EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for June, 2009

EMF Official Forecast

The EminiForecaster official forecast for the trading week ending July 3rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  All conditions remain the same as per Thursday’s tentative forecast.

Key levels on the downside are the 900-903 area and 890 below that.  On the upside we see 923 and 931 above that.

This week ends going into a holiday, so trading may thin up towards the end of the week.

As always, manage risk as a first priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The EminiForecaster tentative forecast for the trading week ending July 3rd is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click next week)

The market has followed the forecast well this week.  Due to the news induced gap on Monday, our ranges were wider than expected.

I am seeing a couple cycles right now- One of which is short into the 17th the other has a cycle inside that period that goes down from here into the 30th, up into the 8th and then down to the 17th.  I would expect that inner signal to be of a lesser amplitude, but then also we rarely if ever get signals that last so long as from now into the 17th.  For now we are tentatively down into the last day of the month.  We will see what else comes up between here and Sunday that might give us more indication as to the nature of what may be coming.  We just wanted to give you a heads up that there are a couple of slight conflicts in the cycles we are seeing that could impact the tentative Gline into next week.

Often after a fed meeting we can see a trend set up as investors let off concerns about intervention.  For now all seems pretty relaxed, but as I have mentioned previously, we have a ton of ARM mortgages resetting that nobody is talking about combined with a downward seasonal that most often takes hold from here into October.  Option price skewing continues to suggest bearish conditions.  Consequently, we should watch out for any conditions / news that could trigger a bear trend.

In the meantime, of course, we trade our weekly signals which are relatively unaffected by these bigger trends, but it is always good to know the likely next larger cycle.

For the remainder of this week, we are seeing downside key levels at the 900-903 area and upside at 923.

Wishing you a great summer and a great weekend as well!

Vadim, Rob & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The EminiForecaster official forecast for the trading week ending June 26th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to continue its ascent into mid week and then decline from there.

Key levels we see at this time are 924 and 931 to the upside and 911 and 904 to the downside.  All other factor from Thursday remain the same.

As always, manage risk as a first priority.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The EminiForecaster tentative forecast for the trading week ending June 26th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click next week)

We expect the market to continue ascending into Wednesday the 24th or Thursday the 25th and then decline from there.  We see a flat area on the line there so we are probably looking at somewhere mid day Wednesday as the high.

As previously mentioned, this is a historical seasonal high area for the year and the market often declines from this period into the fall months.  Our Gline cycles operate on a weekly time frame inside of this bigger cycle, but it is often good to have a plan for the bigger picture as well as for the weekly picture that we actually trade.

All other conditions we normally discuss are staying steady in their ranges ie.  Option skewing and volatility where we see conflicting bullish and bearish biases.  Another thing we have not mentioned for quite a while is the large number of ARM mortgages that will be resetting in the coming months and year. This is of more significant financial impact than the sub-prime debacle and will likely be impacting this (weaker) economy in the coming months as the media which has denied any mainstream coverage of these financial facts that are likely to come into fruition soon.  These are potentially bearish conditions sleeping on our horizon, so stay tuned for that.

In the near term, we expect the market to follow the forecast as it has been in recent months. Key levels for the rest of the week are 930 and 945 to the upside and 899 and 890 to the downside.

More to come on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending June 19th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

We expect the market to decline into Tuesday PM to Wednesday PM area and then rise from there.

This last week is characterized again by congestion, being at about the same level as the last signal.  We had previously mentioned this. We do not know when the range expansion will begin, but it will be coming in the near future as is seasonally expected.

The overall market ranking has returned back to a bearish reading from the temporary surge to neutral as mentioned on Thursday.  Volatility continues to drop as the daily/weekly range continues in a tight range at or near the high for the year. Over the next 10 days, the seasonal volatility is relatively non directional and may be expected to continue declining into the first week of July. This. If true, will likely mean continued congestion.  If we break below key levels, we may consider it the start of the volatility season.

Key levels for the coming week are 952 and 975 to the upside and 923 and 909 to the downside.

As always, maintain risk management and wait for the winners. We cannot extract profits out of a tight market, so the winners will come when the market chooses to deliver them.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The Eminiforecaster tentative forecast for the trading week ending June 19th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click next week)

We expect the market to decline into the June 16th to 17th area and rise from there.

We remain in a congestion mode. The current forecast, though down, is about even with the sell date and time we recommended. We did anticipate more decline than we are seeing. We do still feel the market will decline into a low next Tuesday / Wednesday and then rise from there.

Key levels for the remainder of the week are 923 to the downside and 953 on the upside.  We have rolled and/or are rolling to the September contract.

Option pricing has shifted pretty strongly to a normal  / neutral bias for the first time in many months.  Volatility continues to drop. This is contrary to what the fundamentals would suggest ie. The huge number of ARM mortgages resetting over the next 1.5 years that logic would suggest will put a big strain on the economy.  I will keep you posted as to how this develops.

We will have more on Sunday.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The EminiForecaster.com official forecast for the trading week ending June
12th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to be down
this week all week.

Current volatility suggests that current daily ranges should be in the
1.8% range.  This corresponds to about a 17 point range in the S&P.  Recent
volatility has been on the decline and option pricing has also moved
slightly bullish over the last week. However, things have been pretty quiet
in recent weeks as we have consolidated at these (multi-month) highs on low
overall volume. During this period we have seen the market continue to
rally on the most absurdly bad news.  Seasonal factors should start taking
some effect in the near future supporting some downside.

Manage risk, the winners will come, but you have to be in the game to
benefit when it does.  As I have said many times in the past, I can
outperform a lot of traders by using very low risk exposure that, in the
long run will result in better risk adjusted returns without big equity
swings.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The EminiForecaster.com official forecast for the trading week ending June 12th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to be down this week all week.

Current volatility suggests that current daily ranges should be in the 1.8% range.  This corresponds to about a 17 point range in the S&P.  Recent volatility has been on the decline and option pricing has also moved slightly bullish over the last week. However, things have been pretty quiet in recent weeks as we have consolidated at these (multi-month) highs on low overall volume. During this period we have seen the market continue to rally on the most absurdly bad news.  Seasonal factors should start taking some effect in the near future supporting some downside.

Manage risk, the winners will come, but you have to be in the game to benefit when it does.  As I have said many times in the past, I can outperform a lot of traders by using very low risk exposure that, in the long run will result in better risk adjusted returns without big equity swings.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The Eminiforecaster.com tentative forecast for the trading week ending May 12th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click Next Week)

We expect the market to head down all week next week.  This is a long down cycle that will probably last into the following week.

I am seeing some possible continued congestion into Monday and then down.

This current week is characterized by congestion as previously stated.  The forecast was correspondingly off as it is difficult to project direction in congestion short cycles.  I expect next week to be more trend oriented as it looks right now.

For the rest of the week, the 949 area is key and 922 to the downside.

We may see the beginning of this down trend as early as tomorrow or Monday.

As always, manage your risk as a first priority.

Very Best Wishes,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Stock Market Wisdom of the Ages

There are many stock market sayings that have been passed down from the sages of old; “The trend is your friend., Buy the Rumor, and sell the news, Always buy on strength”, to name just a few. There are hundreds of these sayings. I love them all because, after all, why would anyone not want to receive the benefits of wisdom of the sages of old?

One of my favorites is “Never hold (or carry) a losing position over night.” This advice sounds profound, meaningful and wise, sure enough; until you start thinking about it ;-)

What exactly does it mean to not hold a position over night (winning or losing)? Certainly this must have some valid purpose. If I had bought minutes before the close and the market went lower, should I then panic in the seconds before the close and exit? What if my entry were just plain random (no particular logic behind the buy or sell) and I had a money management method that turned such positions into winners. Should I code my secret money management system to exit just because my random entry was, well, a little more random? I think not.

It is always important to scrutinize words of wisdom coming from any source. A lot of this kind of thinking comes from a day trading mentality. I often marvel how people can even use a word such as “day trading” in a market that trades around the clock like the Emini S&P contracts. This contract gets started on Sunday night and stops only for a short time each day for system maintenance in the afternoons. It then runs until Friday close.

Oh yes, the markets have changed since the days of old when many of these sayings may have had at least some level of validity. So, in this modern era we live in, perhaps the saying would be changed to, “never hold a losing position over the weekend?” I don’t know. It still doesn’t seem to add up to anything making any sense at all to me. This particular saying couldn’t possibly have any validity unless it was followed by the word “if” or “unless.”

For example, don’t hold a losing position over night if you are in a margin call. Now there’s one that makes good sense. Brokers get really mad when you do this to them. In the event your alarm clock is broken; it pretty much guarantees you will get a morning wakeup call from your broker. Hey, who says brokers don’t give full service anymore?

I can think of another good reason to not hold a losing position over night. When you don’t want to be holding the position (for some good reason).

Still looking for sage advice on the stock market? I certainly hope not. Count your blessings! Give thanks we have been given a sound mind of our own. After all, if we didn’t have that, then who’s mind exactly might it be we would delight in having possession of (I am sure this is correct grammar)?

Next time you are thinking of a market asseveration to base your future market earnings upon, be sure to use your noggin. If you are not up for the task, I’d welcome your asking me to write another article on whatever great words of perspicacious market wisdom you might come upon. I’d be absolutely overjoyed to share what sound mind I have remaining ;-)