We are excited to announce our new service called EdgeStocks.com

This website is dedicated to providing you with Cycle-Vision stocks
which are hand picked for you.

Right now we are looking for serious traders who are interested in
the BETA program of our new service.

PS: Available BETA spots are very limited so please make sure to
sign up today.

We see the market as sideways to down in the next several days. Therefore accumulating some stocks at better prices than the open on the start date for the trade may be a good strategy. I often like entering on down days if the opportunity presents itself. The bulls are in control and we are seeing that some strong buying is likely to come in around Thursday and Friday.

I have posted some stocks from a variety of screens over the last several days from The Cycle Vision program. I have not spent a lot of time going over the charts. Some are around new highs and others are in consolidation- some are higher priced and some are lower. Therefore, I have selected a variety for you from the best trades for the year on any of these stocks on the CV program.

Wishing you the very best,

Rob

download spreadsheet cv-trds20100309-1

One really great thing about the Cycle-Vision program is we can see the collective cycling of all the stocks we are testing. This becomes an over-all market indicator because it shows us when all the stock cycles line up. At these times, we expect to see big moves as the collective cycling gains strength to one particular direction.

During periods when the market is in decline, CV will naturally deliver fewer long trades than it will during times when the market is gearing up for a rise. In some tests we have conducted, Long CV trades during these periods tend to lose less than the market as a whole during declines. Put another way, because their cycle is up, a CV long trade resists the selling that occurs during overall market declines.

As a result of the current cycling, we do not have a lot of trades this week. Hopefully we will see some sell off to provide us with new buying opportunities in the next week or so.

For now then (keeping in mind we are getting near the top of an intermediate term cycle), I reserve putting out any new trades past the GMCR and SBAC trades we currently have recommended.

A couple of tips on managing the current winners: GMCR has gone up to test new highs. There is nothing wrong with taking profits up there after a nice run-up. SBAC has been a little slower to start and is breaking higher today.

The word Ecstatic comes can be traced to a root meaning, to stand beside one’s self. Always remember to take a occasional step outside and enjoy life.

We have generated some stock trades for Monday from the CV program.

I started with a list of stocks that were trending upwards and have positive earnings growth. With the CV program, we can analyze the stocks in multiple time dimensions simultaneously. This is very powerful. I analyzed a list of stocks in 65 different time dimensions and found there were no shorts on any of them for these stocks in any of the 65 time dimensions over the length of the trade.

I will provide you with two examples below, and on one of these there are two trades; one shorter term and designed to maximize daily return and the other to maximize the overall return.

Symbol=GMCR
Buy 3/1 open
Sell 3/17
Median Return = 10%
Win%=90

Symbol=GMCR
Buy 3/1 open
Sell 5/5
Median Return = 23%
Win%=100%

Symbol=SBAC
Buy 3/1 open
Sell 3/16
Median Return = 10%
Win%=100

Our overall market analysis for CV sees a lot of stock market buying coming in around 3/13. Therefore, shorter term trades may be more prudent.

Max adverse excursions can be large in some cases, so options (preferably in-the-money) can be used.

Past performance on these trades is not necessarily indicative of future performance for that same trade. Use prudence trading.

Update: C-V stock trades

We are happy to share seasonal trades with you from the project we have been working on for the last 17 months.

The code name is Cycle-Vision and it is a tool to identify highly reliable trades in ANY market including stocks, futures and forex.

Right now we would like to share with you some commodities trades that Cycle-Vision has produced for us.

We have been trading some of the trade recommendations from Cycle-Vision and have been making consistent profits with what is probably more important very reliable high percentage trades.

Here is a list of current or coming up trades for commodities that we have put together for you -

Windows users - download spreadsheet

Mac users - download numbers

Let us know what you think.

More on this topic -

The Best Choice in Seasonal and Cycles Trading Software

Stock Market Cycles - The Key to Profits

- Rob & Vadim
———–

Last week (Aug 24-28-09) we predicted that the market is going to decline into Friday. It did and when you look at the whole picture Thursday overextended rally did not help nor Friday’s gap up, however if you dissect it into day by day it looks amazingly accurate:

Full Forecast:

Monday:

Tuesday:

Wednesday:

Thursday:

Friday:

Here are a few of our latest forecasts -

Sing up today!

There are many stock market sayings that have been passed down from the sages of old; “The trend is your friend., Buy the Rumor, and sell the news, Always buy on strength”, to name just a few. There are hundreds of these sayings. I love them all because, after all, why would anyone not want to receive the benefits of wisdom of the sages of old?

One of my favorites is “Never hold (or carry) a losing position over night.” This advice sounds profound, meaningful and wise, sure enough; until you start thinking about it ;-)

What exactly does it mean to not hold a position over night (winning or losing)? Certainly this must have some valid purpose. If I had bought minutes before the close and the market went lower, should I then panic in the seconds before the close and exit? What if my entry were just plain random (no particular logic behind the buy or sell) and I had a money management method that turned such positions into winners. Should I code my secret money management system to exit just because my random entry was, well, a little more random? I think not.

It is always important to scrutinize words of wisdom coming from any source. A lot of this kind of thinking comes from a day trading mentality. I often marvel how people can even use a word such as “day trading” in a market that trades around the clock like the Emini S&P contracts. This contract gets started on Sunday night and stops only for a short time each day for system maintenance in the afternoons. It then runs until Friday close.

Oh yes, the markets have changed since the days of old when many of these sayings may have had at least some level of validity. So, in this modern era we live in, perhaps the saying would be changed to, “never hold a losing position over the weekend?” I don’t know. It still doesn’t seem to add up to anything making any sense at all to me. This particular saying couldn’t possibly have any validity unless it was followed by the word “if” or “unless.”

For example, don’t hold a losing position over night if you are in a margin call. Now there’s one that makes good sense. Brokers get really mad when you do this to them. In the event your alarm clock is broken; it pretty much guarantees you will get a morning wakeup call from your broker. Hey, who says brokers don’t give full service anymore?

I can think of another good reason to not hold a losing position over night. When you don’t want to be holding the position (for some good reason).

Still looking for sage advice on the stock market? I certainly hope not. Count your blessings! Give thanks we have been given a sound mind of our own. After all, if we didn’t have that, then who’s mind exactly might it be we would delight in having possession of (I am sure this is correct grammar)?

Next time you are thinking of a market asseveration to base your future market earnings upon, be sure to use your noggin. If you are not up for the task, I’d welcome your asking me to write another article on whatever great words of perspicacious market wisdom you might come upon. I’d be absolutely overjoyed to share what sound mind I have remaining ;-)

One of the very worst things that can happen when you begin to trade a new trading system is to start losing right out of the gate. Just about anyone will tell you this occurs to them, “every time” (let me hear a big Amen). This tendency of human behavior is not just limited to trading a system you just found or created either. When I managed hundreds of client accounts, they would all pile in at certain times and leave at others that guaranteed they would lose. They did this with such remarkable accuracy buying my equity highs and selling my equity lows, it would amaze you. Why does this occur and how does one get the best (instead of the worst) of it?

When one is drawn to a trading program, it is because it is doing well. Never the opposite. Ever get an evening call from a broker in some boiler room in New York pitching you with a money manager’s performance that is losing, saying, “Mr. Prospect, this money manager has lost so much money recently, that if you come in with him now, you will surely be a winner?” I didn’t think so. So let’s recognize we are drawn to a new trading system or trading program at any given time because it is doing well. Step one to avoiding the inevitable is to track the trading program for a while to wait for it to not be at a new equity high.

It is simple; buy low and sell high. Maybe nobody ever told you that phrase applied to the equity curve on the money manager or trading system you were looking at, but the principle is solid.

On a trading system that trades the Emini S&P contracts or the SPYders shares etc. I would wait for a drawdown to occur that was average before entering. So you say to the broker, call me back when this money manager is losing, not winning (TIP: that might help to get the broker off the phone).

In the event I am already trading the system, and wish to add contracts for compounding, I use this simple rule of thumb: I wait to increase my equity enough to add a contract while the system is in a new drawdown from an equity high I benefited from. In other words, I will make enough on the system so that after drawing down from the high, I still have enough to add the new contract or shares. What this does, is it increases the probability I will not draw down while doubled up. This is also very important from a psychological stand point as well, because when your equity fluctuations double from having added new contracts or shares, it will likely be a bit unnerving at first; particularly if you are not up. This strategy helps to protect your earnings.

How do I get out of a trading system or money manager I am trading? I get out while I am ahead. If the system is making too much money too fast, it will likely implode, so it is best to get out while the going is really good. Oh yes, you might leave some good gains on the table at some point, but in the long run, this has always proven to be right. Look at any S&P or NASDAQ chart from late in the year 2000 and you will see what I mean. When the curve goes exponential, get out. Buy something that’s low, quiet and poised for growth.

These simple principles will serve you well, but it is hard to do. Grit your teeth and do the opposite of the herd as I have described above. Will it be a money management bonanza? Maybe. If you can stick with it, apply the above principles and manage your risk, I’ll will see you in the winner’s circle next year.