The tentative EminiForecaster forecast for the trading week ending October 1st is now posted.

There are no changes to the forecast. We expect the market to decline next week all week.

Be cautious during this down cycle as the bulls appear to be in charge and may vigorously defend declines (especially in the first couple days of the week or so).   Declines that are precipitated by news may be more vigorous. Basic key levels are 1145 and 1162 on the upside and 1118 and 1100 on the downside.  As always, look to counter breakouts of these levels that occur on low volume- especially on a closing basis.

The Federal Reserve meeting has thrown a bit of a bone into the trend we expected for this week and has caused volatility to increase.  Though, as we have seen, the market appears to be resilient to the down gaps like we saw this morning.  The cycle does appear to be down going forward through the end of the month, and starting on Monday.

In terms of the anticipated range from last week, we did manage to see the key resistance level a couple times during the week making for some good trading (or profit taking) opportunity there.   This morning we tested the low for the week making this a strange week, with most of the range occurring in overnight sessions and gaps etc.

As always, manage risk prudently, next week we might see more trending and range expansion than this current week.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob, Vadim & Staff