week’s forecast, we are seeing dominance by the bulls that thwarted the down cycle somewhat.  As mentioned above however, we have multiple cycles brewing that suggest it will likely be hard for the bulls to continue to dominate.  Always keep in mind, our cycles are least effective in predicting amplitude or range.  Therefore, I will very often make statements as above to try to correct from what might be expected in light of various facts.

We are currently at or about a new high for the year and have maintained this on relatively low volatility. This is bullish.  However, as also mentioned previously, there is indication in the option pricing situation that indicates there is still valid reason to be skeptical of a real lasting rally.  There are also reasons to believe that issues in the economy are consistent with this viewpoint also.  Combined with the fact we typically have a bearish larger term cycle that takes hold in these summer / fall months, we should be cautious of impending declines that may be triggered by events in the news.

Key levels as of this writing are expected to be 1000 to the up side.  The 965 and 947 area are likely on the downside.

More on Sunday…

Wishing you the very best!

Best,

Rob Vadim & Staff
P.S.  My apologies on the delay in delivery of this forecast. I am attending a conference and had some issues in getting it posted in an accurate and timely manner.  Thanks for your patience :-)

EminiForecaster Official Forecast

The EminiForecaster Official Forecast for the trading week ending July 24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to decline per the forecast.

Key levels for the coming week are the 1000 area to the upside. To the downside, we see  962 and 948 as key.

Wishing you the very best in all your trading endeavors.

Rob, Vadim & Staff

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EMF Tentative Forecast

The EminiForecaster tentative forecast for the trading week ending July 31st 2009 is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (Next Week)

We expect the market to decline next week into Friday.

We are currently at a new high for the year and have blasted through this on good volume and breadth. This is decidedly bullish, yet, our cycle for next week is down. The bulls will not likely give up too easily, so we expect downside with some resistance to a real break in that direction.

Volatility remains in decline which is also bullish.  The option price skewing is and has been out of normal balance for quite some time towards the bearish side. This is an indication there is still valid reason to be skeptical of a real lasting rally.  There is reason to believe there are still issues in the banking industry that, if signs of it do show up in the news, may trigger bearish price action. For now though the overall trend is up.

Key levels as of this writing are expected to be 985 and then 1000 to the up side.  The 950 and 940 area are likely on the downside.

We wish you all the very best in all your endeavors!

Best,

Rob Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The EminiForecaster Official Forecast for the trading week ending July 24th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to continue upwards per the forecast.

Key levels for the coming week are 917 and 907 to the downside and 943 and 952 to the upside.

EMF Tentative Forecast

The EMF Tentative Forecast for the trading week ending July 24th is now posted.

We expect the market to continue up into July 24th area.

The market has been following the current forecast. Volatility remains low at around 17 point average daily range. This is indicative of complacency.  As always, we should be concerned with events that may precipitate a decline during this season where the market tends to decline.  Option pricing remains skewed to higher pricing on the calls than the puts. This is not historically normal. These circumstance has been the case for many months and is typically a bearish condition. Seeing a true bull market is not likely under these conditions.

Key levels for the rest of the week are the 940 and 950 levels to the upside. To the downside we are seeing the 903 and 910 levels.  We have had significant upside in the last 5 trading days, so be cautious about initiating new positions at these levels with large stops.  Consolidation is likely.

As always, manage risk as a first priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The EminiForecaster tentative forecast for the trading week ending July
17th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click next
week)

We expect the market to be up into the 16th close  / 17th open area and
then
decline from there.

The market is playing around with our G-line this week, hopefully we will
get a nice drop tomorrow to finish the week.

More details on Sunday.

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The EminiForecaster official forecast for the trading week ending July 10th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast from Thursday.  All conditions remain
the same as per Thursday’s tentative forecast.

Key levels on the downside are the 890 and 880.  On the upside we see  910
and 920 above that.

This week we expect the volatility to pick up, the first couple of days of
the week should be a bounce before a drop into Friday.

As always, manage risk as a first priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The EminiForecaster tentative forecast for the trading week ending July
10th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click next
week)

We expect the market to be up into the 7th close  / 8th open area and then
decline from there.

It appears the market may be going against our current forecast after
having followed it most of the week with lesser amplitude.

As previously mentioned, we have two cycles running during this period,
one of which is short into the 17th the other has a cycle inside that
period that goes down from here into the 30th, up into the 8th and then
down to the 17th.  Originally I expected that inner signal to be of a
lesser amplitude, because  we rarely if ever get signals that last so long
as from now to the 17th.  Therefore we must be cautious that this longer
cycle may have become dominate at this time.  Due to this, we are in a
cautionary period as we shift our cycle because it is difficult to
determine the cycle based on one range expansion day (that may simply be
news induced) such as what we have today.  It also complicates forecasting
a bit more because tomorrow the market is closed. As a result, today’s
forecast will represent Sunday’s forecast because no new information will
be available at that time. For this reason, please use caution as the
cycles shift into the fall season and into the period where we have more
data on which to determine the forces that are driving this market.

Key levels for next week are the 910 and 920 area to the upside and to the
downside we are seeing 890 and 880 areas. Breaks outside these areas on a
closing basis and/or with volume indicate a trend in the direction of the
break.

Wishing you a great holiday weekend!

Rob, Vadim & Staff