The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending July 8th is now posted.  (click “Next Week”)

We expect the market to decline into the Thursday the 7th PM / Friday the 8th AM area and then rise from there.

We are seeing resistance at the 1324 area. There is some possibility for the 1335 area, but the cycle is showing down from here, so hopefully the  1317.50 should hold for this cycle.  To the downside, we are seeing the 1281 area at this time, but in the nearer term we are also seeing 1296 as support.

Daily ranges have been contracted significantly in recent sessions with the several day rally we are seeing.  Volatility cycling recently has been different than usual, probably due to news releases at various times in the cycle (ie. Greece and the FED etc.). The $VIX index is now at 16.5 as of this writing, which corresponds to about a 1% daily range (about 13 points). Keep this in mind when placing orders as it is best to place orders where you are within that margin off a low or high when trading so stops are less likely to be hit.

As always manage your risk tightly and preserve capital.

This is a Holiday weekend, so the current tentative forecast will stand also as the official forecast, and there will be no update on Sunday and no trading on Monday.

Wishing you the very best, and a wonderful Holiday!

EMF Team