EminiForecaster Blog and Update History

Accurate Stock Market Forecasts for the Emini SP and other Futures

Archive for May, 2009

EMF Official Forecast

The EminiForecaster.com official forecast for the trading week ending June 5th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to continue up this week for the whole week peaking at or about Friday.

We are very near or at a one month high on the Emini.  If we break higher on momentum and/or on a closing basis by any margin, it would be quite bullish.  Also keep in mind, as previously mentioned,  that without regard to the forecast, some consolidation is expected. Especially at these high levels.

Key levels this week are 947 and 969 to the upside and 885 and 876 to the downside.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Tentative Forecast

The EminiForecaster.com tentative forecast for the trading week ending June 5th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click next week)

We expect the market to start upward as of tomorrow or Monday and continue its ascent for the whole week.

This short week and the holiday and another bailout (as of today for GM) made this week a bit tricky. Holidays always make forecastin more difficult because there is less data to go on.    I do expect the market to finish this cycle tomorrow and start heading sideways to up. Though I do not detect this will occur in a straight line.

I use a variety of cycles to determine the official cycle each week that we post to the website and am currently seeing a couple cycles. Ones that bottom on the 29th- the 3rd and another that peaks on the 5th while the other cycle is looking like it peaks on the 11th or so.  This interaction of cycles might suggest we are near the peak of a bigger cycle as I have previously mentioned.  Because these cycles are flowing together here and now, it makes forecasting a bit more difficult than usual and suggests we may be in somewhat of a consolidation mode.  With that said, the market should be sideways to up next week as it looks right now with possible increasing volatility and range.

We are beginning to see a rise in volatility in the last week of around 20% which suggests a down market. Option skewing also suggests the same.  We have been in a fairly tight congestion pattern since May 8th with the S&P cash varying between  879 and 930.  Therefore, much upside is not expected in the next week. If we do break to the upside above the 930 area, then I have been wrong.

Key levels for next week are 912 and 924 to the upside and 877 to 866 on the downside.  Breaking 877 on a closing basis on the Emini S&P would be quite bearish.

As always, manage risk as a first priority and big winners will come.  We cannot control what the market delivers to us in terms of range.  Often, when I look back at the end of the year, it was a handful of trades that made my year.  Having traded systems for many years, I have witnessed this over and over again.  This is also the observation of the truly successful traders I know.   As a result, much of the time, I am managing my risk exposure and then I hit some big winners at various intervals.  It never comes when I necessarily want it to, so it is like fishing; most of the time you keep your lines in the water and baited so you are positioned for a big one to hit your line.

Wishing you the very best!

Rob, Vadim & Staff

EMF Official Forecast

The Eminiforecaster.com  forecast for the trading week ending May 29th is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast and we expect the market to ascend into the Tuesday PM / Wednesday AM area and then decline from that area.

Monday is a holiday. The market will trade into 10:30 AM central time and then be closed the rest of the day.

Be cautious as we go forward of increasing bearish sentiment. As mentioned previously, there are many factors that would cause an abandonment of this rally we have been having since March 9th.  As we go forward then, we would therefore expect bigger declines during our down cycles and smaller advances in the market.  On the up cycles, we are inclined to expect less overall advance and less decline than when we are in the down cycle forecasts. You might adjust accordingly in anticipation of this.  The one single factor that I believe was most influential in making me successful as a trader is anticipating what kind of overall market environment I was going to be in and adjusting my trading around that.

Key levels for this week are 895-900 on the upside. To the downside we expect to see some action (or congestion) around the 875 level and more critical support around the 861 area and 851 areas.

Wishing you the very best in your trading!

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The EminiForecaster tentative forecast for the trading week ending May 29th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click next
week).

We expect the market to cycle up into Tuesday’s close / Wednesday’s open
area and then decline from there.

This week’s forecast was going great and suddenly turned south on us. We
do expect the cycle to continue up from here into next week per the
forecast.

However, use caution as we believe the truth of the real state of the
economy will begin to be recognized as we go into the fall months. This
downward cycle which could begin at any time.

One example of this is the consideration by many countries to drop the US
currency as the world’s “reserve” currency (one news source is saying
Russia has already dropped the dollar… if this is true, others will likely
follow).  These countries no longer hold the USA in high economic regard.
If this becomes fully realized, then it could have a highly negative impact
on the US economy and stock market.

Also, in the coming months a record number of ARM mortgages are resetting.
This will cause a very large number of defaults into an already weak
economy (unlike the strong economy that was suddenly presented with a
“sub-prime debacle.”  This pattern of defaults will likely continue,
peaking in late 2011.  A graph from the IMF on this topic can be seen here:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html

Current earning levels of the stock market are at record lows for as far
back as there is data.

Therefore, as we move forward in the coming months, I fully expect shorts
to become substantially more lucrative than longs.  This is consistent, as
mentioned, with an already existing seasonal tendency and current option
price skewing.  This is not meant to be interpreted in any other way than
as a warning that at some point we could turn south here quite aggressively
as the lie of our current economic state comes into more broad awareness.

Key levels for the next day or so are:  905 and 914 to the upside and 877
and 866 to the downside.

As always, use caution in your money management.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim. Rob & Staff

Last Two Forecasts!

Sunday Forecast

The Eminiforecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 22nd is now
posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.

The forecasts have been running accurately in recent weeks, so we
anticipate continued accuracy.  The current forecast is bullish and is of
long duration that may last into the middle of next week.  As a result, we
see this week as being up overall.  There are however bearish forces that
appear to be grabbing hold of the market, so use caution.  As mentioned
previously, the official bearish seasonal starts mid June and typically has
the market down into mid October. This seasonal is significant and goes
back as far as there is data for the stock market.

Analysis of option pricing remains bearish to neutral over the next month
or so. Volatility is steady which suggests a fairly complacent or bullish
environment exists. It is the writer’s opinion the market has been bullish
since Mid March based on governmental and Federal Reserve spin and not
based on solid growth, earnings and business facts.  In fact, this rally
began with the catalyst of a change in accounting rules that allowed Wall
Street to hold items on their books at the purchase price (as opposed to
the mark-to-market value). This allowed institutions to account for values
of assets on their books at higher values than they are worth.  Be cautious
of the news, smoke, mirrors and false perceptions.

Historically, there is about a 70% occurrence of a decline in volatility
between now and the middle of next week.  This is a bullish pattern that
agrees  with our current forecast.

Key levels for the coming week are 910 and 927 to the upside. To the
downside we see 866 and the 855 level.

As always, manage your risk and the winners will come.

Wishing you the very best,

Vadim, Rob & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The Eminiforecaster.com forecast for the trading week ending May 22nd is
now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click next
week)

We expect the market to move up into the end of next week.  The current
forecast is down as of today’s close/tomorrow’s open, so we will hold
that
position until next Friday PM / Monday open.

This week's forecast is looking very good, let's see if we can make a
double bottom tomorrow, though this rally into next week may start
tomorrow. More info will be out this Sunday.

- EMF Team

Sunday Forecast

The EminiForecaster official forecast for the trading week ending May 15th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast.  We expect the market to decline all
week into Friday and then rise from there.

Key levels at this time are 885 and 898 to the downside and 927 and 954 to
the upside.

The values on which the intraday alerts are based are at high levels,
meaning, if the trend changes as anticipated, a false trigger to the long
side may occur Monday.  Be cautious as we anticipate a shift in trend.

Wishing you the very best!

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Thursday Forecast

The Eminiforecaster.com forecast for the trading week ending May 15th is
now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php (click next
week)

We expect the market to decline into the end of next week.  The current
forecast is down as of today’s close/tomorrow’s open, so we will hold that
position until next Friday PM / Monday open.

The current forecast has been accurate in the absence of any unexpected
news and government interaction. As always, we expect the forecasts to do
better in these cases unless otherwise stated.

This up move in the market that has been dominating since March 9th may be
starting to wear thin-  Though the seasonal runs into mid June to continue
higher before the fall bear seasonal begins.  These cycles are much longer
than our forecasting cycles, but they are worth mentioning as we approach
that time.   Our overall market rating remains bearish which supports the
market is not normal and will likely see some significant downside in the
future.  For now however, the volatility remains calm overall, which is
bullish.

Key levels for the rest of the week are 927 and 936 to the upside and 889
and 878 to the downside.

More to come on Sunday.

Just a reminder that you can select email alerts for daily alerts here -

http://eminiforecaster.com/amember/member.php

Wishing you the very best in all your endeavors,

Rob, Vadim & Staff

Sunday Forecast

The official EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending May 8th
is now posted.

http://eminiforecaster.com/members/membersblog/forecaster.php

There are no changes to the forecast from Thursday’s tentative forecast.

Due to the Fed meeting last week, we had a lot of shifting in the market.
The forecast did not follow as anticipated. Therefore,  we may experience
some consolidation that is not evident on the forecast for this week. As
always be cautious as we go forward.  It may be prudent to look for
confirmation in the alerts early in the week.

Key levels we anticipate are 885 and 935 to the upside and 862 and 850 to
the downside.

Wishing you the very best in your trading in the coming week.

Vadim, Rob & Staff